Why Factories Are Eating Inflation (And What It Means For Your Trades)

Manufacturing PMI just hit 53. Services PMI climbed too.

Both above 50. Both showing expansion and growth.

Sounds bullish, right? Here’s what the numbers aren’t telling you…

Factories are getting squeezed. Hard.

Input prices are rising faster than output prices. That means manufacturers are eating inflation instead of passing it through to consumers.

They’re literally giving away their margins to keep demand strong.

Here’s why this matters for your trades: While industrials struggle with compressed margins, someone else is making a killing.

Basic materials companies. The ones selling TO the factories.

Look at today’s action: XLB (basic materials) up. XLI (industrials) down.

That’s not a coincidence. 

That’s the margin transfer in real time.

I’m seeing 15-20% opportunities in companies positioned on the right side of this squeeze:

• Newmont just hit a 52-week high (gold miners with peak margins)
  • Freeport threatening breakout to $48 (20% upside from here)
  • PKG breaking out with massive volume (targeting $240)
  • CF Industries attempting $100 (another 20% move)

But here’s the key insight most traders are missing…

Even if gold stays flat, mining companies are printing money at current margins. When PMI growth accelerates their volumes, profits explode.

Same story in packaging. If manufacturing is really expanding, everything needs to be packaged and shipped.

The data is telling two stories:

1. Growth is real (PMI above 50)
2. Margin pressure is real (input vs output prices)

Smart money follows the margins. Basic materials have them. Industrials don’t.

I’m targeting the suppliers, not the squeezed.

The complete sector breakdown – including the specific levels I’m watching and why this margin dynamic could drive 20% moves – is in today’s video.

-Blake Young