Don’s Trading Desk is the free daily market note from Don Kaufman, TheoTrade co-founder and former thinkorswim Chief Derivatives Instructor. Every trading day Don shares his market read, trade ideas, and volatility notes: what he’s watching, what he’s trading, and what everyone else is missing.

Three Stocks Just Flashed The Same Warning Signal

Three stocks just flashed the SAME warning signal. Costco. Emerging Markets. Broadcom. And I’m betting real money they’re about to reverse. Here’s what Wall Street doesn’t want you to see… We’re in a massive rotation – everyone’s chasing last year’s losers. Problem is, those moves already happened. Costco ripped 10% in three weeks because nobody

Read More »

Why This Market is More Fragile Than It Looks

Google is up 2% right now while the broader market bleeds. That’s not strength – it’s a warning sign. This morning I watched something unfold that every trader needs to understand.  The S&P stayed flat, the Dow dropped 300 points, and Google single-handedly propped up the NASDAQ. And when I say single-handedly, I meant it.

Read More »

They’re Not Coming for Jerome Powell. They’re Coming for Your Money.

While everyone debated the Jerome Powell investigation this morning, gold screamed up $100+ and silver exploded $6+. The metals saw what’s coming before the headlines caught up. They’re not coming for Jerome Powell. They’re sending a message to every Fed member about who’s really in charge. The administration simultaneously announced an investigation into Powell AND

Read More »

I Had the Quick Exit Today (And Didn’t Take It)

I had a 70% probability setup. The market gave me exactly what I expected. Then handed me an easy exit for quick profit. And I just… sat there. Not because I’m bleeding out or anything dramatic. It’s a one lot. I’ll be fine. But it’s the principle of the thing. I know better. And I

Read More »

Just dropped 3 trades on Schwab Network (symbols inside)

Just got off the Schwab Network Big 3 segment. Gave them three trades – two bullish, one bearish. All based on these absolutely manic rotations we’re seeing right now. The symbols: • XRT • MERCK • CAT Here’s what I told them: The market’s going 180 mph but can’t see five feet in front of

Read More »

Retail Is King of the Hill

The futures were unchanged this morning. Know what happened at cash open? The NASDAQ ripped higher the second retail could start buying calls. I’ve been in this business long enough to remember when S&P futures actually told you something about the trading session ahead. Not anymore. Overnight trade has not been a good indication of

Read More »

Welcome to the People’s Republic of NVIDIA

You probably saw the headlines: “Dow rallies 600 points as investors see little market risk from Venezuela action.” Chevron surged 4%, energy stocks celebrated, and everyone’s talking about rebuilding opportunities. Look, let me put this in perspective for you. ExxonMobil – the biggest energy player, the one everyone’s saying will benefit from Venezuela – has

Read More »

Overnight Futures Just Became Useless

What the hell happened this morning? I’m sitting here a couple hours into 2026, and I just watched something I haven’t seen in years. The overnight futures were screaming – up huge, decent volume, everything pointing to a strong open. Then retail walked in at 9:30 and said “nope.” Wiped out 10 handles like the

Read More »

Here’s where I was right (and dead wrong) in 2025

Last trading day of 2025. Time for the brutal scorecard. Look, a year ago today, I sat in this exact spot – probably with six monitors instead of two like I had that morning because my setup was screwed up – and I told you to “get ready to rumble.” And you know what? While

Read More »

Why Everything You Think About Silver Is Wrong

Silver shot up 7% this morning, and I watched everyone scramble to explain why. China wants delivery. Overnight futures pressure. Global demand. Inflation hedge. All wrong. By 11:30 AM, SLV had traded over 840,000 option contracts. To put that in perspective, that’s almost as much as NVIDIA (630K), Microsoft (86K), and Amazon (138K) COMBINED –

Read More »
Don Kaufman Don Kaufman

TheoTrade co-founder, former CBOE market maker and thinkorswim Chief Derivatives Instructor.

Read Don's full bio


Most Recent

How My Spreads Beat 50/50 Odds
Where Global Money Goes After The Fed Pauses
How Often Your Spread Has To Win
The Backup Plan Behind Your Stop Loss
The Only Times I Move My Stop Loss

Get educational market insights sent right to your inbox.