Don Kaufman is options trader and educator. Former CBOE market maker, former Chief Derivatives Instructor at thinkorswim, and former Director of the Trader Group at TD Ameritrade. In 2015 he co-founded TheoTrade to teach traders how volatility, probability, and risk really work.

My 3 Bets Against A Powder Keg Market

Wednesday’s inflation report was nothing more than a fuse. The marketplace has been a pool of gasoline, a powder keg out there, and this CPI report lit it.  So when I went on Schwab’s Big 3, I brought three bearish trades. One is a retailer doing something the options market says it shouldn’t. Four weeks in a row, it has moved further than its options priced in. That’s a statistical anomaly, and I’m looking for a brief, violent pullback. One is a stock that retail traders have been squeezing higher by piling into calls.  I’ll admit this trade is standing in the way of a freight train. But that freight train looks like it’s coming to a stop. And one sits in every S&P 500 index fund, one of the biggest tech stocks in the world. This trade transcends the company. It’s a bet on what happens to the whole

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You Buy My BS, I’ll Buy Yours

Nvidia sells CoreWeave its chips, then rents back the leftovers. It’s right there in CoreWeave’s own filing. Under a $6.3 billion deal, “NVIDIA is obligated to purchase the residual unsold capacity through April 13, 2032.” And Nvidia owns a bunch of CoreWeave stock. What is CoreWeave? CoreWeave is a company that just buys Nvidia’s crap, shoves server farms together and prays to God that somebody leases it. If they don’t lease it, Nvidia buys up all the slack. It’s an amazingly stupid business model that relies exclusively on debt. Last quarter, CoreWeave paid $640 million in net interest and still lost $626 million. How Is This Any Different From The Telecom Bubble? I’m not trying to be facetious here. For those of you that have been around since the early 2000s, how does this differ from all the telecom BS that happened 20-something years ago? Global Crossing is out of

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Korea Is Crashing Again

South Korea’s stock market is crashing again. It crashed, technically recovered, and now it’s crashing again. Not enough people are focusing on this, and I don’t think it’s going to stop. If you don’t care about Korea, you should. Half of the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) is two chipmakers, SK Hynix and Samsung. When Korea sells off, the chip stocks you own here feel it. I knew before yesterday’s close that the SMH, the fund that tracks the big chip stocks, was going to take a hit. I didn’t know how much. So I put on a butterfly, an options trade that pays the most if the stock lands near one target price by expiration. I was looking for a 1.5% drop, and the SMH blew straight through 2.5%, all the way through my strikes. I got out for more than double my money. Why Chip Stocks Are

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Nobody Showed Up To Trade The Banks

Goldman Sachs was priced for a $36 move on earnings. Early this morning, it had moved six bucks. And Goldman’s numbers weren’t the problem, either. Equities revenue was up 72% from a year ago. The expected move is how far the options market is pricing a stock to travel by a certain date, in dollars. JPMorgan was priced for a $10 move and moved a dollar. Citi had a $5 expected move and moved two bucks. And Wells Fargo, do I even need to cover Wells? It was priced for $3.80 and barely moved a buck.  Not one of these was anywhere near its expected move. That in and of itself is an anomaly. Why Retail Traders Ignore The Biggest Banks In America JPMorgan reported earnings and traded only 40,000 option contracts around the open.  Nobody’s trading anything in here. Retail doesn’t even know what JPMorgan is. They don’t know

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Where Tech Money Rotates Next

https://youtu.be/0Q5njx5oxcE Microsoft and Palantir were all but written off earlier this year.  Since the start of the third quarter, they’ve been the two best performing mega cap tech names. Gianni Di Poce thinks Tesla could be next. It’s pretty much the only mega cap that hasn’t run in 2026. The S&P 500 is trading right where it was on Friday. Gianni sees the index digesting sideways near its all time highs while the money moves underneath. Semiconductors are taking a breather. Software caught the bid today as chips traded lower. Gianni isn’t bearish on semis. He calls them dead money in the near term and expects this correction through time to lead to another bullish outcome. He also flagged a warning sign. Utilities were the strongest sector last week, and Gianni reads those defensive flows as a rally starting to mature. He doesn’t think the market has topped. He does

