Call Option Speculation Gone Vertical

Massive Stimulus Rally The stock market exploded on Tuesday in anticipation of a stimulus being passed later this week. It’s likely fully priced in now. And it's likely a stimulus will happen. This has been an amazing year for stocks as the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 are up 14.4% and 17.5% year to…

Fiscal Stimulus Might Be Here

COVID-19 Hurting Mobility Redbook same store sales growth in the week of December 12th rose from 2.1% to 2.5%. That’s still relatively weak. We’ve seen varying reports from this holiday season, but it hasn’t stopped retail stocks from moving higher as the XRT retail index is up 11% in the past month. Investors are looking past…

Record Euphoria Despite 4 Day Losing Streak

4 Day Losing Streak? Shockingly, the S&P 500 is on a 4 day losing streak. It fell 44 basis points on Monday. We say ‘shockingly’ because the other indexes have done well and the S&P 500’s declines have been so small (it’s barely noticeable). There is still about the same amount of euphoria in markets…

Finally, We Will Know If A Stimulus Will Pass

Latest Stimulus Talks The government has been funding its agencies through continuing resolutions since September. The latest 1 week resolution lasts until December 18th. This yearly spending bill is important because the stimulus could be added to it as well. Republicans are currently looking through the 400 page $1.4 trillion bill. Since the deadline is…

Disney Stock Hits The Stratosphere

Modest Decline On Friday The stock market ended the week on a 3 day losing streak as the S&P 500 fell 13 basis points. A COVID-19 relief bill hasn’t passed, the virus is spreading quickly, and the vaccines are on their way. In my opinion, the fact that there is still uncertainty is bullish for…

Full Vaccination By June, But No Stimulus In Sight

No Deal In Sight It's funny that Congresspeople said they are willing to stay in Washington until after Christmas to get a deal done, but they adjourned on Thursday (until next week). They could easily have worked on Friday if they really cared about getting something done by December 26th which is when pandemic unemployment insurance…

Fund Managers Have Never Been More Bullish

Another Rally For Tech & Small Caps The usual foes, which are small caps and large cap tech, joined together to rally on Thursday in spite of the weak jobless claims report and stalled stimulus talks. The good news was the FDA took a step towards approving Pfizer’s vaccine. At this point, if the FDA…

Jobless Claims Spiked

Jobless Claims Spike Recent estimates only called for a modest increase in initial claims. I said that was wrong. The economy is weakening. The decline in the prior week was because of Thanksgiving. It’s impossible for the labor market not to slow when states are adding restrictions. The deaths per day are at a record…

Nasdaq 100 Winning Streak Ends - It’s Still A Bubble

Stocks Finally Fall The stock market finally fell as the large cap growth stocks led the market lower on Wednesday. The headlines said the market fell because the stimulus talks hit a snag. That’s probably wrong because usually value stocks fall on that news not growth stocks. The 10 year bond yield wants a stimulus…

Fed Sees Downside Risks

Trouble For Congress Did anyone think it would be that easy for the government to pass a stimulus? The Republican proposal is $8 billion more than the bipartisan agreement. Plus, it got rid of liability protection, but that wasn’t enough for the Dems because the GOP got rid of the part of the plan which…

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