Bear Market Repealed - S&P 500 Surpasses 2,800 For The First Time Since November

Bear Market Repealed Almost Fully Bear Market Repealed on Another solid rally on Friday that brought the S&P 500 very close to its record high in September. And it fully repeals the quick bear market.  Investors feared the worst in December. But now it’s clear America is only in a slowdown and is outperforming most…

Q4 GDP Growth Estimate Beat - Stocks Ignore It

Q4 GDP Growth Beats Estimates The stock market fell on Thursday. Yet quarter over quarter annualized GDP growth beat estimates for 2.2%. It was 2.6%. 2018 was the first year since 2004 where GDP growth was above 2% in all four quarters (2.2%, 4.2%, 3.4%, and 2.6%).  Stocks ignored the solid report because information on…

Redbook Sales Solid, MBA Applications, & Pending Home Sales

Redbook Sales - Same Store Sales Growth Moderates Redbook sales year over year same store sales growth rate of 5.4% last week supported the strong consumer sentiment reading.  Growth fell to 5.2% this week which is still above the 4.6% growth of 2 weeks ago. The deceleration from 9.3% in December has stalled for now.…

Consumer Expectations Soar On Rising Stock Market

Consumer Expectations - Confidence Rises The stock market is usually thought of as a reflection of the future economy. However, through the reflexivity theory, the stock market can cause changes to the economy.  Volatility paired with the trade war and the government shutdown to take down consumer confidence and other soft data reports. Noteworthy due…

Bad Earnings Reports Cause Individual Stock Crashes After Hours

Bad Earnings Reports - Mixed Wednesday Action The market was mostly flat on Wednesday. S&P 500 fell 5 basis points, the Nasdaq rose 7 basis points, and the Russell 2000 was up 0.23%. Biggest action was in the after hours session as many tech stocks fell. During the normal trading session, the worst 2 sectors…

QT - Fed to End It Sometime Between Late 2019 & Late 2020

QT - Mixed Dallas Manufacturing Fed Report Before getting into QT or Quantitative Tightening, let's review the Philly Fed. Relatively speaking, the Dallas Fed report was solid because the Philly Fed report was negative and the Markit flash PMI fell. The production index was down 4.4 points to 10.1 and the general business activity index…

Weak Housing Market & Weak Home Depot Earnings

Weak Housing Market - Small Caps Underperform On Tuesday, the stock market took a slight breather as the S&P 500 fell 8 basis points, the Nasdaq fell 7 basis points, and the Russell 2000 fell 0.71%. The VIX rose for the 2nd straight day as it increased 2.15% to 15.17. Maybe the spike on Monday was…

Stock Prices & Economy Don’t Compute

Stock Prices - What Is Priced In? The biggest question investors need to answer is “what is priced in?” The current market is particularly perplexing because of the extreme rally despite the global economic weakness. The S&P 500 has been above its 10 day moving average for 35 days. That's the longest streak in over…

American Stocks Hardly React To Positive Trade News

American Stocks - Very Slight Monday Rally The stock market rallied in the morning and sold off throughout the day. S&P 500 only closed up 0.12%. Nasdaq was up 0.36% and Russell 2000 fell 8 basis points.  The initial rally was caused by the increased potential for a trade deal. President Trump stated America wouldn’t increase…

Shanghai Composite Roars 5.6% On Positive Trade News

Shanghai Composite - Global Recession Here? With the slowdown in America, Europe, and China, it’s no surprise the global economy could be in a recession.  The World Trade Organization’s outlook for Q1 is 96.3 which is in the ‘below trend category.’ That’s the worst reading since March 2010. OECD categorizes the periods from 2011 to 2012…

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