Back Into the Rangeby Tony Rago A nice flush at the Globex open got scooped up quickly, and now we find ourselves right back inside yesterday’s range. That’s an important development because it tells us buyers were willing to step in aggressively after the overnight weakness. At the same time, wide overnight ranges like this often lead to bigger intraday moves once the cash session gets underway. Volatility tends to create opportunity, but it also demands patience and discipline. The market has already shown it can move quickly in both directions, so today could easily turn into a battle over key levels rather than a clean trend day. For the bulls, the focus remains on defending 28,500 on NQ along with the 7,277–7,288 zone on ES. If those areas hold, buyers have a chance to keep stabilizing the tape and work higher. Bears, on the other hand, want to continue

Patience Pays in a Volatile Tapeby Tony Rago CPI came in largely in line with expectations, but at 4.2% inflation remains elevated enough to keep traders on edge. We’re seeing more weakness overnight, and with the VIX sitting around 21, volatility is still very much part of the equation. The real question now is how the market reacts once the regular trading session gets underway. Economic data may have been expected, but that doesn’t mean price has fully decided what it wants to do with the information. In environments like this, reactions matter more than the headline itself. Today is all about patience and risk management. The swings have been large enough that getting caught on the wrong side of a move can become expensive very quickly. Hyper-volatility tends to reward traders who stay disciplined and punish those who force action. That’s why I plan on sitting out the first

Weekly Pivot Still in Playby Tony Rago Yesterday’s bounce was respectable, but both ES and NQ still closed below their weekly pivots, giving bears a slight advantage coming into the open. That keeps the burden of proof on the buyers today. For sellers to maintain control, they need to keep price pinned below 7,462 on ES and 29,750 on NQ while pressing the market back toward the overnight lows. Those levels become the line in the sand early, and how price reacts around them should tell us a lot about who’s actually in charge. Closing below a weekly pivot doesn’t guarantee lower prices, but it does shift the short-term odds until buyers can reclaim those areas. On the flip side, if bulls can regain those levels, the roadmap becomes pretty straightforward. NQ would likely set its sights back on the big 30K test, while ES could make another run toward

Bounce or Something More?by Tony Rago We’re seeing a bounce overnight, which is exactly what you’d expect after the kind of one-day rout we saw last week. The question now is whether buyers can build on it once the cash session opens or if this is simply a relief rally before more volatility shows up. After a sharp move lower, it’s easy to assume the market will continue bouncing, but that’s where traders can get into trouble. The focus today is making price prove it. Let the market show real acceptance higher before assuming the worst is behind us. For me, today is all about patience. I plan to let the first 30 minutes play out and use that opening range to frame the day. Those early levels often tell you who has control and whether buyers are truly stepping back in with conviction. We’re kicking off a new week,

Another Dip, Another Testby Tony Rago Some new weekly lows printed overnight following the payroll numbers, and once again the market finds itself at an important decision point. The weakness certainly feels heavier than what we’ve seen recently, but that has been the story for weeks now — every meaningful dip has eventually found buyers. That’s why the focus remains on price, not opinions. It’s easy to look at a weak tape and assume a bigger pullback is coming, but the market has consistently rewarded traders who stayed objective and respected what price was actually doing rather than what they thought it should do. Today is all about whether buyers show up again. If they do, this could turn into another example of a market absorbing bad news and pushing higher. If they don’t, we may finally start seeing a deeper pullback gain traction. Either way, it’s Friday, and the

Buyers Face a Testby Tony Rago Overnight weakness is holding for now, and that puts the spotlight squarely on the bulls heading into the open. After such a strong run higher, it’s not unusual to see the market finally start testing buyers’ conviction. The key area today is yesterday’s lows — bulls need to defend those levels if they want to keep the broader uptrend intact and avoid opening the door to a deeper retracement. So far, ES has been leading the weakness while NQ continues doing most of the heavy lifting. That divergence is worth watching because when leadership starts to narrow, it can sometimes be an early clue that momentum is shifting beneath the surface. The big question is whether this is simply another routine pullback that gets bought, or the beginning of something larger. We’ve seen buyers step in repeatedly throughout this rally, but eventually every trend

NQ Still Leading the Chargeby Tony Rago More highs overnight on NQ, and the Nasdaq continues to lead everything higher. That leadership has been one of the defining characteristics of this rally, with tech and AI-related names continuing to attract buyers on even the smallest pullbacks. ES is still playing catch-up, and bulls need to keep defending 7,600 while working to complete the move toward 7,633. As long as those key support levels continue to hold, the path of least resistance remains to the upside. The trend has been remarkably resilient, and until proven otherwise, price deserves our respect. One thing worth keeping an eye on this morning is crude, which has pushed back to 96. The market has largely ignored higher energy prices so far, but as traders know, the tape doesn’t care until it suddenly does. Rising crude could be hinting at additional geopolitical headlines or broader concerns

Back to the Key Levelsby Tony Rago Overnight weakness got bought once again, and now we’re right back testing 30,500 on NQ and 7,600 on ES. That resilience has been the story of this market for weeks, but today could be an important test for the bulls. On NQ, buyers need to defend 30,412 along with the weekly open if they want to keep the path toward higher prices intact. ES has a similar setup — bulls need to convert 7,600 into support, hold the weekly open, and then make a run at 7,633. These are the levels that will tell us whether buyers still have full control or if momentum is starting to cool off. The flip side is pretty straightforward. If we start losing those weekly opens, yesterday’s lows immediately come into play and could become magnets for price. That doesn’t necessarily change the bigger trend, but it

New Month, Same Strong Tapeby Tony Rago New week, new month, and the market continues to show impressive strength. Many stocks are still running hard to the upside, which keeps the focus on pullback opportunities rather than trying to fade momentum. The key question now is where buyers choose to step in. On NQ, I’d like to see a pullback into the weekly pivot to get a better read on demand and whether buyers are still willing to defend value. ES is working on converting 7,600 into support, and a test of that area this morning could provide some important clues about the market’s next move. When former resistance starts acting as support, it often becomes a key checkpoint for trend continuation. As always, there’s no reason to force an opinion before the market gives us information. Strong trends can continue much longer than most expect, but they also require