Equities Rally Is Global

Market Stays Overbought Wednesday was the reverse of Tuesday. On Tuesday the S&P 500 was the only major index that fell. And on Wednesday it was the only one to increase. S&P 500 was up 7 basis points on Wednesday. VIX fell 0.48 to 12.62 which signals high complacency. Stocks are up modestly since investors…

Strong Hiring & ISM PMI Improves

Weak Openings & Strong Hiring The JOLTS report gives us data on hiring, quits, and openings. Two of the three data points were solid. Openings growth was negative because the reading spiked way too high in 2018. A spike made no sense as the difference between openings and hiring hit a record high.  As you…

America Revoke $112 Billion In Chinese Tariffs?

Flat Market, But Still Overbought The stock market was mostly flat on Tuesday, but stocks are still overbought. It’s common knowledge that earnings season, which is mostly over, was pretty good, that the trade deal is inching closer to completion, and that the Fed is supportive of markets. That’s why the base case scenario being…

New Business Falls For The First Time In 10 Years

Weak October Motor Vehicle Sales October motor vehicles report was disappointing. Motor vehicle sales have plateaued in the past few years as you can see from the chart below. This October weakness isn’t the sign of a new downtrend. But it does mean retail sales growth will be hurt by the motor vehicles and parts…

Market Hits Extreme Greed (Dow, Nasdaq, & S&P 500 All At Record Highs)

Stocks Extremely Overbought The stock market again rallied significantly on Monday. Any increase is significant with the market at a record high and the S&P 500 up over 20% year to date (it’s up 22.79%). This has been a very strong run in the past few weeks. Since October 8th, the S&P 500 is up…

Highest Labor Force Participation Rate Since August 2013

Very Strong Jobs Report Because Of Positive Revisions Let’s look at it the October labor report. This employment report was very strong. It explains why stocks rallied sharply on Friday. And it fully explains why the CNN fear and greed index hit 80 on Friday. There were fears that this jobs report would end the…

MSCI ACWI 1 Point Away From Record As S&P 500 & Nasdaq Hit Record Highs

Hugely Positive Day For Stocks Friday’s action really stuck it to the bears and made them feel terrible. S&P 500 hit a new record high as it increased 0.97%. Stocks have had an amazing year and even the returns since the peak in January 2018 aren’t looking bad.  S&P 500 up 6.75% from that peak.…

Manufacturing PMIs Improve In October

Job Cuts Increase (YTD Total Highest Since 2015) Job cut reports have been quite sold in recent months versus the start of the year. October reading wasn’t great, but also wasn’t as bad as earlier in the year. This report was basically more of the same. Job cuts are modestly elevated, but not worrisome.  In…

Starbucks, Facebook, And Apple All Rally On Earnings

Stocks Decline Slightly On Thursday Stocks probably fell on Thursday because they were overbought. S&P 500 to fall 0.3%. Besides being overbought, the negative headline that hurt stocks was the Bloomberg report. It stated that China is doubtful there will be a long term trade deal.  President Trump tried to calm the situation by tweeting,…

Low Inflation Supports Recent Rate Cuts

Very Weak Chicago PMI Bears are having a field day with the Chicago PMI report because the PMI fell from 47.1 to 43.2. That missed estimates for 48.3 and the low end of the consensus range which is 47.6. A big negative stat being put out is that 8 of 9 times the PMI was…

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