They Shot The Mother Bullet Way Too Early

The Treasury fired its biggest bullet this morning. At 5:30 in the morning they announced a dramatic expansion of buybacks at the long end of the curve. A huge amount of liquidity aimed straight at the 30-year. Call it what you want, quantitative easing or easing light or modern monetary theory. I’m calling it yield curve control, and I expected it early next year, not in the middle of August. The bond market did an entire session’s volume in about an hour, with notes trading 1.1 million contracts. The dollar tanked and gold went bid. Here’s my problem with it. They shot the mother bullet way too early. Fire that one off and you don’t have another one sitting there. The Fed has tools. All the Treasury has left is rhetoric. So if the bond market starts to slip again next week, what exactly do they do about it? The

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Energy Is Holding Stocks Hostage

Stocks were higher. Gianni Di Poce pinned this pullback on a single sector. Energy was the top performing sector last week. That one fact puts the bullish case on hold. Tech and energy now sit neck and neck for the best performing sector of the year. Gianni treats that race as the real scoreboard. When tech pulls ahead, the tape turns bullish. When energy pulls ahead, the tape turns bearish. Every time crude oil finds strength, tension builds underneath stocks. We watched it happen again today. The S&P 500 fell about 47 points. The index hovered near the lows of the day. The Nasdaq absorbed the brunt of the selling. The Dow barely budged. Gianni still calls this a fantastic dip buying opportunity. He sees the market one domino away from bulls reasserting momentum. That domino is energy. Crude has to pull back. The futures curve supports him. Oil sits

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80 Stocks Were Up And The Market Was Down 40

Eighty stocks were higher this morning and the S&P was down 40 handles. Let that sit for a second, because it’s the most dangerous setup on the board and it always gets dismissed by the mainstream.  The advance decline line was stellar. Financials were higher and so was energy. Utilities up a percent, staples up a percent, healthcare up almost two, Apple higher, Microsoft higher, Google flat. And the index kept sliding. One sector was doing all of it. The semiconductors got taken apart, Micron off 7%, Intel off 7%, and that single group dragged the whole thing red while three quarters of the market went up. That’s dangerous, and most people read it as reassuring. You’re correlating to the upside with the market going down. Everything is balanced on the edge, and something like that can snap and flip over in a second. When one group is doing all

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You Don’t Put A Stop On A Spread

Somebody in the room told me they got stopped out of a spread. I want to talk about that for a minute, because it drives me absolutely nuts. Did anybody ever ask you to put a stop order on a defined risk trade? A spread has your risk written into it already. You paid what you paid, and that’s the most the market can take from you. So you don’t have to further define your risk on an already risk-defined trade, do you?  I’m just asking… People that put stop orders on spreads, there is something wrong with you. I don’t care whether you bought it or you sold it. And if you don’t like the risk, I’ve got better news for you. Don’t do the damn trade. Does that sound reasonable? Does it? Here’s what happens when you stop out of a spread. You take the loss at the

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The Bulls Missed This 195% Trade

Brandon Chapman booked a 195% gain today on a zero DTE spread. He knew which way the market would break before it opened. The recent tape looked bullish. Anyone reading price action alone leaned long this morning. Brandon read the gamma exposure map instead. That data pointed down. Here is how the setup built. A significant level at 750 broke and carried price to 760. The break of 760 punched through major walls and created dealer convexity. Volatility rose with price, which forced dealers to hedge by buying stock and futures. Then price slammed into the wall at 775 and 780. Brandon had those lines drawn last week. Price glided along 775 for three straight days. Once it finally cleared, 780 arrived in a single session. Friday the structure shifted. The gamma exposure flipped and the cushion under the market thinned out. This morning price sat below 776 in a

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Not 50%. Not 53%. 55% At Minimum.

Not 50%, not 53%, 55% at minimum. That’s the number I want out of a spread trade, and I want to spend a minute on it because most people never set one at all. The clock starts the day you put it on. You have three days to make 30%, and if you get it, take it and go. Miss that window and the target moves. Now you are shooting for 55%, and it has to be 55%. That number comes out of the occurrences and being right. I have more track record on these than any other trade at TheoTrade, and after hundreds of them we are right 72% of the time. The trade is not about being right or wrong, though. It is about the probability first, then the profitability. I have a Microsoft spread on that I paid $2.20 for back on August 7th. Take $2.20, multiply

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Google Turned $900 Million Into $94 Billion

Google turned $900 million into $94 billion. That’s the SpaceX stake Alphabet disclosed last week, 551 million shares, about 4.2% of the company, off a check they wrote in 2015. More than a hundredfold in ten years. Nvidia showed up with $21 billion, its second largest disclosed equity position after Intel. That one came in sideways, out of a $10 billion investment in xAI that turned into SpaceX shares when Musk folded xAI into the rocket company. AMD is on the cap table too. So is Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the Saudi PIF, Fidelity, and the University of California. And Harvard. Harvard Management’s single largest stock holding is SpaceX, at $2.2 billion, which works out to 52% of their entire disclosed US equity portfolio. TSMC is second at about a sixth the size. Who would have thought Google is buying SpaceX? Isn’t that kind of like one of your competitors?

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Puts Are Dirt Cheap

https://youtu.be/dc6pW8OSZGE Volatility skew has gone flat in the SPDRs. Calls and puts are trading for nearly the same money right now. I built a tool to track this in real time. What it showed me today has almost no historical precedent. Nine days out in SPY, there is no skew left at all. Ten delta calls and ten delta puts carry virtually identical implied volatility. Thirty days out, the gap narrows to six implied volatility points. Go thirty six days out and near money options sit at 13.4 against 12.4. One point of separation. Markets never carry equal risk in both directions, yet that is exactly how this tape is pricing them. AMD pushes it past absurd. The thirty day skew is inverted at 104, meaning the calls cost more than the puts. Push it out to 90 days. Push it to 120. The calls still cost more than the

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Uranium Pays You To Wait

Blake Young spent today’s session on the one corner of the market where utilities and energy overlap. He calls it nuclear and uranium. The demand math is not subtle. Nuclear demand in the United States is expected to run 50% to 100% higher over the next 10 to 15 years. Uranium demand climbs right alongside it. Blake puts that increase at 30% on the low end and 80% on the high end. Here is the part that changes how you position. Blake is not buying these names outright at today’s prices. He sells puts and gets paid while he waits for the pullback. Cameco already broke through accumulation on the zero line. Blake wants a retest near 94 before he commits, and he maps upside through 120, 130, and 150. The cleaner vehicle sits in the ETF. URA trades near 45 and carries a 9% annualized dividend for anyone who

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Software Just Beat The Chips

Gianni Di Poce caught the handoff last week. Software outperformed semiconductors. Chips beat tech. Tech beat the S&P 500. Software beat all of it. That order matters more than the headline highs. Semiconductors carried the second quarter by themselves. The S&P 500 and the Dow ripped to fresh all-time highs last week. Stocks eased back Monday and again today. The Nasdaq has not joined the all-time high party yet. It still outperformed both the S&P 500 and the Dow on a percentage basis. Gianni calls that a risk on signal. Look at the math underneath the tape. Technology makes up around 34% of the S&P 500. Ten or eleven stocks account for over 40% of the index. Inside the tech sector, semiconductors are roughly 40% of the weight. Software is roughly 20%. Gianni wants semiconductors to do nothing into year end. That is his best case scenario. Software takes leadership

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