May Construction Report Terrible, But Solid June Motor Vehicle Sales

May Construction Report - Very Weak Residential Construction Growth The May construction report on spending was terrible. Mostly because of weakness in residential construction. It was down 0.8% monthly which missed estimates for 0.1% growth and April’s 0.4% growth. To be fair, April’s reading was revised up 4 tenths, so the comp got tougher. The…

10 Year Bond Yield Makes 52 Week Low While S&P 500 Hits Another Record

10 Year Bond Yield - Another Rally On Tuesday 10 Year Bond Yield - Before getting into the 10 Year Bond Yield, let's review the market. S&P 500’s winning streak hit 4 days on Tuesday as it hit a new record high. It’s close to significantly distancing itself from the prior 3 record highs which…

Non-Recessionary - Weak June Manufacturing PMIs Review

Non-Recessionary - Weak, But Not Disastrous Manufacturing PMIs June ended up being Non-Recessionary which shocked many investors. Calls for a recession grew louder. Despite the stock market at its all time high and weakness in the regional Fed manufacturing reports. Some investors were prepared for brutal manufacturing PMIs. That didn’t happen, which is a positive.…

June Dow - Best Since 1938

June Dow - Amazing First Half Ends On A High Note June Dow is the best since 1938. Also, the best first half we've seen in many years ended on a high note. S&P 500 increased 0.58%, Nasdaq increased 0.48%. And Russell 2000 increased 1.29% on Friday. As you can see from the chart below,…

Core Inflation Stays Below Fed’s 2% Target

Core Inflation - May PCE Report Details In May, headline PCE Core Inflation was 0.2% monthly. That beat estimates for 0.1%, but was below April’s reading of 0.3%. On a yearly basis, PCE was 1.5% which beat estimates for 1.4%, but fell from 1.6% in April. The all important core PCE inflation rate was 0.2%…

Financials Rally After-hours As Banks Raise Their Dividends & Buybacks

Financials Rally - Stocks Finally Rally Financials Rally as we finally see the stock market rally. The 4 day decline wasn’t much of a losing streak. There was only bad day out of the four. The decline ended on Thursday. S&P 500 increased 0.38%. Unlike Wednesday, this time the gains were maintained. Nasdaq increased 0.73%…

Improved Pending Home Sales Helped By Very Low Rates

Improved Pending Home Sales - Core Durable Goods Orders Weak, but Not Declining Before getting into Improved Pending Home Sales, let's review Durable Goods. The economic surprise index has been cratering in America. But it’s barely negative in Europe. It’s at -68.1 in America and -0.3 in Europe. In America it’s falling because of disappointing…

Stocks Await Results Of G20 Summit In Japan

Stocks Await Results - 4th Straight Decline Stocks Await Results of the G20 Summit. Saying stocks have declined 4 straight days sounds worse than it is. The market is only down 1.37% from its record high. A scary aspect for the bulls is the market has peaked at around the same level 4 times now. Yes,…

Weak New Homes Sales & Case Shiller Price Growth

Weak New Home Sales - March 2020 Recession Signal Weak New Home Sales may signal a recession. The May new home sales report wasn’t good. A negative revision to the March reading means the cycle high was November 2017. You can see this from the chart below. Median new home sales peak occurs 28 months…

Stocks Fall On Hawkish Fed Comments & Weak Consumer Sentiment

Stocks Fall on Hawkish Fed - Big Tuesday Decline Let's discuss Stocks Fall on Hawkish Fed. The stock market fell sharply on Tuesday. Partially because of the weak consumer confidence report. And partially because Bullard was less dovish. It’s surprising stocks weren’t down more when you consider how high they are and how bad the…

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