Jobs Report Shifts the Focusby Tony Rago This morning’s NFP report came in softer than expected, and the market appears to be interpreting that as reducing the odds of another near-term rate hike. That gives the bulls an opportunity to regain control after yesterday’s weakness, particularly in the tech sector, which took the brunt of the selling. Now the question is whether buyers step back into those names and turn today’s session into a meaningful retracement. For NQ, the roadmap is clear: reclaim 30,250, hold it as support, and build momentum back toward 30,500. If buyers can accomplish that, the tone of the market could improve quickly. As always, the opening range should provide the first real clues. Rather than assuming the report guarantees higher prices, I want to see the market confirm the move with strong participation and follow-through. If buyers fail to reclaim those key levels, yesterday’s pressure

Fed Chair Takes Center Stageby Tony Rago Today is all about the Fed Chair’s speech at the open. Expect elevated volatility, sharp swings, and plenty of headline-driven reactions as traders digest every word. Sessions like this can create tremendous opportunity, but only for those who stay patient enough to let the market reveal its hand. My plan is to let the initial reaction play out before getting involved. Chasing the first move on a Fed-driven day is rarely the highest-probability trade. I’d much rather trade the fallout once the dust settles and the market begins to establish direction. Today’s expected ranges are significantly larger than normal, so risk management needs to be front and center. Don’t get caught up trying to capture every move or forcing trades in the middle of the noise. There will be plenty of opportunity throughout the session once cleaner setups develop. Stay disciplined, stick to

Quarter-End Crossroadsby Tony Rago Today marks the final trading day of the second quarter, so keep quarter-end flows on your radar. We could see price stall near current levels as institutions square up positions, or we could get a breakout fueled by “window dressing” and quarter-end markup. With volatility still elevated, this market may not follow the typical script, so flexibility is key. Technically, we’re seeing lower highs on the 4-hour chart while the 1-hour trend is still constructive, setting the stage for what could be a choppy and two-sided open. That kind of mixed picture usually rewards traders who stay patient rather than trying to predict the first move. My plan is simple: wait for a quality setup and let some of the opening volatility burn off before getting involved. There’s no need to force trades when the market is still deciding on direction. Stay balanced, avoid becoming too

New Week, Fresh Opportunitiesby Tony Rago New week, new opportunities to make money. While today’s calendar is relatively quiet, the week ahead is anything but, with employment data on Thursday likely to become the market’s main focus. That could keep traders cautious early in the week as positions are adjusted ahead of the bigger economic releases. With no major news on deck today, there’s a good chance we spend time developing a wider trading range before the market shows its true hand. That’s why I’ll be letting the first 15–30 minutes play out before getting too involved. The opening range often provides the clearest roadmap for the rest of the session. Bulls have the early momentum overnight, but now they need to prove they can defend it. On NQ, I’ll be watching 29,500 along with the weekly open as key support on any pullback. Over on ES, 7,433 and the

Respect the Volatilityby Tony Rago It’s Friday, and the trend remains lower across multiple time frames. Right now, we’re trading a volatility event, and today could easily bring more of the same. Yesterday was a great reminder of just how quickly this tape can move, with the 2-minute ATR stretching to nearly 130 points at one stage. Those kinds of conditions create opportunity, but they can also punish traders who overstay positions or force trades that aren’t there. This isn’t the environment to trade bigger just because the ranges are larger. If anything, it’s the opposite. Stay disciplined, respect the volatility, and let the market come to you. From a directional standpoint, bears still have the ball. Rallies continue to get sold, and until buyers can start reclaiming key levels with conviction, the path of least resistance remains lower. That doesn’t mean every bounce should be faded blindly—it means letting

MU Sparks the Rally — Now What?by Tony Rago Micron’s earnings did exactly what bulls were hoping for — a big beat that lifted sentiment across the board and helped push the indexes higher overnight. The reaction reinforces the theme that has been driving this market for months: AI and semiconductors continue to be the engine under the hood. The question now is whether the market can build on that momentum once the cash session opens. ES still has unfinished business at the 7,500 level, while NQ is running into resistance near 30,250. Those areas should tell us quickly whether buyers are ready to extend the move or if some profit-taking shows up after the initial excitement. What I’ll be watching closely is any retracement that gets bought. On NQ, the halfway-back level sits at 29,833, while ES has a similar checkpoint around 7,450. If this rally is real and

Key Levels Still Define the Tapeby Tony Rago It was a choppy overnight session, and price remains below two of the biggest levels on the board: 7,500 on ES and 30,000 on NQ. Those are the levels bulls need to reclaim and break out above if they want to regain control and put this market back into rally mode. Until then, the burden of proof remains on the buyers. NQ bulls need to defend 29,500 on any pullback, while ES bulls need to continue holding the 7,400 area from above. These are the zones where buyers have an opportunity to prove demand is still present and that this recent weakness is simply consolidation rather than something more significant. For the bears, the playbook is straightforward. Continue selling rallies into resistance and keep pressure on those key support zones at 7,400 and 29,500. If those levels start breaking down, the market

Dip Buyers Get Their Testby Tony Rago Dip buyers are about to find out what they’re made of. We saw a big roll lower overnight with NQ down roughly 3% and ES off about 1.5%, marking the sharpest test of buyers we’ve seen in quite some time. This is the type of pullback many traders have been waiting for, but wanting a dip and buying a dip are two very different things. The key level for NQ sits at 29,750. If bulls can’t defend that area at the open, the path toward 29,500 could open up quickly. After months of buyers stepping in on weakness, today could provide some important clues about whether that behavior is still intact. Patience is going to be critical. I have no interest in forcing trades early and plan to let the market open before making any decisions. If buyers show up and reclaim 29,912

Back From the Long Weekend by Tony Rago We opened with a gap down and then spent the session grinding right back toward 30,833 on NQ and 7,573 on ES. That kind of recovery tells you buyers are still willing to step in, but the real test begins now. My focus today is squarely on the weekly opens and weekly pivots. These are the levels that often determine whether a move has staying power or simply becomes another short-term reaction. Bulls need to defend any backtest of those areas and prove they can hold them as support. Bears, meanwhile, want to push price back below and turn those same levels into resistance. The key is keeping things simple. If we lose the weekly opens, then the pre-market lows immediately come back into play as downside targets. If buyers continue defending those key reference points, the market has room to build