10 Year Yield Hits 3.09%: Still No Panic In Stocks
Slight Decline On Tuesday The stock market was down slightly on Tuesday as the S&P 500 was down 0.68% and the Dow was down 0.78%. The Dow ended its streak of 8 straight up days. The Russell 2000 was actually flat after it underperformed Monday. The sector performances show the main action on the day was…
Retail Sales Miss Can’t Support The Recent Rally
Market Sentiment Neutral It’s worth reviewing the market sentiment because we are in an uncertain moment in the near term for the stock market. The S&P 500 was able to exit the streak of lower lows. By doing this, it became fairly overbought in the past week. The hope was that this rally wouldn’t fade…
Rate Hikes Coming In June & September
Flat Stock Market On Monday The S&P 500 was up 0.09% as it gave back most of its gains from the morning. The Dow now has an 8 day winning streak. The Russell 2000, which is the closest major index to its all-time high, was down 0.4%. This flat market supports my thesis that the…
Retail Industry Up 18% Year To Date (S&P 500 Up Only 2%)
America Set To Outperform? Analysis have been toying with the thesis that America might take a strong leadership role in the growth of advanced economies. This would expand the S&P 500’s earnings multiple as capital comes back to America. America has weak competition as there has been a slowdown in Europe; South Korea has seen…
High Gas Prices To Wipe Away Tax Cut Benefits
Inflation Specifics Inflation has been increasing modestly this year. Since the inflation most often focused on is the year over year data, it’s important to recognize that there are base effects helping the rate look better than it is. It’s easy to grow on top of the disappointing growth numbers in 2017. The base effects…
Yield Curve On Pace To Invert In 3-4 Months
Yield Curve Inversion In 3-4 Months The ultimate signal for investors looking for the next recession is the yield curve. The chart below shows the difference between the 30 year yield and the 5 year yield. At the pace the yield curve is flattening, it will be inverted by August or September. To be clear,…
Stocks Breakout From The 3.5 Month Downtrend
S&P 500 Breakout There’s never a time where you want to celebrate being correct, because you’ll miss the next move. That being said, it appears the market is supporting the notion that this entire move since February was just a correction. As you can see from the chart below, with the 0.94% move upwards on…
South Korean Exports Imply Slowing Earnings Growth
Stocks Rally Based On The End Of The Iran Deal? The S&P 500 was up 0.97% on Wednesday. It’s interesting because the headlines claimed the market rallied because Trump exited the Iran deal. That’s a weird reason for the market to rally as it means more geopolitical uncertainty. I’m not necessarily willing to sell stocks because…
European Citi Surprise Index Is -100.1
Indexes For This Cycle The Citi Economic Surprise Index is like the CNN Fear and Greed Index in that I usually disagree with its assertions. They are both overly sensitive to changes in the market. I may be biased when reviewing these data points because I always compare the extremes with the financial crisis. For…
Record Number Of Vacant Jobs According To The JOLTS Report
Real Income Growth Is In Decline The labor market is one of the most important factors which affect the markets because it determines Fed policy and it determines personal income growth which is the money the consumer uses to make purchases. Of course, the consumer can borrow money, but people aren’t qualified nor able to…
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