If the Fog of War Has You Off Balance, There’s Always Clarity in Price

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Stocks are chopping around all over the place today, drifting lower overall.

The energy sector, as tracked by the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) ETF is absolutely ripping to the upside; it’s up more than 3.5% for the five-day and has added more than 1% today alone. A couple of names in the sector especially are doing well. We’ll talk about what a surge in energy means for the bull market’s prospects shortly.

Of course, an important reason for energy’s surge is the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel.

Headline risks are elevated but when you’re trading a volatile tape like this, remember to stay focused on what matters most – the price action. Nothing else warrants making a decision. And based on what I’m seeing in the tape, there are some reasons to believe this conflict in the Middle East, as serious as it is, may not last very long.

Against this backdrop, I’m looking specifically at precious metals; gold is practically asleep at the wheel right now. I also expect something to break either in bonds or the dollar, because the fact that they’re rallying together with oil… it’s just not going to last long.

Here’s what we’ll do about it…

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