Risk Adjusted Returns In The 99th Percentile

S&P 500 Rebounds The stock market recovered after a morning selloff related to the coronavirus. From the low on the day, to the close, the S&P 500 rose 0.63%. WHO stated, it’s a “bit too early to consider this event as a public health emergency of international concern.”  So far, there have been 600 confirmed…

Lowest Existing Housing Inventory On Record

Redbook Same Store Sales Growth Improves Preliminary January consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan was basically unchanged. As you can see from the chart below, the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index is at a 19 year high as it has increased with the stock market. Correlation with the S&P 500 is quite high. Low…

Utilities & Tesla Are In The Stratosphere

Rally Since The Top Investing is all about perspective. If you look at how stocks have done since Christmas Eve 2018, this looks like an unsustainable bubble. If you look at how stocks have done since the peak on September 2018, the returns are much more normal.  S&P 500 is up 13.8% since September 20th which…

Regional Fed Reports Suggest Lower Stock Market Returns Are Coming

Manufacturing Improvement Coming? The equity market is very confident a cyclical recovery is coming. When poor economic data from Q4 comes out, it is discounted because investors are focused on 2020 which is expected to be the year where earnings growth recovers and the manufacturing sector rights itself. When the manufacturing sector actually does right…

Netflix Starts Off FANG Earnings

Slight Decline, But Stocks Still Overbought S&P 500 fell 0.27% on Tuesday, but let's discuss how overbought the market is. One modest decline doesn’t end that state. We need to see a decline of at least 5% for this market to become more normal. As I have said many times, this isn’t a bubble. For…

Hiring Increases & Consumers Stay Confident

Hiring Increases In November JOLTS In October, openings increased and hirings plummeted; in November it was the reverse. Headlines say this was a bad report, but I say it was ok. You can see the long term historical trends in hires, quits, openings, and layoffs & discharges in the chart below. Hires seem to be…

2020 Is The Year Of Extreme Greed

Euphoria Keeps Going With the great housing starts and mediocre industrial production reports out, stocks rallied on Friday like they seem to do almost every day. This rally has been very impressive. As of Thursday, the 14 day RSI was at 74.59. Usually, when it’s over 70, it means stocks are ready for a correction.…

Warm December Weather Hurts Utilities & Helps Housing

December Was Hot It’s very important to understand that December was a relatively hot month because it impacts December’s economic data. Specifically, utilities production fell because of hot weather and housing boomed. It was particularly hotter than average in the South which is the nation’s largest housing market. The map below shows the average temperature…

OK December Retail Sales: 2.2% Q4 GDP Growth Incoming

Weak PPI Report Signals No Rate Cuts Just like headline CPI, headline PPI was up because of energy prices. It increased from 1.1% to 1.3% which met estimates. Commodities inflation has been low in the past few years as most inflation has been coming from wages. PPI excluding energy and food fell from 1.3% to…

The Rally That Never Ends

Stocks Increase On Earnings & Economic Data Stocks increased yet again on Thursday as this has been a great start to 2020 for the market. There were some earnings reports and a few economic reports that must have pleased investors. The retail sales report wasn’t bad or great. Maybe that’s enough to satisfy investors. The…

Page 1 of 147