Bounce Earned — Or Borrowed?
by Tony Rago
Nice bounce overnight, and the first question is always whether the move already did the work without us. NQ is up roughly 500 handles off the lows, while ES has rebounded about 100 — solid relief after the pressure we saw earlier. Now it’s on the bulls to prove something. I’m watching to see if pullbacks can be defended and if we can hold a higher low above 6,800 on ES and 24,500 on NQ. Those levels matter because holding them keeps this bounce in play rather than turning it into just another dead-cat rally.
Zooming out, I’m still bearish on the higher time frames, which keeps the door open for a fade at the open and potentially a more range-bound tape as we close out the week. If sellers regain control and we get directional to the downside, the overnight lows come right back into focus as natural targets. Until then, it’s about reading the open, respecting the volatility, and letting price show its hand. There’s still plenty of juice in this tape — no need to rush it. ⚡️
👉 Full breakdown is inside today’s Pre-Market Playbook. Check it out here and trade it smart.
