Bulls Have the Ball — Can They Keep It?by Tony Rago Nice rally off yesterday’s lows, and now we’re right back into a major resistance zone. The bulls have an opportunity here, but they need to follow through today — holding NQ above 30,000 and ES above 7,788 will be key to keeping the momentum alive. These are important levels to defend if buyers want to turn yesterday’s recovery into something more than just a bounce. With the midterms right around the corner, we could also start seeing some of that historical midterm seasonality come into play, potentially giving the market another tailwind. For now, price is putting the ball in the bulls’ court. I’m leaning toward some continuation from buyers today, but we still need the opening ranges to confirm that read. If the bulls can hold those levels and build on yesterday’s strength, there may be room for

Turnaround Tuesday? Bulls Need to Show Upby Tony Rago Bulls are struggling to hold on to any meaningful moves, so the question is whether today brings a turnaround or more of the same. Buyers need to defend 7,700 on ES and rip back above 7,750 to change the current picture. Without that, price action is pointing toward a retest of last week’s lows. On NQ, the bulls need to defend the 29,412/29,433 zone and reclaim 29,750. If they can’t, we risk another leg lower toward last week’s lows, with 29,250 and 29,106 in focus. These are the levels that matter as we see whether buyers can finally regain some control. Let’s see how we open and go from there. We’ve had too many failed breakouts lately, so I want to see price prove itself before jumping in. If a real breakout develops, there’s no shame in buying higher once the

Tech Under Pressure — Will the Bulls Answer?by Tony Rago New week, new opportunities! Last week was a big one for the bears, and tech took a serious hit. Overnight inventory is long, so the big question coming into the open is whether the bulls will show up and start repairing some of last week’s damage — or if sellers still have more work to do. Tech earnings kick off this week with NFLX tomorrow and TSLA on Wednesday, adding another layer to an already important stretch. Plenty of stocks are looking cheaper after the selloff, but will buyers step in and gain traction, or is something bigger at play — namely, the AI bubble finally coming under pressure? This could be a pivotal week. We’re entering the final two weeks before the midterms, volatility is back, and the VIX is no longer sitting quietly on the floor. I’ll be

The 7,800 and 30,000 Battleby Tony Rago Quiet overnight session, with price clinging to the big 7,800 round number on ES and 30,000 on NQ. Those are the key lines in the sand for me today. Can the bulls convert these levels into support, or will the bears seal them off and push us back toward yesterday’s lows? That’s the battle heading into the open. If NQ can hold above 30,000, I’m looking for a move toward 30,250. On ES, sustained trade above 7,800 opens the door to 7,833. Those are the upside targets if buyers can establish control and follow through. It’s Friday, and the overall trend is still down, so we need to see how price handles these big levels before getting too aggressive. A reclaim is one thing — holding above it is what matters. If buyers can’t maintain control, the bears may get another opportunity to

Hot PPI, Live VIX — Let the Levels Leadby Tony Rago PPI came in pretty hot, setting us up for another potentially bearish day. But I’m not condemning the tape just yet — price is the only thing that matters, and we’ll do what we always do: let the opening ranges tell the story. On NQ, I’m looking for a potential bounce around 29,633. On ES, the 7,717/7,712 area is in focus, with 7,700 as the big round-number level below. Those are the areas I want to see price react around as we figure out whether buyers are ready to step in or sellers are going to keep pressing. The VIX has come to life, and volatility is back in the picture. That means moves can happen quickly in either direction, so this is not the time to chase price or force a trade just because the tape feels heavy.

Hot CPI — Dip Buyers Have Work to Doby Tony Rago CPI came in hot and pushed us through yesterday’s lows, putting the bulls on the defensive right out of the gate. Dip buyers will have their work cut out for them today, and this could open the door to a deeper pullback toward 7,700 and 7,677 on ES. On NQ, we could easily see price go after the open gaps below, with 30,500 being the key level to watch from here. The question is whether buyers can step in and absorb this weakness or if sellers are just getting started. We need to let the market open and see whether the bears have enough momentum to carry this move into regular trading hours, or if the bulls are ready to defend and push price back up. After a hot inflation number, reactions can be quick and messy, so there’s

Disconnected Markets — Let the Open Tell the Storyby Tony Rago Hi Team! We’ve got a big push on NQ down to 30,612, while ES has barely moved. That leaves us with a clear disconnect between the two markets heading into the open, and that can make trading a bit tricky. ES typically leads NQ, but with NQ showing considerably more weakness this morning, we’ll need to see whether that pressure starts spilling over into ES or if the two continue to trade independently. Coming into the open, NQ is clearly the weaker of the two, and how that relationship develops will be an important part of today’s read. If the markets remain uncorrelated, keep it simple: trade your specific market, focus on your setups, and don’t let the action in one dictate decisions in the other. This is exactly why we let the opening ranges develop before deciding which

Round Numbers and Opening Cluesby Tony Rago New week, new opportunities to make money! I’ll be watching the big 31,000 round number on NQ and 7,850 on ES at the open for clues about which side is ready to take control. On NQ, the bias is bullish above 31,000 and 31,106, while sustained trade below those levels favors the bears. On ES, Friday’s highs and the weekly open are the key levels to watch, and we’re coming into the open below them. Bulls need to reclaim those levels and hold above them to get a real push going. Until then, the burden is on buyers to prove they can take control. Keep in mind it’s a bank holiday, so trading volume could be light again. We also have economic data coming in during the first 30 minutes, so be mindful of the potential for quick moves around those releases. If