Is The Trade Deal Back On?

Stocks Recover Some Of Their Recent Losses: Trade Deal Back On? In a repeat of Monday’s manufacturing PMI data, the Markit services PMI improved and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI fell. Motor vehicle sales report rose after a weak October reading. ADP report was weak which only matters if it correctly signals weakness in the BLS…

Solid Cyber Monday & Markit Manufacturing Data

Strong Cyber Monday Redbook same store sales growth was 7.9% in the week of November 30th which was up from 4.3% and the highest reading since early January. You’d think that growth spike was because of Black Friday being a week later, but last week had 4.3% growth, meaning there wasn’t a decline in growth because…

Stocks Fall As Reports Show No Trade Deal In 2019

3 Day Losing Streak For Stocks Finally, the correction many had been predicting is starting; stocks declined. Namely, stocks fell on Tuesday because of worries about trade. It doesn’t look like there will be a trade deal by the December 15th soft deadline.  S&P 500 fell 0.66% which brings the 3 day losses to 1.92%. I…

Weak Manufacturing ISM PMI Sends Down Q4 GDP Growth Nowcast

Quick Q3 GDP Review: No Negative Growth A big story in the past few weeks has been that 2H 2019 GDP growth isn’t as bad as was feared in October. Real final sales growth should still be mediocre, but headline GDP growth isn’t close to going negative. You don’t need to see negative GDP growth…

Stocks Fall On Weak ISM Manufacturing PMI, Despite Strong Black Friday

Stocks Start December With A Bust? The stock market fell on Monday which isn’t a surprise because it was very overbought heading into the week. S&P 500’s 0.86% decline was its worst decline to start a December since 2008. That’s “nice to know”, but not a stat you can make trades based on.  Stocks rallied…

Consumer Confidence Falls Right Before Holiday Shopping Season

House Price Growth Might Be Bottoming In the MBA report from the week of November 22nd, the seasonally adjusted purchase applications index was down 1% on a weekly basis after it increased 7%. On a yearly basis, it was up 55% because last year, this week included Thanksgiving and this time it didn’t. It’s not…

73% Chance Stocks Drop In The Next Week

Extreme Euphoria Is Back With the rally in stocks on Wednesday, investors have once again become extremely bearish in the short term. Stocks are even more overbought than they were before that 3 day decline in late November. As of Tuesday, the 14 day RSI was at 74.4. With the rally on Wednesday, I’m guessing…

Atlanta Fed Sees 1.7% Q4 GDP Growth (New Home Sales Were Strong)

GDP Nowcast Revised Much Higher Q4 GDP growth has changed dramatically partially because of the recent advanced indicators reports. We have good news on trade, housing, and inventories which means GDP growth is on pace to be closer to 2% rather than below 1%. This was reflected in the Wednesday update of the Atlanta Fed…

Overbought Market Cranks out Another Record High

Another Record High: Santa Clause Euphoria The stock market rose again on Tuesday as the S&P 500 is now up 25.28% year to date, making this the best year since 2013. CNN fear and greed index fell 1 point to 69 which is greed. But don’t let that make you think stocks aren’t overbought. VIX…

Q4 GDP Growth Expectations Will Rise

Kansas City Fed Index Stays Slightly Negative November Kansas City Fed manufacturing index which came out last Friday was at -3 which is the same as the previous month. The chart below includes all the regional Fed indexes. As you can see, with 5 indexes included, the regional Fed data implies the ISM PMI will…

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