Faulty Indicators Which Should Be Ignored
Delinquencies Versus Jobless Claims The charts below are interesting, but I think they ultimately provide a falsely negative result. I’ve never seen the delinquency rates being compared to the initial jobless claims, so I think it’s worth taking a look at this. The problem with this calculation is that the jobless claims have been extremely…
Stocks Fall On Renewed China Trade Jitters
President Trump Still Negotiating With China There is certainly communications inconsistency from the White House on the China trade talks. Mnuchin stated there had been meaningful progress with the negotiations and the plans just needed to be implemented. In an impromptu media Q&A with the President who was at a meeting with the President of…
Dodd Frank Amended
Leading Indicators The economic data is important to my thesis which states you should be buying stocks at these prices. It may not seem like the economy moves stocks, but fundamental investors might not react within the minute a report is released like the algorithms do after a geopolitical event occurs. The chart below shows…
Monetary Policy Sweet Spot For Stocks
Market Hitting New Highs In the past few quarters, hitting new highs meant new all-time highs, but now it just means the highest prices since March. The S&P 500 was up 0.74% which means it is at the highest price since March 15th. The S&P 500 is now up 2.22% year to date. The next…
24.5% Earnings Growth Is Bullish For Stocks
93% Of Firms Have Reported Q1 Results According to FactSet, 93% of S&P 500 firms have reported earnings. These firms have a blended earnings growth rate of 24.5% as 77% have beaten sales estimates and 78% have beaten earnings estimates. If the 78% beat rate holds up, it will be the highest beat rate since…
3.2% Q2 GDP Growth Expected Which Is Bullish for Stocks
Solid E-commerce Sales The e-commerce sales for Q1 were released on Thursday. The quarter over quarter seasonally adjusted sales were up 3.9% which was higher than last quarter’s 3.2% growth. However, the year over year growth was down from 16.9% to 16.4%. Unsurprisingly, there was a big share gain since the retail sales at brick…
Russell 2000 Hits Another Record
Slightly Negative Friday The stock market was down slightly on Friday as the Nasdaq was down 0.38% and the S&P 500 was down 0.26%. The S&P 500 remains stable right after it broke out from its streak of lower highs. Personally, I’m bullish on American economic growth and earnings which means I expect a new all-time high,…
Manufacturing & Industrial Production Look Great
Industrial Production Was Strong I’m looking for green shoots in the economy as I expect Q2 to be a rebound from Q1. American economic growth is headed in the opposite direction as Japan and Europe which have decelerated. Emerging markets are doing poorly because the dollar has strengthened. After we get some green shoots, I…
Russell 2000 Hit A Record High
Russell 2000 Hits A New All-Time High The stock market reversed most of Tuesday’s decline as the S&P 500 was up 0.41% on Wednesday. It was a big day for the Russell 2000 as it hit a new record as it was up 1%. Some say the small caps can be leading indicators for the S&P 500. Here’s…
Apple Services Business Reviewed
Apple Services Revenue Mix Apple’s services business is becoming a big part of the thesis behind buying the stock as the smartphone market is saturated and there’s probably a limit to how much Apple can raise the prices of its iPhones. There was some pushback from the consumer after the $999 iPhone X came out.…
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