Gianni Di Poce spent the last two weeks warning about downside risk in this market. Today he reversed course.
The risk reward has flipped back in favor of the bulls.
One observation triggered the shift. S&P futures never took out last Thursday’s low.
Markets correct through time instead of price. This tape has been doing exactly that for weeks.
The Nasdaq broke down and cut through the mid June lows. The Dow refuses to cooperate with the bearish story. It sits less than 1,000 points from its all-time high.
Energy has been the top performing sector three weeks running. That leadership cracked hard this week.
Crude oil fell 7.8% yesterday. It dropped another 4.5% today.
Gianni traces the whole bullish setup back to that oil break. Dollar strength has been riding on oil prices this entire stretch.
Oil pushes rates higher. Higher rates pull capital into the dollar. Falling oil unwinds the chain.
Bonds are already well off the lows of the month. Lower rates feed tech and consumer discretionary directly.
Fed Chair Warsh speaks tomorrow. Gianni would not rule out a data dependent tone given that the last inflation readings came in negative.
Here is what Gianni broke down in tonight’s video:
- S&P futures posted higher lows on the intraday timeframe and never breached last Thursday’s low. Gianni stays open to the bullish case as long as bulls defend 7,400.
- Crude oil dropped 7.8% Monday and 4.5% today, putting it 10% to 15% below last week’s highs. Gianni watches $70 to $75 for a higher low to form.
- Semiconductors keep lagging with sentiment turning sour. Gianni calls the group dead money for the rest of 2026.
- Salesforce sits on a support shelf buyers defended in 2018, 2020, and 2022. Gianni is long the name with a target at 360.
- Apple printed a new all-time high today. Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon report next, and Gianni sees Microsoft resting on support going back to early 2024.
Software carries the opportunity here. The companies that leverage AI will thrive. The redundant ones disappear.
This tape no longer pays traders for buying broken names and hoping. Selectivity has become the entire edge.
Rotation is the name of the game into the end of the quarter.
