Beige Book States US Economy Grew At “Slight To Modest Pace”

Stocks Fall Slightly Despite Bad News It's surprising how well stocks held up on Wednesday. Especially considering the fact that the retail sales report missed estimates. And the Chicago Fed President called for no more rate cuts this year and next year, just like the FOMC. It’s interesting because whenever any bad news comes out…

September Retail Sales Growth Misses Estimates

Potential Winners & Losers Of Dem Debate The Democratic debate on Tuesday was 3 hours long and included 12 candidates. It was probably a bit too many candidates to have on one stage. Given the slightly higher standards to make the next debate, I’m expecting there to be 2-4 fewer on November 20th.  So far,…

Earnings Help Get The S&P 500 Near 3,000 Again

Stocks Rally On Earnings Bank stocks helped lift the overall market higher because of the steepening yield curve and their good earnings reports. I’ll review the earnings reports later in this article. S&P 500 was up 1% to 2,996. It is back near its favorite spot which is 3,000. It hugged 3,000 for much of…

Redbook Same Store Sales Growth The Worst Since July 2018

Slight Improvement In Empire Fed Index October Empire Fed manufacturing index was just like the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in that it was expected to fall, but it rose. Empire Fed index was different because on an absolute basis it was weaker. Specifically, expectations were for it to fall from 2 to 0.8…

Phase 1 Trade Deal Isn’t A Deal: Buy The Rumor Sell The News

Stocks Rise On Phase 1 Deal The stock market has had many rallies and dips in the past few weeks on trade news and rumors. It was apropos that there were 2 more twists on the day of the meeting with the Vice Premier. As you can see from the chart below, positive trade rumors…

Consumers Most Optimistic On Real Income Growth In 2 Decades

University Of Michigan Consumer Confidence Improves The University of Michigan consumer confidence index improved again in October. That’s 2 months of improvements assuming the preliminary reading is near the final reading. These increases came after the sharp decline in August because of the trade war. That weak reading was correlated with real personal consumption growth,…

Lowest Percentage Of Bears Since Mid-2016

Stocks Rise After President Trump’s Positive Tweet Many think stocks will rise on almost anything even if it’s mildly positive because sentiment is so bad. That situation occurred on Thursday. S&P 500 increased 0.64% after President Trump’s positive tweet on trade. There’s no proof of any agreement. We’ll need to wait until Friday for that.…

Strong Jobless Claims & Slight Decline In Inflation

Jobless Claims DO NOT Signal A Recession Jobless claims are the thorn in the side of the bears. We keep hearing from the bears about how jobless claims will spike, but it never happens (on a sustainable basis). Let's discuss 2 important misnomers heard from the bears. First is the bears say initial claims are…

Stocks Rise On Trade Hopes That Might Be Dashed

Stocks Rise On Trade Hopes? Stocks rose on Wednesday because of hopes for a trade deal. There was a report that China would accept a partial deal. This is the type of report many don’t buy. Mostly because the actions from both sides speak louder than these so-called reports. Both sides want to appear willing…

Fed Minutes Imply That Fed Is At Market’s Will

Neutral September Fed Minutes September Fed Minutes weren’t that dovish. Especially considering the Fed cut rates at that meeting. And the Fed funds futures market is pricing in another cut in October. Despite the mixed signals given from the Minutes, stocks rallied. Fed expressed worries about the market getting ahead of itself. Ironically, the market…

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