Rolling into the holiday week with a market that refuses to cool off, a momentum midline that keeps getting reclaimed, and Japan dumping fresh liquidity into the global system — not exactly the calm-before-Thanksgiving session you’d expect. Add a flu and a long car ride ahead of me, and the only thing hotter than this tape is my mood.
Key Takeaways
Momentum Is Back, but Sellers Still Have Leverage
- Back above the 20- and 50-day EMAs, which is precisely where funds love to trim into strength.
- We’re sitting in that uneasy yellow zone — equilibrium on the surface, but selling pressure hasn’t fully released.
- Friday’s half-day could easily deliver a surprise dump if liquidity thins out.
Nvidia’s Valuation Stress Is Becoming the Market’s Stress
- Chinese restrictions, new competitive pressure from hyperscalers, and whispers of multiple compression are all converging.
- A stock this levered and this ETF-heavy can’t wobble without dragging risk appetite with it.
- Early signs of rotation into Google, industrials, banks, materials — basically anything with a less feverish multiple.
Rotation Into Real-Economy Sectors Is Quietly Strengthening
- Materials, industrials, and healthcare are attracting actual flows, not just speculative squeezes.
- Selling pressure in the Russell is falling, which is exactly what we needed to see after a messy month and a half.
- Japan’s stimulus injection is feeding momentum globally — another chapter in the long-running “don’t fight central banks” saga.
What I’m Watching
This tape hinges on whether the rotation can sustain itself. If money keeps leaking out of crowded AI mega-caps and into materials, industrials, and value, the market’s foundation actually improves even if the headlines look messy. Nvidia remains the linchpin — a genuine valuation reset there would force ETF rebalancing, unwind leverage, and reshape leadership quickly. On the flip side, Japan’s stimulus and improving breadth give December a real shot if we can survive Friday without a liquidity-driven rug pull.
Holiday weeks like to cause trouble, but beneath the surface, this one is showing early signs of healthier structure — even if the path is jagged. I’ll pick things up again once I’ve endured the six-hour, Taylor Swift–filled drive and the inevitable overcooked turkey debate. Ready for the next one whenever you are.
Until next time,
Garrett Baldwin
TheoTRADE
