Why the Crash Calls Are Weeks Too Late

Hey trader,

The headlines this weekend were enough to make your head spin.

Tech barons called for AI regulation. Saudi Arabia shut down oil pipelines. By Sunday night, the “big crash” calls were everywhere.

Market internals have been weakening for weeks. The crowd is only noticing now. Their timing never ceases to amaze me.

Let me save you the panic.

That sector leaderboard everyone is pointing at is a weeks-old warning, not a fresh one.

Tech has been outperforming underneath it the whole time.

I’ll show you both, then tell you where I stand going into the Fed.

Bears Are Getting Comfortable at the Wrong Time

You could cut the tension in the air with a knife.

One look at the sector leaderboard explains why so many traders are borderline hysterical.

Energy is running the entire table. That’s hardly a risk-on signal.

Here’s the part the panic crowd is missing. Energy didn’t take over the leaderboard this weekend. It’s held that spot across every window on the table, from one week out to a full year.

Defensive leadership like this shows up routinely near the end of market cycles. The signal already fired, and it fired weeks ago.

So the real question isn’t whether the warning exists. It’s what the market did with it.

The answer is nothing. Internals softened, energy kept leading, and the indices refused to break down. A market that absorbs a warning that long and holds its ground is telling you something about its underlying bid.

Nothing lasts forever, and I do think the oil market keeps causing problems down the line. In the near term, this looks way overblown.

Tech Is Coiling While the Crowd Screams

Late-cycle energy leadership and a tech rally can coexist, and right now they are.

The Nasdaq has outperformed the other major indices two weeks in a row. That kind of quiet relative strength rarely makes headlines.

Technology and communications are coiled up and ready for their next move. The Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) just closed at its second-highest weekly level in history.

All of this is happening while the crowd insists the end is here for AI.

I don’t like being a contrarian for the sake of it. I’m a trend-based trader first, and the trend in tech hasn’t broken.

Staying bullish tech and AI isn’t a brave call. It’s the boring one.

Where I Stand Going Into the Fed

Positions matter more than opinions, so here’s my book going into the announcement:

• Long tech
• Long communications
• Neutral oil

I’m neutral on oil rather than short, because respecting a trend and chasing it are different things. Energy has earned its leadership across every timeframe on that table. I just don’t want to add to it here.

Drawdowns are a normal cost of holding a trend. They don’t invalidate one.

Let’s see what the Fed brings this week, and whether all the doom and gloomers were wrong again.

The Fed decision lands this week, and the resolution out of this coil is going to be fast in one direction or the other.

I’ll be walking through my positioning in real time inside the Trinity Trade as it happens. Come sit in the room where the trades get made.

Join the Trinity Trade

Take Care,

Gianni Di Poce