Government Shutdown More Likely Than Ever

Government Shutdown Looms On Thursday, the chances of a government shutdown increased, so stocks sold off again. This has always been a confusing issue for me because I think the government will shutdown, but I also think stocks shouldn’t selloff because of it. The conclusion that thought process brings me to is that the shutdown…

Apple Invests $250 Billion In America

Extreme Bullishness Stocks hit a record high on Wednesday as the S&P 500 was up 0.94% and the VIX recoiled from its gains on Tuesday falling to 11.54. There hasn’t been much of an effect from the crash in cryptocurrencies as I expected. If stocks continue on this unprecedented streak, I could see the Fed doing a…

Government Shutdown Odds At 25%

E-Trade Survey Shows Retail Investors Are Optimistic Stocks rallied on Wednesday as good earnings reports helped the market regain momentum after Tuesday’s reversal. That means we can continue our discussion on how overly optimistic some investors have become. The table below shows an E-Trade of survey of retail investors. Some of the responses are remarkable. 9% of…

Government Shutdown Causes VIX Spike As Traders Take Profits In Stocks

Wild Tuesday In Stocks & Crypto Cryptocurrencies had a disastrous crash on Tuesday as most were down over 20% and some were down over 40%. The total market capitalization peaked at $830 billion two weeks ago. The latest check is $496 billion which is an over 40% decline. This is great news for the economy…

2018 Earnings Estimates Improve The Most Since 1996

Earnings Estimates Improve The Most In At Least 21 Years If you’re bullish on stocks because earnings are strong, you are sitting in the catbird’s seat because the estimates have been expanding at an unusual pace. As you can see from the chart below, the 2018 full year estimate has increased since December when the…

Stocks Maintain Euphoria

Fed Fund Futures’ Reaction To CPI The Fed fund futures for the March meeting show the chance of at least one rate hike went up from 68% before the data released to 73.7% after the data was released. Even though this is a small change, getting above the 70% threshold is pivotal because the Fed…

Core Inflation Starts To Accelerate

CPI Beats Estimates Core CPI beat expectations as it was up 1.8% year over year. The estimates were for 1.7% growth which was what last month showed. This was the strongest gain in 11 months. The month over month increase was 0.3% which beat estimates for 0.2% growth. The headline CPI which includes food and energy…

Stocks Are Extremely Overbought

Optimism Is Hyperbolic Stocks rallied again Thursday as the S&P 500 was up 0.7% and the Russell 2000 was up 1.72%. The S&P 500 is now up 3.45% year to date. That’s an amazing month of returns and we’re only almost halfway through January. The CNN fear and greed index is at 77/100 which is…

Room To Run In Public & Private Non-Residential Spending

Yield Curve Expected To Flatten The latest difference between the 10 year bond yield and the 2 year bond yield is 58.44 basis points. That’s about 8 basis points of steepening from the bottom on January 4th. The CME website shows the next likely rate hike will be in March as there’s a 1.5% chance…

The Dow Is The Most Overbought Since 1904

End Of The Streak- Stocks Still Overbought The stock market finally ended its remarkable run to start the year, but stocks are still euphoric. This 0.11% selloff in the S&P 500 only ends the streak; it doesn’t make stocks less overbought. As you can see from the chart below, the 14 day RSI on the…

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