Can Bulls Finish the Week Strong?by Tony Rago Pre-market headlines around a potential Iran deal pushed futures back above yesterday’s highs, giving bulls the early momentum edge heading into the open. The key now is whether price can actually hold those reclaimed levels and build acceptance above the pre-market highs instead of fading the headline pop. Bulls still have work to do — 7,500 continues to act like a brick wall on ES, and NQ still needs to clear 29,612 cleanly to really squeeze momentum higher. When markets reclaim prior highs on news-driven catalysts, traders want to see follow-through and buyers defending dips, otherwise the move can quickly turn into another failed breakout. Headlines tied to Iran negotiations and energy markets have been driving overnight volatility across equities, bonds, and crude, so the tape remains highly reactive. This is one of those opens where patience matters more than prediction. If

NVDA Holds the Keys Todayby Tony Rago NVDA delivered another earnings beat, but the stock is trading relatively flat heading into the open — and that’s the real story this morning. After such a massive run and consistently strong reports, expectations were extremely elevated. When a stock carries this much weight in the Nasdaq and the S&P, the reaction matters just as much as the numbers themselves. So goes NVDA, so goes the tape today. If buyers lean into the report and push the stock higher, the indexes could easily squeeze again. But if the market starts fading the reaction, we could finally see some broader pressure show up across tech. The key levels remain pretty clean heading into the session. Bulls need to defend 7,400 on ES and continue holding it as support, while NQ needs to maintain 29,000 and 29,106 to keep momentum intact. Below those areas, things

All Eyes on NVDAby Tony Rago NVDA reports after the bell today, and after a dozen or so blowout quarters, the risk here probably isn’t bad numbers — it’s boring numbers. Expectations are sky-high, and when a stock carries this much weight in both the S&P and the Nasdaq, every tick matters. NVDA has been one of the primary engines behind this AI-driven rally, so the market will be dissecting not just the earnings, but the guidance, margins, and forward commentary. That’s why today could easily turn into another range-bound chop session as traders wait for the real catalyst after the close. In environments like this, patience becomes even more important. When the market is waiting on a major event, price can spend hours moving sideways, trapping traders who force action where there isn’t any. I’ll be watching closely how we trade around the weekly open, because that level should

Weekly Pivot in Focusby Tony Rago Price is poking above the weekly pivot pre-market on NQ and approaching that same key area on ES, making this one of the most important reference points heading into the open. Weekly pivots matter because they often act as major decision zones where institutions either accept price higher and continue trend — or reject it and rotate back the other way. Right behind that, I’ll also be watching the weekly opens closely. Those levels help frame the broader directional bias for the week ahead: bullish above, bearish below. When price is trading around these major reference areas, the reactions tend to tell you far more than predictions ever will. This is the kind of open where patience and observation matter more than speed. If buyers can gain acceptance above the weekly pivots and hold the weekly opens, momentum could build quickly into another trend

Heavy Tape Into Fridayby Tony Rago Some selling overnight off the all-time highs, and the tape definitely feels a bit heavier heading into the open. After such an aggressive run higher, this is the kind of action you’d expect to see if traders start taking profits or if buyers hesitate at these elevated levels. The real question now is how this dip gets handled during the RTH session. NQ bulls need to defend 29,106, while ES bulls need to continue holding the 7,400 area. Those levels are important because they help define whether this is simply rotation within a strong trend — or the beginning of a deeper pullback. What’s interesting is that bulls have consistently closed these weeks strong, even when the tape looked shaky intraday. That trend has rewarded patience and punished traders trying to force reversals too early. Today will be another good test of that dynamic.

Knocking on 7,500by Tony Rago ES is knocking on the door of the big 7,500 round number pre-market — an impressive move considering we’re nearly 100 points off yesterday morning’s lows. That kind of recovery tells you the underlying price action is still very strong to the upside, even after the volatility we’ve seen this week. NQ also continues to press higher and now looks poised to test 29,750 as long as buyers can defend 29,500 and hold above yesterday’s highs. Those prior highs become important this morning because they often act as either continuation triggers or resistance zones where sellers try to re-enter the tape. The key early read will come from how price reacts around those levels after the open. If buyers continue accepting above yesterday’s highs, momentum could accelerate again into fresh territory. But if sellers want a real shot at slowing this move down, they’ll need

Reversal Held — Now Comes the Real Testby Tony Rago Big reversal yesterday pushed NQ back above 29,250 and ES back through 7,412 after our first meaningful 2%+ pullback of this entire rally. That move was a perfect example of why we continue to respect the weekly pivot levels — NQ tagged the pivot, held cleanly, and reversed hard from there. Those areas matter because they often become inflection points where institutions defend trend or press for reversal. This morning though, PPI came in very hot pre-market, so we could be setting up for a much bumpier open as traders digest the inflation data and reassess risk. The key area I’m watching on NQ is the halfway-back level of yesterday’s rally at 29,106. Bulls need to defend that zone if they want to maintain momentum and keep the reversal intact. Bears, on the other hand, finally have an opportunity if

CPI Reaction — Bulls Face the Testby Tony Rago CPI came in a little hot this morning, but overall it was still largely in line with expectations — enough to create some overnight weakness without fully breaking the broader trend. Bulls are going to get tested at the open here, especially after such an extended move higher over the last few weeks. NQ still looks like it wants a proper test of the big 29K round number, but for that to happen, bears need to continue defending 29,312 as resistance. If that level holds, there’s room for price to rotate lower and finally probe some deeper support areas before buyers potentially step back in. This is where the opening range becomes critical. Early reactions around data releases can be emotional and noisy, so instead of forcing a bias, I’ll let the market open and show who actually has control. If