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Where SPY’s $13 Box Breaks

https://youtu.be/bVSQrkKUU9M Brandon Chapman found a $13 box around SPY this week. Bank earnings land tomorrow morning. Brandon thinks those reports could turn that tight range into an accelerator. Today was Columbus Day. The S&P 500 usually finishes higher on this holiday, with most of the week’s gains coming on the day itself. This year broke the pattern. Brandon leaned into the seasonal tendency with the S&P 500 sitting in positive gamma territory. He took a long and looked for a close at the prior high. The trade didn’t work. A rally right before the close got a few traders near break even. The bond market was closed, and volume ran at 50% to 60% of normal. The S&P 500 still couldn’t finish higher on a light tape built for an upward bias. Tomorrow kicks off earnings season. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup all report. Brandon also spotted a

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Wall Street Upgraded This Stock After It Already Bounced

Bank of America double-upgraded Salesforce this morning. It went all the way from Underperform to Buy, and the headline in Barron’s says the AI overhang is over.  Salesforce (CRM) sells customer relationship management software, the program companies use to keep track of their customers and sales. I want to ask one question. Where was that upgrade when the stock was down 40%? The Upgrade That Showed Up After The Stock Recovered Nobody upgraded Salesforce at the bottom. Wall Street waited for the stock to recover until it was only down 13%, and then the upgrade showed up. This is beyond Monday morning quarterback. I am so sick of the entire industry doing this. To me, at this point, that’s a great sell. Why TheoTrade Could Build Its Own Version Over A Long Weekend I’m saying this from a development point of view. Here at TheoTrade, we have to use database

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60% Of The S&P 500 Is Already In A Bear Market

84% of the S&P 500 has already corrected 10% or more. It gets worse. 59% of the S&P 500 is in bear market territory, down 20% or more. Listen to me, almost 60% of the index is in a bear market, and the index itself is sitting near an all-time high. So who’s holding it up?  A handful of stocks, maybe seven to 10 of them, are holding the entire thing together. They’re big enough to do it, and they’ll keep doing it as long as they stay up. How Many Walmarts Fit Inside One Nvidia Everybody agrees Walmart is a big company. Call it a $900 billion company. How many Walmarts would fit into the market value of one Nvidia? About six, and that’s a stupid number. So the market can rotate all it wants into the stocks that got left behind. You would need six other companies the

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The Rotation Out of Semiconductors And Into…

https://youtu.be/pn5620t4Yuk The S&P 500 just closed the week at an all time high. Tech had almost nothing to do with it. The semiconductors took a hit all week long. The money carrying the index went into sectors nobody has wanted to touch since the summer. That’s a sharp break from the last few weeks. The Nasdaq led the S&P 500 back to record highs with a straight shot higher of about 10%. This week the Nasdaq finished basically unchanged. The semis did worse. Meanwhile the market bought everything that was oversold. Financials, consumer staples, and utilities all ripped off their lows. The SPX still came within 8 points of the upper edge of its expected move. That’s 8 points on a $7,800 product. I don’t think one week of weakness means the great Nasdaq fade is underway. Next week will decide it. Here’s what I broke down in tonight’s video:

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The $75,000 Insurance Bill I Refused To PayPreview:

My multimillion-dollar house in the islands had no hurricane insurance. People think that’s absolutely crazy. I had liability insurance, in case somebody fell off the roof, and it could have been me, because I’m the idiot up there fixing the Starlink every other day. What I didn’t have was hurricane coverage. The quote was $75,000 a year with a $20,000 deductible, the amount you pay yourself before the insurance kicks in. So basically I had to be $100,000 a year in. I didn’t pay $100,000 to protect myself from a stupid hurricane. The Hurricane Window Where You Don’t Want To Be The Donkey Hurricane season runs from June through November. Down on the island, there’s a three-week window in September where you’re basically playing pin the tail on the donkey, and you don’t want to be the donkey. Locals told me storms have hit as late as November. So I

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Don Kaufman Don Kaufman

TheoTrade co-founder, former CBOE market maker and thinkorswim Chief Derivatives Instructor.

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