2020: The Infamous Year Of The COVID-19 Crash

2020 Will Go Down In Infamy This is the worst market I’ve ever seen since I started following stocks in 2007. S&P 500 is only down 26.67% from its peak, but it’s clear we aren’t at the trough yet. This is already a historic period and it’s not over. Usually we can contextualize negative events…

Little Long Term Economic Impact From COVID-19

Jobless Claims Fall It's not surprising that jobless claims from the week of March 7th fell. The economy was just starting to deal with this crisis in the beginning of March. Think of all the news that has come out in the past few days. NBA and NHL are being shut down. Restaurants and bars in…

Unprecedented Pessimism: Recession Being Priced In

Quickest Bear Market Decline Ever In the past few weeks many have been discussing how this bear market due to COVID-19 isn’t as bad as the 2008 financial crisis. The situation is inching closer to the financial crisis and further away from the mini bear market of 2018.  VIX closed above 40 for the 4th straight…

2 Year High In Economic Surprises

Comical Economic Data Eeconomic data is comical at this point. We keep getting good results in the midst of an abject panic from stock market investors. Clearly, the economy was in great shape in January. And it was even better that many thought it would be in February.  We are still waiting for the shoe…

Stocks Will Fall Further Only If This Is A Recession

Big Tuesday Rebound The stock market rebounded sharply on Tuesday as it was up 4.94%. This makes sense because it was very oversold on Monday. There was a point in the morning where stocks went negative, but by the afternoon, stocks gained momentum and rallied to the close. That’s been a theme with rallies in…

Small Business Confidence Stays High, But Coronavirus Looms

High Small Business Confidence? The government is working on helping small businesses deal with the coronavirus. Normally, the NFIB small business confidence index rising from 104.3 to 104.5, which is in the top 10th percentile in the 46 year history of this report, is a positive. But this just shows small firms didn’t see the negative…

7th Biggest Decline Since WWII

Massive Selloff To Start The Week The stock market fell the 7th most in one day since WWII. This is the 5th greatest decline many have ever seen. As you can see in the table below, the 7.6% decline lagged the 1987 crash and the financial crisis. This crash is amazing because in context, the coronavirus doesn’t…

CEOs Call Stock Market Correction An Overreaction

CEO Confidence Is High? Let's review the details of the coronavirus, valuations, and the decline in rates. Skittishness in markets is potentially unlike anything we have seen in the last 10 years. Last year, CEO confidence was pointed out by the bears as a signal of a recession. Low confidence needs to be combined with…

Another Wild Friday As Stocks Avoid The Worst Declines

Another Crazy Friday Friday’s market was exactly like the previous Friday in that stocks were down sharply and exploded into the close. It’s common to hear chatter about investors not wanting to own risk assets into the weekend. But the reality is short sellers don’t want to be betting against stocks into the weekend. They…

Coronavirus Has No Impact On The Labor Market In February

Huge Difference In Services PMIs February ISM services PMI was so strong that it was the equivalent to 3% GDP growth. By the way, the Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast was updated on Friday. It shows 3.1% GDP growth in Q1. If it wasn’t for the coronavirus, 2020 would have been a turnaround year. Q1 growth…

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