Investors Bullish On Treasuries - Most Since Summer Of 2016

Investors Bullish - Another Decline Investors Bullish - The stock market fell for the 2nd straight day on Thursday. S&P 500 was down 0.21% and Nasdaq fell 0.16%. On the other hand, Russell 2000 rose 0.4% and VIX fell 2.57% to 14.42. Headlines blamed the decline on Powell’s hawkish stance. If a selloff of about 1% off the…

No Rate Cuts - Fed Is Unanimous

No Rate Cuts - Earnings Season Is Almost Over No Rate Cuts - Earnings season isn’t completely over and the rate of change of analysts’ estimates always matters. However, now that most firms have reported their Q1 results, investors’ focus will shift to economic reports. To be clear, it’s great that earnings estimates were beaten by a…

Hawkish Fed - Stocks Fall in Reaction

Hawkish Fed - Stocks Fall As Fed Won’t Cut Rates Stocks now must stand on their own because the Fed won’t support them with rate cuts. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing because earnings season has been solid and the ECRI leading index implies growth will improve later this year.  Atlanta Fed’s first few Nowcasts…

Fed Did Not Change Rates As Expected

Fed Did Not Change - Doesn't Hike Rates In a surprise to almost nobody, the Fed didn’t hike or cut rates at its meeting on May 1st. However, I don’t see the Fed cutting rates this year and the market does. As a result of the Fed decision and statement, the Fed funds futures market…

Apple Revenues Fall, But Its Stock Rallies

Apple Revenues Fall - Yet Soars After Hours On Earnings Beat Apple beat estimates on the top and bottom line which means Alphabet is the lone loser out of big internet firms this earnings season. Heading into earnings season, I was very interested to see how their stocks would react to their results given their amazing…

Q1 GDP Growth Was Weak, Despite Great Headline Number

Q1 GDP Growth - Leading Index Improves ECRI leading index at the start of the year implied Q2 and Q3 would be terrible quarters for the economy. Now the index is showing signs of green shoots.  As you can see in the chart below, the year over year growth rate improved to 1.4% in the week of…

Alphabet Stock Craters On Revenue Miss

Alphabet Stock - Misses Revenue Estimates Big tech firms had all reported solid earnings up until Alphabet reported on Monday. Netflix, Microsoft, Amazon, and Facebook have all been flying high. Alphabet ruined the streak as the company reported revenues of $36.34 billion which missed estimates for $37.33 billion. This miss sent its stock down 7.31% after…

Regional Fed Manufacturing Indexes Weak

Regional Fed Manufacturing Indexes - Big Spike In Jobless Claims In the week of April 20th, jobless claims exploded from 193,000 to 230,000. That’s a 37,000 increase. It was way above the consensus for 209,000 and the high end of the estimate range which was 210,000. It pushed the 4 week average from 201,500 to 206,000.…

Intel - Chipotle - Tesla - Weak, Strong and Disaster

Intel - Chipotle - Tesla - Intel Reports Weak 2019 Guidance Intel - Chipotle- Tesla - It’s very interesting to review Intel’s earnings because the SOXX semiconductors ETF is up 33% year to date. Investors clearly think the cycle has bottomed. Intel’s weak quarter could give these bullish speculators some worries. The semiconductor cycle is highly…

Home Price Growth Falls & Core Durable Goods Orders Were Strong

Home Price Growth - FHFA Home Price Index Home price growth is falling sharply which is making this year a great time to buy a house compared to last year when housing was more unaffordable. House prices don’t need to fall to become more affordable; growth just needs to fall. We’ve seen interest rates plummet…

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