50 Basis Points - Will the Fed Cut Rates Soon?

50 Basis Points - Another Rally: 2019 Has Been Fantastic Will the Fed make the move to 50 Basis Points Rate Cuts soon? Large cap stocks rallied again on Thursday. S&P 500 was up 0.23% which puts its July gains at 1.98% and its year to date gains at 19.67%. VIX fell 0.77% to 12.93.…

June Core CPI Beats Estimates

June Core CPI - Jobless Claims Fall Sharply Before getting into June Core CPI let's review the apparent uncertainty. It appears uncertainty is hurting the economy more than weak demand. We will see how far uncertainty can take us. But I don’t see it leading to a recession. If a recession was about to be…

S&P 500 Record High - Hits 3,000 For The First Time On Dovish Fed

S&P 500 Record High - New Record High For Stocks As Fed Turns Dovish Another record this week as the S&P 500 Record High turned heads. Interestingly, the market didn’t fall much when the odds for a 50 basis point cut fell from approximately 30% to very close to zero. Now the odds are back…

Powell Testimony & Fed Minutes Signal July Rate Cut

Powell Testimony - Dovish Press Conference Powell Testimony during the Fed minutes were highly Dovish in tone. Wednesday was a big day for the Fed. Powell testified before the House Financial Services Committee. Also, they released the June Minutes. Let’s start by looking at the testimony. It was completely wrong to say the market was…

Stocks Await Fed Minutes Which Could Invert the Yield Curve

Stocks Await Fed Minutes - Mostly Flat Ahead Of Fed Minutes Stocks Await Fed Minutes and stay flat with anticipation. They have declined slightly from their record high. Mostly because they were overbought. And also because investors questioned how dovish the Fed would be after the solid jobs report. If I was a Fed member…

Small Businesses Become Increasingly Uncertain

Small Businesses - Consumer Credit Increases Small Businesses are starting to become uncertain as consumer credit increases. The consumer has deleveraged this cycle. So it's not bad thing if the consumer takes out more revolving credit. Even though its savings rate is low. As you can see from the chart below, consumer credit growth was…

Apple Drives Frothy Market Lower

Apple Drives Market Lower On Monday Apple Drives the Dow, the Nasdaq, and the S&P 500 lower. But the Russell 2000 also fell, so that’s not the whole story. First let’s look at Apple. Apple stock fell 2.06% on Monday after an analyst from Rosenblatt stated the iPhone XS may end up being "one of…

June Labor Report Beats The Highest Estimates

June Labor Report - Job Creation Beats Estimates Interestingly, the June Labor Report actually be the highest estimates. Unlike many expected, the May labor report was revised to show 72,000 jobs created instead of 75,000 jobs created. April reading was revised down by 8,000. However, the June report showed 224,000 jobs created which beat estimates…

Stocks Decline After June Jobs Report Beats Estimates

Stocks Decline - Fall On Solid BLS Report Stocks Decline even though the BLS report was strong. Friday’s action was very interesting because the BLS report beat estimates. But stocks fell because the odds of a rate cuts fell. The market had been back to hoping the Fed would save it. I actually think the…

Weakest ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Since July 2017

Weakest ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI - Weak Factory Orders May ended up having the Weakest ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in nearly two years. May factory orders fell 0.7% monthly which missed estimates for a 0.5% decline. That’s pretty bad. Especially when you consider that the April reading was revised to show a 1.2% monthly decline instead of…

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