30 Year Yield - Biggest Decline Since Late 2011

Choppy Trading Action Continues The stock market rallied modestly on Wednesday as the choppy trading action continued. The S&P 500 was up 0.65%, the Nasdaq was up 0.38%, and the Russell 2000 was up 1.15%. The VIX was down 0.96 to 19.35 which still shows the market is in a correction. The CNN fear and…

Copper Futures Market Facing Extreme Negativity

Surprisingly Solid ISM PMI Likely Coming Based on the solid regional Fed manufacturing reports, the ISM manufacturing PMI will probably show modest sequential improvement. I expect the PMI to be from 51 to 53. The July reading was 51.2. August ISM PMI comes out on Tuesday. The chart below shows the improvement in the average…

Higher Yield for S&P 500 Than 30 Year Treasury (First Time In A Decade)

30 Year Yield Falls Below S&P 500 Dividend Yield    The stock market had a modest decline and treasury yields fell sharply on Tuesday. Even though August has been a volatile month, the total decline in stocks is nothing compared to the decline in yields. The best evidence of this is that the recent low of…

Big Tariffs Set To Go Into Effect This Fall

Below Trend Growth, No Recession Bears loved the July Chicago Fed National Activity index because it was negative for the 7th time in the past 8 months. It would have been 8 out of 8 if it wasn’t for the 5 basis point positive revision to the June reading. However, even with all this negativity, the…

Stocks Stuck In An Endless Loop Because Of The Trade War

Stocks Rally On Monday On Monday, the S&P 500 avoided making a new correction low as it increased 1.1%. Action has been extremely choppy in the past couple weeks as you can see from the chart below. The market has matched the rhetoric from President Trump and China on the trade war. It’s an endless…

Core Durable Goods Orders Weak - Potentially Solid ISM PMI Coming

Solid Headline Durable Goods Orders Growth The July durable goods orders report is an example of headline data not matching the details of the report. New orders growth was 2.1% monthly which beat estimates for 1.2% growth. That’s great even though the June reading was revised slightly lower from 2% to 1.8%. Yearly growth was…

Escalated Trade War Sends Stocks Down. How Bad Can It Get?

Big Stock Market Swoon On Increased Trade Tensions It looks more likely that the September tariffs will go into effect as President Trump sent out a few hawkish tweets on trade. This sent the stock market plummeting on Friday, upstaging Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. The stock market almost made new a correction low after it…

Data Point Suggests Recession Isn’t Coming

Amazing New Home Sales Revision It's always good look at the revisions to data as well as the latest numbers. Usually, I look at the latest numbers the closest. Revisions aren’t extreme and the market reacts to the latest numbers. In the case of the July new home sales report, the revision was extreme, which…

Jackson Hole Speech - Stocks Gear Up

Slight Selloff As Market Awaits Jackson Hole Speech It seems like all the market cares about is Fed policy because it barely moved on Thursday even though there was a lot of economic data released, some of which I reviewed in a previous article. As I’ve discussed in previous articles, Powell is speaking at Jackson…

Markit PMI Consistent With Just 1.5% Q3 GDP Growth

Strong Leading Economic Indicators On an intermediate term basis, the Conference Board leading economic indicators report doesn’t look good, but that’s not the fault of the July monthly reading which was very strong. Specifically, it was up 0.5% monthly which beat estimates for 0.2% growth and met the high end of the consensus range. Plus,…

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