Hey trader, Thursday morning, I was talking with Don Kaufman before my session, and we both agreed that too many people were getting taken apart this week. One line from that conversation stuck with me. “Volatility is really good at systematically dismantling people.” We were not just talking about money. We were talking about what
Range Break — Expansion Modeby Tony Rago We’ve finally broken down out of that multi-month sideways range that’s been in place since November, and that shift in structure matters. When markets transition from balance to imbalance, it often opens the door for range expansion — and that’s where we are now. With VIX pushing up
Sell the Rally — Until Proven Otherwiseby Tony Rago We’re still operating in a “sell the rallies” environment, and that framework hasn’t changed. As long as price remains below the 200-day moving average — a widely watched trend indicator that helps define longer-term direction — the bears maintain the edge. That doesn’t mean we won’t
Headline Tape — Stay Tacticalby Tony Rago We’re still chopping around the weekly pivots, and that’s keeping things tight and reactive. Bulls continue to struggle to hold any meaningful extension, which tells you momentum isn’t sticking — every push higher is getting met with supply. When price hovers around key pivot levels like this, it
Inside Balance — Waiting on the Breakby Tony Rago We’re opening up inside yesterday’s range, and that typically signals balance — a market that’s waiting on its next catalyst before committing direction. When we sit inside prior range like this, it often becomes a two-sided trade until something breaks us free. I’ll be keyed in
Waiting on the Catalystby Tony Rago We’ve got a big news drop hitting at 7am, and that alone shifts the playbook — not much edge in overanalyzing levels before the tape has a chance to react. When you have a scheduled catalyst like this, price tends to stay compressed or erratic until the information gets
Hey trader, Thursday morning was ugly. Gold had dropped over $300…crude was spiking…the NQ gapped down so hard that the first two-minute candle printed a 100-handle bar. The entire week’s rally, the roll gap fill, the push toward 25,000, all of it evaporated overnight. A trader in the chat named Matthew wanted to get aggressively
Struggling to Sustain — Friday Test Aheadby Tony Rago We’re heading into Friday with the same theme — rallies just can’t stick. Price continues to fade strength, and now the focus shifts toward a potential 6600 test on ES, with yesterday’s low lining up as our overnight floor. That level matters because it’s where buyers
Below the Weekly — Pressure Buildsby Tony Rago More weakness stepping in here as we trade below the weekly open — a level that often acts as a directional pivot for the broader session. Holding below it keeps sellers in control, reinforcing the current “sell-the-rally” environment. Crude continues to lean on the indexes, adding
Hot PPI — FED Day Playbookby Tony Rago PPI came in hot this morning, and the tape reacted exactly how you’d expect — pressure right out of the gate. NQ bulls have been putting in serious work lately, but the issue hasn’t been the push higher… it’s the inability to hold those rallies. That’s a
