Respect the Volatilityby Tony Rago It’s Friday, and the trend remains lower across multiple time frames. Right now, we’re trading a volatility event, and today could easily bring more of the same. Yesterday was a great reminder of just how quickly this tape can move, with the 2-minute ATR stretching to nearly 130 points at one stage. Those kinds of conditions create opportunity, but they can also punish traders who overstay positions or force trades that aren’t there. This isn’t the environment to trade bigger just because the ranges are larger. If anything, it’s the opposite. Stay disciplined, respect the volatility, and let the market come to you. From a directional standpoint, bears still have the ball. Rallies continue to get sold, and until buyers can start reclaiming key levels with conviction, the path of least resistance remains lower. That doesn’t mean every bounce should be faded blindly—it means letting

MU Sparks the Rally — Now What?by Tony Rago Micron’s earnings did exactly what bulls were hoping for — a big beat that lifted sentiment across the board and helped push the indexes higher overnight. The reaction reinforces the theme that has been driving this market for months: AI and semiconductors continue to be the engine under the hood. The question now is whether the market can build on that momentum once the cash session opens. ES still has unfinished business at the 7,500 level, while NQ is running into resistance near 30,250. Those areas should tell us quickly whether buyers are ready to extend the move or if some profit-taking shows up after the initial excitement. What I’ll be watching closely is any retracement that gets bought. On NQ, the halfway-back level sits at 29,833, while ES has a similar checkpoint around 7,450. If this rally is real and

Key Levels Still Define the Tapeby Tony Rago It was a choppy overnight session, and price remains below two of the biggest levels on the board: 7,500 on ES and 30,000 on NQ. Those are the levels bulls need to reclaim and break out above if they want to regain control and put this market back into rally mode. Until then, the burden of proof remains on the buyers. NQ bulls need to defend 29,500 on any pullback, while ES bulls need to continue holding the 7,400 area from above. These are the zones where buyers have an opportunity to prove demand is still present and that this recent weakness is simply consolidation rather than something more significant. For the bears, the playbook is straightforward. Continue selling rallies into resistance and keep pressure on those key support zones at 7,400 and 29,500. If those levels start breaking down, the market

Dip Buyers Get Their Testby Tony Rago Dip buyers are about to find out what they’re made of. We saw a big roll lower overnight with NQ down roughly 3% and ES off about 1.5%, marking the sharpest test of buyers we’ve seen in quite some time. This is the type of pullback many traders have been waiting for, but wanting a dip and buying a dip are two very different things. The key level for NQ sits at 29,750. If bulls can’t defend that area at the open, the path toward 29,500 could open up quickly. After months of buyers stepping in on weakness, today could provide some important clues about whether that behavior is still intact. Patience is going to be critical. I have no interest in forcing trades early and plan to let the market open before making any decisions. If buyers show up and reclaim 29,912

Back From the Long Weekend by Tony Rago We opened with a gap down and then spent the session grinding right back toward 30,833 on NQ and 7,573 on ES. That kind of recovery tells you buyers are still willing to step in, but the real test begins now. My focus today is squarely on the weekly opens and weekly pivots. These are the levels that often determine whether a move has staying power or simply becomes another short-term reaction. Bulls need to defend any backtest of those areas and prove they can hold them as support. Bears, meanwhile, want to push price back below and turn those same levels into resistance. The key is keeping things simple. If we lose the weekly opens, then the pre-market lows immediately come back into play as downside targets. If buyers continue defending those key reference points, the market has room to build

Post-FED Reality Checkby Tony Rago The post-FED tape told the story yesterday. Sellers stepped in during the press conference, and it’s clear the market wasn’t thrilled with the new Chair’s message. That shift in tone was enough to knock the indexes off their highs and put buyers on the defensive. We’ve seen a decent bounce overnight that brings NQ back toward 30,500 and ES back near 7,550, but those levels are now critical. For bears, the goal is simple: keep price pinned beneath them and use that resistance to target the weekly opens sitting below. What was support yesterday can quickly become resistance today if sellers maintain control. This is not a session to rush. We have a holiday-shortened week with tomorrow marking the final trading day before the break, and that often creates uneven participation and tricky price action. Patience will be key. Let the market open, let the

FED Day — Less Is Moreby Tony Rago FED Day is here, and there’s a lot on the table. Between a new Fed Chair taking center stage and June futures contract expiration, traders should expect elevated volatility and the potential for sharp moves in both directions. This is not the type of session where forcing trades tends to work. ES closed below 7,600 yesterday, which puts the pressure back on the bulls to reclaim that level early. If 7,600 remains resistance, the path opens toward 7,550 for a deeper test. These are the kinds of inflection points that can quickly determine whether buyers regain control or sellers start pressing their advantage. NQ has a similarly important battleground at 30,500. Bears need to defend that level, while bulls need to reclaim it and build acceptance above it. The bearish roadmap targets 30,106 and ultimately the big 30,000 round number, while the

Bulls Still Have the Ballby Tony Rago Bulls defended the 7,600 level and protected the gap yesterday following the peace deal headlines, keeping the broader uptrend firmly intact. NQ continues to be the leader, and with the AI complex still attracting aggressive buying, the path higher remains open for now. The next major target sits at 31,000 on NQ, but buyers need to continue doing their part. Holding 30,750 and defending 30,612 are key if they want to keep momentum alive and make a run at that round-number objective. As long as those levels remain support, bulls maintain control of the tape. That said, there’s still a sizable gap sitting below the market, and those unresolved areas have a habit of staying relevant. Bears haven’t disappeared — they simply need better locations. A break below 30,500 on NQ and 7,577 on ES would start shifting the conversation and potentially open