Waiting on the Next Catalystby Tony Rago No economic data this morning and big earnings hitting after the bell, so we could be in for another slow summer tape. That said, I still expect the first hour to bring some volatility as traders position around these key levels. It’s all about the weekly pivots today. NQ is sitting basically right at its weekly pivot, while ES is trading below it. Bulls need to reclaim those levels and build some momentum from there if they’re going to push this market higher. The bigger picture remains sideways. Bulls have done a good job defending the pullbacks, but they continue to struggle to sustain rallies, which tells me the market is still waiting for a catalyst to spark the next real leg. Until that happens, we need to stay flexible and avoid forcing a directional bias. Let the opening range develop, watch how

Waiting for Someone to Take the Ballby Tony Rago Another consolidation day with neither side willing to take control. Today, I’m looking for that to change. On ES, bulls need to defend the 7,488–7,500 zone and build toward 7,550–7,562. On NQ, the 29,000 level remains the key line in the sand, with buyers needing to hold it and reclaim 29,250 to start shifting momentum back in their favor. If sellers step in, they need to turn 7,488 and 29,000 into resistance and open the door toward 7,450 on ES and 28,633 on NQ. The levels are clear—the question is which side can actually follow through. With big earnings on deck tomorrow and no major economic news scheduled today, another range-bound session wouldn’t surprise me. That means we need to stay flexible and avoid forcing a directional bias just because the market feels quiet. If buyers show up, we’ll trade with

New Week, New Opportunitiesby Tony Rago New week, new opportunities to make money. Bulls are trying to defend some key levels overnight, with 29,000 on NQ and 7,500 on ES continuing to act as important battlegrounds. Adding to that, the weekly pivots are sitting right in the same neighborhood, making them the key levels I’ll be watching at the open. As a general rule, holding above the weekly pivots keeps the short-term bias bullish, while losing them shifts the advantage back to the bears. The first 15–30 minutes should give us a good read on which side is ready to take control. Another thing on my radar is the VIX. After spending time near the mid-15s, it’s beginning to lift, and that’s something worth paying attention to. Seasonally, volatility tends to build into August, so this could be the beginning of that shift. It doesn’t necessarily mean markets have to

Respect the Tapeby Tony Rago Another large move played out overnight, which often leaves us with a choppy and unpredictable open as the market digests those overnight swings. The higher-time-frame trend remains firmly bearish, particularly on the NQ, and that’s the backdrop we have to respect. While I expect we’ll see plenty of rallies throughout the session, those bounces are likely to attract sellers until proven otherwise. At the same time, we’re still in an environment where headlines can quickly change the tone of the market, so don’t be surprised if news-driven spikes attempt to “save the tape” throughout the day. Volatility remains the name of the game. These are some of the toughest conditions to trade because following price often means selling after a sharp decline, which can feel uncomfortable and carry additional risk. That’s why patience matters. My plan is to let the first 15 minutes play out,

Bulls Need to Prove Itby Tony Rago Coming into the open, inventory is leaning short, but the bigger story is that bulls have struggled to sustain any meaningful rallies this week. Buyers continue stepping in on pullbacks, yet every push higher has faded—especially on the NQ. That leaves the market vulnerable to a deeper retracement if buyers can’t start showing stronger follow-through. It’s an important reminder that defending support is only half the battle. Eventually, bulls need to turn those defenses into sustained momentum, or sellers will keep regaining control. My focus today will be on yesterday’s lows in NQ as the opening bell approaches. Until the hourly trend flips back to bullish, I’m more interested in selling rallies than chasing strength. That said, this is no time to become married to a bias. Headline risk remains elevated, and with Netflix kicking off tech earnings today, the market could shift

Can the Bulls Finally Break Out?by Tony Rago Bulls are doing their best to defend the 7,600 level in the pre-market, but now they need to follow through. This has been an important battleground, and if buyers can finally break free from this consolidation zone, the next upside targets come into focus at 7,633 and 7,650 on ES. Momentum has been building, but now it’s time for the bulls to prove they can sustain it. Holding support is one thing—turning it into a launchpad is another. NQ has a similar roadmap. Buyers need to push through the pre-market high at 30,062 and build toward 30,106 and ultimately 30,250. Those levels could open the door to a stronger directional move if buyers show up with conviction. As always, the opening range will be the first real clue. Rather than guessing which side wins, let the market establish direction and trade what

CPI Sets the Stage—Now the Market Decidesby Tony Rago CPI came in just a touch softer than expected, but only marginally so. The question now is whether that’s enough to give buyers the fuel they need or if the market was already pricing in a similar outcome. Bulls have an opportunity, but they need to defend the weekly pivots during the regular trading session and build back toward yesterday’s highs. Holding those key levels would keep the short-term momentum intact and put buyers back in control after the overnight reaction. Adding another layer to today’s session, Fed Chair Warsh is scheduled to testify this morning, which means headline-driven volatility could show up at any point. Markets often react quickly to comments from the Fed, so it’s important to stay flexible and avoid getting married to a bias. Keep your head on a swivel, let the opening range develop, and trade

New Week, Fresh Opportunitiesby Tony Rago New week, new opportunities to make money. This week brings plenty of potential catalysts with CPI and PPI on the calendar, while Netflix officially kicks off tech earnings on Thursday. Friday’s rally was a steady, low-volume grind higher that pushed ES back above 7,612 and NQ back over the 30,000 round number. Those were encouraging closes, but now the bulls need to prove they can hold those gains. It’s one thing to reclaim an important level—it’s another to defend it once the market opens and real participation steps back in. Coming into the session, inventory is leaning short, so the early advantage belongs to the bulls if they can come out swinging. Holding above 29,412 on NQ and 7,562 on ES will be critical. Lose those areas, and the tape could get slippery in a hurry, opening the door for a deeper pullback. My