Silver’s 30-day implied volatility just broke 100%. I’ve been in this business a long time. I cannot name another liquid commodity product that has ever hit that level.
We’re looking at silver like it’s a meme stock.
SLV traded almost 3 million option contracts today. GLD traded another 3 million. That’s crisis-level activity in the metals market while the S&P sits near all-time highs.
This is not about being long or short gold. It’s about what’s wrong with this picture.
Gold closed up $300 in a single day. Silver is threatening its all-time high. You need a new word for parabolic.
Meanwhile, the market feels paralyzed. $10 trillion worth of earnings hit within 48 hours. Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla all reported tonight. The initial reactions were mixed. Conference calls will determine direction by tomorrow morning.
The Fed announcement today was a nothing burger. Nobody cared. Earnings now matter more than the Fed because the expected move tomorrow is $44, higher than what was priced for today’s FOMC.
Here’s what caught my attention in tonight’s video:
- Meta is expecting a $50 move but has only moved $30. The conference call could push it toward a $710 billion market cap or send it right back down.
- Microsoft is down about $20 against a $26 expected move. That gap leaves room for a dramatic reversal on the call.
- Tesla is up $12 against a $25 expected move. CapEx discussion could swing the stock hard in either direction.
- VIX is still sitting at 100 with the S&P at all-time highs. That’s a high-volatility, high-risk environment with problems bubbling up in commodities.
I said it plainly today. There’s upside potential in this market. But downside convexity is real. We could grind to 7,300. We could also drop to 6,300.
Even if there’s a 65% chance we go higher, if we go down, it’s going to be ugly.
