Do You Remember Yahoo?

No One Can Believe This This market is unlike anything many have ever seen. Only people who invested from 1998 to 2000 have experienced anything similar. It’s like the 2018-19 marijuana bubble except it’s a much larger portion of the market. On Tuesday, the Nasdaq 100 was up 34 basis points; it’s on an 11…

Markets Don’t Care About December Weakness

Is The Economy Weakening? Everyone would normally want to know if the economy was weakening and by how much. However, traders have moved on to the post-COVID-19 economy. Frankly, we thought they would move on a few months earlier. This market has become very short term oriented which sort of makes it surprising that it…

Mega Nasdaq Bubble

Sell This Rally In Tech If you own any tech stocks with a greater than 30 PE ratio or any of the speculative EV, SaaS, or online retail stocks, you must sell them now. This is a rare moment where speculation exceeds basically every other market in history. The CNN fear and greed index is…

This Is Who Sees A Cyclical Recovery

Labor Force Participation Rate Falls Even though the unemployment rate fell 0.2% to 6.7%, this wasn’t a good report because the labor force participation rate fell from 61.7% to 61.5% which is a big decline. It’s down 1.9% from before the recession. Because of demographics, it might never regain all its losses, but it should…

Stocks Love The Weak Jobs Report

Euphoria Keeps Going Especially In Small Caps Small caps and cyclicals were riding high heading into the jobs report. Many were looking for a pullback once the weak jobs report came out. Instead small caps and value stocks rose even further. The short sellers must be at a loss if there are any left. They…

Labor Market Shows Signs Of Weakness

Disappointing Jobs Report Recent labor report disappointed estimates, but come out ahead of the ADP reading. The ADP report showed 307,000 private jobs added. The BLS report showed 344,000 private sector jobs added. That missed the consensus of 590,000 jobs and the lowest estimate which was 400,000. ADP finally got this one right after being…

Tech To Have A Bad 2021

Solid Day For Stocks Other Than S&P 500 Thursday was a mostly good day for stocks. There was some modest volatility near the close on the news that Pfizer cut its estimated vaccine distribution for 2020 in half. That’s not important to stocks. The year is practically over. Vaccines aren’t going out until the last…

Many Don’t See A Stimulus Passing In 2020

Update On Stimulus The latest headlines on the stimulus sound good, but many are actually quite skeptical. On Thursday, McConnell stated he has seen “hopeful signs” for a deal, but he released a $500 billion proposal. He hasn’t moved his stance in the past few months. Pelosi and Schumer backed the $908 billion bipartisan proposal.…

Snowflake, Carvana, and FuelCell Energy All Crater

Extreme Greed Continues The stock market inched up on Wednesday to a new record high. It continues to defy gravity. The CNN fear and greed index rose 2 points to 87 which is extreme greed. NAAIM index this week will be above 100 again since stocks haven’t fallen from last week. The AAII investor sentiment…

2020: Small Business Disaster

Small Businesses In Trouble NFIB survey is way too optimistic of a depiction of how small businesses are actually doing. The strength of small businesses is strongly dependent on the industry and state/city the business is in. Let’s look at more Paychex data from November. In Texas and Florida, the indexes are at 96.73 and…

Page 4 of 194