Brandon Chapman just proved your 2025 gains were an illusion.
The S&P 500 returned 17% last year. But measured against gold, you actually went backwards. It took 24 GLD shares to buy one SPX share at the start of 2025. Today it takes only 16.
That’s not wealth creation. That’s purchasing power destruction.
The market rallied half a percent today. Brandon says this isn’t the bottom you’re looking for.
Volatility signals are flashing the same warning we saw before the October and November selloffs. When the three month to one month VIX ratio pushes higher like it is now, history shows a 5% to 10% correction follows.
In today’s video, Brandon breaks down:
- The S&P hasn’t generated positive real returns in gold terms for 30 years
- Gold and silver’s unwind didn’t lift equities. The dollar is now a headwind, not a tailwind
- The best long opportunities came after November 20th and October lows when volatility signals flipped
- Option flow in GLD shows no bullish speculation. Traders are buying put spreads and closing calls
Brandon’s bottom line is clear. You can set whatever S&P target you want for 2026. But the volatility markets are pricing significantly greater downside risk than upside opportunity. This is a time to hold more cash and consider hedges.
