Apple To Launch News & Streaming Service March 25th

Apple - S&P 500 Breaks Out Of Range Before getting into Apple, let's review the market. S&P 500 increased 14 points to 2,822.48 on Friday. That is higher than the previous 4 attempts at hitting the September record high. The market has broken through that resistance and is now focused on the record high. S&P…

Leading Index Perks Up Signaling Slowdown End Is Near

Leading Index - Weekly Index’ Growth Rate Improves Substantially Before I review the latest economic reports, let’s look at the big jump in the ECRI leading index’s growth rate. It is one of the most important factors in my analysis of the economy.  As you can see from the chart below, the yearly growth rate…

Global Semiconductor Sales Signal A Recession In 6 Months

Global Semiconductor Sales - Slight Decline Ends 3 Day Winning Streak The stock market fell slightly, ending its 3 day winning streak. S&P 500 fell 9 basis points, Nasdaq fell 0.16%, and Russell 2000 fell 0.4%. This slight decline maintains the narrative that the S&P 500 can’t get above this ceiling which is a little bit…

Inflation Won’t Cause The Fed To Hike Rates

Inflation Estimates Fall Inflation estimates for 2019 were much higher 6 months ago than they are now. Economists see the writing on the wall. Inflation won’t be a problem in 2019, and the Fed definitely won’t raise rates. Economists didn’t see the slowdown coming and they thought rising nominal wage growth would generate inflation.  Phillips…

S&P500 Range In The 2,800 For The 5th Time In 6 Months

S&P500 Range - Back Again So Soon? S&P 500 was up 0.69% on Wednesday as it now is on a 3 day winning streak after coming off a 5 day losing streak. In those 3 days, the S&P 500 has gotten back all the losses from last week and more. The S&P 500 is now at…

Utilities More Than Double S&P 500 Returns Since February 1st

Utilities - Economic Review Economic growth should be strong in 2019 based on the strength of the consumer as real wage growth is at a cyclical high. GDP growth might not be great in Q1.  Even though wage growth has been strong, there was a scare from the government shutdown which curtailed spending. If the…

Small Business Optimism Rebounds Slightly

Small Business Optimism - Another Rally Tuesday The stock market has almost recovered all the losses from the minor correction last week. On Tuesday, S&P 500 increased 0.3%, Nasdaq increased 0.44%, and Russell 2000 was up 6 basis points. Just like what happened 3 times last fall, the S&P 500 has had trouble around the…

Core CPI Inflation Falls Modestly, Supporting Fed Pause

Core CPI Inflation - Redbook Same Store Sales Improve Slightly Core CPI Inflation - Redbook same store sales growth was much quicker than retail sales growth in December and January. Investors are interested in seeing if this relationship continues. This would imply retail sales growth being weaker in February since Redbook sales growth fell. I…

Retail Sales Improve In January

Retail Sales Improve - Stocks Rebound On Monday It’s not a surprise stocks rebounded sharply on Monday because they had fallen 5 days in a row. Stocks are constantly reacting to previous overreactions. Dow even rallied 0.79% despite Boeing’s 5.33% decline. This occurred because its 737 MAX 8 plane crashed in Ethiopia killing 157 people. …

Aggregate Income Growth Falls Sharply

Aggregate Income Growth Falls Just because the February labor report could be a blip doesn’t mean we shouldn’t review it. To be fair, the January labor report was also a blip since it’s highly unlikely job creation averages above 250,000 in 2019 let alone the 311,000 jobs created in January.  The February report doesn’t signal…

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