They Shot The Mother Bullet Way Too Early
The Treasury fired its biggest bullet this morning. At 5:30 in the morning they announced a dramatic expansion of buybacks at the long end of the curve. A huge amount of liquidity aimed straight at the 30-year. Call it what you want, quantitative easing or easing light or modern monetary theory. I’m calling it yield curve control, and I expected it early next year, not in the middle of August. The bond market did an entire session’s volume in about an hour, with notes trading 1.1 million contracts. The dollar tanked and gold went bid. Here’s my problem with it. They shot the mother bullet way too early. Fire that one off and you don’t have another one sitting there. The Fed has tools. All the Treasury has left is rhetoric. So if the bond market starts to slip again next week, what exactly do they do about it? The