https://youtu.be/6VSH7pNONXo XP jumped 31% today. Someone bought 50,000 calls on it last Friday. Brandon Chapman caught that print and several others before Brazil exploded. The options market flagged this rally days before the headlines hit. The Brazilian ETF climbed 12.5% today. Brandon ties the move to the Brazilian election, where Flavio Bolsonaro may be expected to finish ahead of Lula da Silva. Petrobras rallied 11.5% on top of it. Brazil was the clear winner across global equities. Brandon found the setup sitting in the options tape over a week ago. Bullish out of the money calls kept hitting EWZ and other Brazilian names near the lows. Those buyers put dealers on the hook. Dealers sold the calls, so a rally forces them to buy stock to hedge. The stocks ran overnight and over the weekend. Dealers had to chase, and the gamma squeeze did the rest. Brandon compares it to

https://youtu.be/2n1bk7fkBVI The S&P 500 trades just off its record highs. Nearly 60% of its stocks sit in bear market territory. I see about 300 points of upside from here. I see about 800 points of downside. That lopsided setup drove everything I covered in this weekend’s update. I’ll start with the upside. I think the S&P 500 can reach 8,000 by the end of the year, and I’d even argue for 8,100. The downside could turn into an abyss. A drop to the bottom of the volatility box takes the S&P 500 under 7,400. A break of that box opens a straight shot below 7,000. I’m watching the bond market as the trigger. Notes dropped hard about 45 minutes after Friday’s open, and the S&P 500 slid right along with them. Apple recovered enough to steady the tape. That won’t hold forever. Nvidia isn’t bigger than rates, and nothing else

https://youtu.be/uyl6IPzTNFs The US dollar ran from 101 to 102.14 in a single session. Blake Young points out that a move that size can take a month or more. Blake reads it as foreign capital rushing into the US. He’s already mapping where that money lands next. The SPY whipsawed for more than three hours with single candles covering 25% to 50% of a full day’s range. It sat off just 0.1% when Blake recorded. Blake found the real move in bonds. The 10-year hit its lowest level in years, then reversed to test Monday’s high on volume running above 100% of average. Bonds and the dollar climbing together usually signal fresh capital arriving from overseas. Blake points to the euro sliding from 113.71 to 112.49 as more proof. The dollar index just cleared every resistance level back to early 2025. Blake calls it one of the largest single candle days

Gianni Di Poce sees the Nasdaq climbing to 32,000 or even 33,000. He calls that target conservative. This morning’s cooler than expected inflation report pushed stocks to new highs. The fade that followed doesn’t change his view. The data sharply cut the odds of a Fed rate hike at the October meeting. Gianni sees that shift driving the positive reaction. The Nasdaq outperformed on the session. Money rotated out of semiconductors and back into software. Gianni remains very bullish on software. Semiconductors make up 40% of the tech index. Software makes up only around 20%. Microsoft hit new highs today. Palantir, Nvidia, and Google all showed strength too. Gianni’s rule on price action is simple. A consolidation near the highs of a move is bullish. The Nasdaq set a record high just a week ago. It’s now carving out a wedge pattern near that level. A false breakout would have