https://youtu.be/t51fSF9Tw2Y Gianni Di Poce flagged the quietest setup on the board. The Nasdaq trades at the same price it held four months ago. Four months of movement produced nothing. The Bollinger Bands have squeezed tighter than they were at the March bottom. That earlier base ran six months before the index finally broke out. Gianni learned it as the bigger the base, the higher the space. He expects the resolution to be meaningful in either direction. His bias points higher because the longer term trend never broke. The Nasdaq has not printed a lower low. Gianni argues today’s dip carved out another higher low instead. Today’s tape handed him more evidence. Explosions tied to Iran hit the wires. Stocks barely flinched. The S&P 500 fell less than half a percent. The Dow dropped over 1%. The Nasdaq stayed green. Semiconductors climbed 1.5% on the session. AMD ran 6%. Money took

https://youtu.be/Uxkn8JKBXWM The VIX is lying dead on the floor. Skew just shot up to one of the highest readings it has posted. Somebody is buying protection that nobody else thinks they need. Those back month options far out of the money are juicy right now. I traded into a Christmas tree spread today because the skew got that rich. Three weeks ago skew was horrendously low. It reversed hard as of yesterday. We don’t know yet what that hedging means. We will know a lot more by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Now look at the tape underneath it. The S&P 500 has gone nowhere since early May, chopping between 7,350 and 7,700 for four and a half months. Every session turns into a game of Whac-A-Mole. Semiconductors pop and healthcare fades. Healthcare screams higher and the semis roll right back over. That rotation keeps the index pinned near

Blake Young found a correlation that has held for 20 years. It broke this week. The Australian dollar and Japanese yen trade in step with the S&P 500. Blake ran that relationship back two decades. It turned non positive in roughly 3% of those weeks. That’s about 20 weeks out of 20 years. Blake calls the pair his greed and fear gauge. Growth money lifts the Aussie. Uncertainty lifts the yen. Right now traders are selling the Aussie. They’re covering yen shorts at the same time. Equities keep pushing higher anyway. That split is the warning. Volume backs up his caution. The 10 day average on the S&P 500 sits at 33 million shares. The same week last year averaged over 64 million. Liquidity has been cut nearly in half. Blake won’t trust any directional move until volume comes back after Labor Day. He wants 50 to 60 million shares

https://youtu.be/hwnRyu3cCGc The 10 year yield cracked 4.8% today. I think it cycles right up to 5% and pierces through it. That move sets up the trade I have been waiting on. When treasuries crack, I am selling naked puts on the ZB. No spreads. I will buy the bonds wherever I get put at 105, 106, or 107. The reason I am willing to take assignment is simple. If treasuries slide hard, I expect the treasury to step in and backstop that market. I am waiting for my wave. When the ZB cracks into 107 territory, I start executing. Now understand what today actually gave you. Almost nothing. The S&P 500 finished up 36 points on roughly 1.2 million contracts. Options order flow was so thin it kept me out of trades I wanted in the SPDRs and even XSP. The advance decline line sat at 60/40 the entire session.