Uncertainty On Wall Street - Most In At Least 20 Years

Big Rally On Trade News Stocks rallied sharply on Thursday as they got close to the high end of their recent range. The S&P 500 was up 1.3%. It’s now only down 1.65% from its record high in July. We’ve had a nice combination of positive news on trade, the Hong Kong protests, and Brexit.…

Vehicle Sales Increase, But So Do Job Cuts

High Job Cuts Again There have been a few Challenger Job Cut reports this year that have caused investors to worry about the labor market. Most were early in the year. The August reading was another worrisome signal although it wasn’t as bad as the big spikes this winter. Specifically, job cuts increased from 38,845…

Geopolitical Action Helps Stocks For A Change

Range Maintained The S&P 500’s range was maintained on Wednesday as it reversed the losses from Tuesday. The choppy action got choppier. You can see in the chart below how the market has moved nowhere ever since its decline in early August. This is an example of a sideways correction. You can debate that everything…

Q3 GDP Growth Just 1.5%

No Impact From Tariffs On Consumer Spending Yet Unless the boost in consumer spending growth in the last 2 weeks of August is related to pre-buying before the tariffs go into effect, the consumer is ignoring the tariffs and spending money normally. Specifically, the Redbook yearly same store sales growth reading in the week of…

Utilities Hit Another Record High

Weak PMIs and Trade War Send Stocks Lower The stock market started what is the worst month on average (September) with a loss as the S&P 500 fell 0.69% on Tuesday. The Nasdaq fell 1.11% and the Russell 2000 fell 1.51%. The VIX was up 0.68 to 19.66 as the market is still technically in…

ISM Manufacturing PMI Falls Into Contractionary Territory

Weak ISM Manufacturing Report Many investors were too pessimistic about the July ISM manufacturing PMI and slightly too optimistic about the August report. It’s possible that this ISM PMI is slightly too negative, but that misses the point. Manufacturing sector is in a slowdown and possibly a recession. This report gives us confirmation of what…

Second Down Month Of 2019 for Stocks

Market Ends Great Weak & Subpar Month The stock market ended up marginally on Friday which closed an amazing week and the 2nd down month of the year. The S&P 500 was up 6 basis points on Friday and 2.79% on the week. The trading session was interesting much like it was this month. The S&P…

July Consumption Growth Looks Great

Weak Pending Home Sales We have seen solid housing stats recently as new home sales in June hit a record high. However, the pending home sales index wasn’t part of this group of reports. After a good reading of 108.3 in June, the index fell 2.5% to 105.6 as you can see from the chart…

Stocks Rally On Trade Negotiations Which Are “At A Different Level”

Stocks Rally Again On Trade Talks It seems like we are going around in circles with this trade situation. New tariffs tend to lead to new negotiations on trade. It’s a tap dance. This isn’t a no holds barred trade war where each side wants to destroy the other. Instead each side is issuing tariffs…

Consumption Growth Explodes to 4.7% in Q2

First Q2 GDP Revision The Q2 GDP revision was very interesting even though headline growth barely changed. Specifically, real quarter over quarter growth fell from 2.1% to 2% which met estimates. Real consumer spending growth, which was already very strong, was revised even higher. It went from 4.3% to 4.7% which beat estimates 4.3%. Core…

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