Rangebound — Bulls Need to Break Outby Tony Rago CPI came in inline with estimates, and price is still hanging inside the same range we’ve been living in since last week. Today, I’m focused on where price is relative to the weekly opens: 7,777 on ES and 29,851 on NQ. If the bulls can hold those levels from above, we have a shot at breaking out to new weekly highs. Until then, we’re still dealing with a market that’s waiting for its next catalyst. As always, I’m going to let the market open and see where the opening ranges land before making any big assumptions. The key is watching whether buyers can defend those weekly opens and build from there, or if sellers finally push price back into the range. No need to force the breakout—let price prove it. Let’s see how we open and go from there. Let’s get

Lazy Summer Tape — Stay Patientby Tony Rago The tape has a lazy summer feel to it right now, and there’s no reason to force trades that aren’t there. Tomorrow brings CPI, which should inject some volatility into the market, but until then we could remain stuck in a low-volatility, two-way range. That’s not necessarily a bad thing—NQ traders can thrive in this environment as long as they’re patient and focused on collecting base hits instead of swinging for the fences. The key today is simple: don’t overtrade it. Let the market prove that it’s ready to break out of this range before chasing the move. I’ll be watching the opening ranges for clues about whether buyers or sellers are finally willing to take control. Until then, stay patient, keep the risk tight, and let the tape come to you. Let’s see how the opening ranges land and go from

New Week, New Opportunitiesby Tony Rago New week, new opportunities to make money! Bulls put together a strong performance last week, and now the big question is whether they can sustain that momentum. The key levels I’m watching are 7,733 on ES and 29,412 on NQ. Bulls need to hold those areas on any test from above to keep the upside structure intact. With CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday, we could also see some sideways price action as traders wait for the next major catalyst. No reason to force anything ahead of that data. It’s Monday, so I’m going to let the market open and see who wants to take the ball. The opening ranges should give us our first clues about whether buyers are ready to keep pressing or if sellers want to push back. Stay patient, respect the levels, and let price tell us what comes

Most of what I do is wait. Nobody gets into futures because they wanted to sit and watch a screen, so that is not the part anybody signs up for. But I sat out more setups this week than I took… And the ones I skipped are the reason the week worked… Wednesday I took the same setup three separate times and got three completely different answers out of it. Let me show you why, because it is not as simple as being patient. Same level, three different answers First one paid the full bracket. Second one went against me and I got out for a small loss. Third one paid the first target and nothing more. Same number, same entry, same rules on all three. If you are looking for the reason they turned out differently, it is not in the setup. What changed was how many times price

Payrolls Put Bulls Back in Controlby Tony Rago Payroll numbers are out, and the market likes what it sees. Futures have pushed back above 7,762 on ES and 29,750 on NQ, putting the bulls back in a position to challenge this week’s highs. Those two levels are the key breakout zones heading into today’s session. If buyers can defend them after the open, we could see another run toward the weekly highs and a strong finish to the trading week. For the bears, the game plan is clear. They need to force price back below 29,250 on NQ and 7,712 on ES to shift momentum and open the door for a deeper pullback. Until then, the advantage remains with the bulls. As always, I’ll let the opening ranges develop before committing to a direction. The first move isn’t always the best move—let the market show its hand, then trade what

Tech Takes Center Stageby Tony Rago Some weakness is showing up in tech after AMD and SanDisk earnings, and we’ll see how those names trade once the cash session opens. They’ve both been important contributors to the AI trade, so any sustained weakness could weigh on the NQ early. For the bulls, the key is defending 29,333 and reclaiming 29,500. If buyers can hold those levels, the recent momentum may still have room to continue. On the ES side, I want to see price stay above yesterday’s close at 7,750 and defend the pre-market low at 7,748. If those support levels fail, we could finally see the deeper pullback many traders have been anticipating. That doesn’t automatically mean the trend has changed—it simply means the market may need to reset after an extended run. As always, there’s no need to predict it. Let the opening range develop, see who takes

Uncharted Territoryby Tony Rago More all-time highs for ES, with the market ripping all the way to the 7,800 level in what has become a true breakaway tape. The move has been relentless, with barely any meaningful pullback along the way. Now comes the big question: what’s next? Chasing strength after a move like this can be dangerous, but fighting it has been just as costly. This is where patience starts to matter even more than prediction. The only major economic catalyst on the calendar this week is Friday’s jobs report, so until then, price action may be the biggest driver. We’re trading in uncharted territory, which means there’s no historical resistance overhead to lean on. Instead, I’ll be watching the big psychological levels—7,800, 7,850, and 7,700—for clues about where buyers and sellers are willing to engage. Let the market open, let the opening range develop, and then trade what

ES Hits New All-Time Highsby Tony Rago ES has officially printed new all-time highs, and it got there in what was basically a straight-line move. Since last week, we’re up roughly 300 points in a very short period of time. Can we go higher? Of course. But at these levels, that requires buyers to continue stepping in and pushing the market higher, and that’s a much bigger ask after such an aggressive run. Bulls are firmly in control, but I’d actually like to see price retrace some of this move and give us clues about where buyers are willing to defend. That’s where the next opportunity may reveal itself. No picking tops. That’s the biggest takeaway here. If the market wants to continue higher, let it prove it. If a short setup develops, let it develop before jumping in front of the train. NQ is still lagging and remains a

New Week, New Opportunitiesby Tony Rago New week, new opportunities to make money! We have a gap up from last night’s open, and ES still hasn’t filled that gap while NQ has already taken care of its own. NQ is clearly the weaker of the two right now, and that divergence is worth watching closely. Bulls need to defend the pre-market lows at 7,543 on ES and 28,383 on NQ. Lose those levels and we could revisit Friday’s close, which would put ES on a path toward filling its open gap. With the morning economic data still ahead, I’m going to let the market open and see how the initial reaction develops. These two markets are seriously out of sync right now. I typically look to ES for leadership, but NQ has been dragging everything lower, so we need to see whether that relationship changes once the cash session gets