Squeeze Back to Resistanceby Tony Rago Strong squeeze out of that oversold pocket and we’ve now pushed right back into 24K on NQ and 6,600 on ES — levels that matter. When you get a move like that, fast and aggressive, the question shifts from direction to sustainability. Moves that go “too far too fast”
Headline Push — But Watch the Trapby Tony Rago Another headline hits and we’re seeing that familiar pre-market push higher, but the real question is whether this move has substance or is just another setup. I’m still leaning toward an upside move that could catch traders off guard — the kind that squeezes through positioning
Pushing Inventory — But Can It Stick?by Tony Rago Overnight inventory came in long, and you can see them trying to push price higher early — the question is whether that positioning fuels continuation or sets up a squeeze the other way. When inventory leans too far one direction, it often needs to rebalance, and
Hey trader, Thursday morning, I was talking with Don Kaufman before my session, and we both agreed that too many people were getting taken apart this week. One line from that conversation stuck with me. “Volatility is really good at systematically dismantling people.” We were not just talking about money. We were talking about what
Range Break — Expansion Modeby Tony Rago We’ve finally broken down out of that multi-month sideways range that’s been in place since November, and that shift in structure matters. When markets transition from balance to imbalance, it often opens the door for range expansion — and that’s where we are now. With VIX pushing up
Sell the Rally — Until Proven Otherwiseby Tony Rago We’re still operating in a “sell the rallies” environment, and that framework hasn’t changed. As long as price remains below the 200-day moving average — a widely watched trend indicator that helps define longer-term direction — the bears maintain the edge. That doesn’t mean we won’t
Headline Tape — Stay Tacticalby Tony Rago We’re still chopping around the weekly pivots, and that’s keeping things tight and reactive. Bulls continue to struggle to hold any meaningful extension, which tells you momentum isn’t sticking — every push higher is getting met with supply. When price hovers around key pivot levels like this, it
Inside Balance — Waiting on the Breakby Tony Rago We’re opening up inside yesterday’s range, and that typically signals balance — a market that’s waiting on its next catalyst before committing direction. When we sit inside prior range like this, it often becomes a two-sided trade until something breaks us free. I’ll be keyed in
Waiting on the Catalystby Tony Rago We’ve got a big news drop hitting at 7am, and that alone shifts the playbook — not much edge in overanalyzing levels before the tape has a chance to react. When you have a scheduled catalyst like this, price tends to stay compressed or erratic until the information gets
Hey trader, Thursday morning was ugly. Gold had dropped over $300…crude was spiking…the NQ gapped down so hard that the first two-minute candle printed a 100-handle bar. The entire week’s rally, the roll gap fill, the push toward 25,000, all of it evaporated overnight. A trader in the chat named Matthew wanted to get aggressively
