Roll Week Beginsby Tony Rago It’s roll week, and futures traders are officially making the transition to the September contracts (U26). I’ll be trading the new contracts starting today as well. One thing that immediately stands out is the sizable roll gap in the U contract following yesterday’s peace-related headlines. Whenever we have a meaningful gap combined with a contract roll, price discovery can get a little messy early on as traders adjust positioning and liquidity shifts into the new contract. Because of that, I have no interest in forcing anything out of the gate. My focus will be on seeing where the opening range and initial balance establish before making any decisions. Adding another layer to the week is the fact that it’s also FOMC week. That means traders are balancing both the contract roll and the potential for headline-driven volatility as we move closer to the Fed announcement.

Bullish Sentiment Meets a Big Testby Tony Rago Yesterday’s market saw a big save on the peace headlines, and sentiment is clearly leaning bullish heading into today. Adding fuel to the excitement is the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO, which has traders paying close attention to risk appetite across the board. The question now is whether sentiment can translate into sustained buying pressure once the market opens. For the bulls, the key levels are very clear. NQ needs to defend the weekly pivot at 29,472, yesterday’s close at 29,452, and most importantly the 29,250 area. That’s the line where buyers need to continue showing up. Lose that zone, and the door opens for a deeper retracement. ES has a similar roadmap. Bulls need to keep defending the 7,400 round number, with 7,377 serving as the line in the sand. Above those levels, the trend remains intact and buyers stay in control.

Back Into the Rangeby Tony Rago A nice flush at the Globex open got scooped up quickly, and now we find ourselves right back inside yesterday’s range. That’s an important development because it tells us buyers were willing to step in aggressively after the overnight weakness. At the same time, wide overnight ranges like this often lead to bigger intraday moves once the cash session gets underway. Volatility tends to create opportunity, but it also demands patience and discipline. The market has already shown it can move quickly in both directions, so today could easily turn into a battle over key levels rather than a clean trend day. For the bulls, the focus remains on defending 28,500 on NQ along with the 7,277–7,288 zone on ES. If those areas hold, buyers have a chance to keep stabilizing the tape and work higher. Bears, on the other hand, want to continue

Patience Pays in a Volatile Tapeby Tony Rago CPI came in largely in line with expectations, but at 4.2% inflation remains elevated enough to keep traders on edge. We’re seeing more weakness overnight, and with the VIX sitting around 21, volatility is still very much part of the equation. The real question now is how the market reacts once the regular trading session gets underway. Economic data may have been expected, but that doesn’t mean price has fully decided what it wants to do with the information. In environments like this, reactions matter more than the headline itself. Today is all about patience and risk management. The swings have been large enough that getting caught on the wrong side of a move can become expensive very quickly. Hyper-volatility tends to reward traders who stay disciplined and punish those who force action. That’s why I plan on sitting out the first

Weekly Pivot Still in Playby Tony Rago Yesterday’s bounce was respectable, but both ES and NQ still closed below their weekly pivots, giving bears a slight advantage coming into the open. That keeps the burden of proof on the buyers today. For sellers to maintain control, they need to keep price pinned below 7,462 on ES and 29,750 on NQ while pressing the market back toward the overnight lows. Those levels become the line in the sand early, and how price reacts around them should tell us a lot about who’s actually in charge. Closing below a weekly pivot doesn’t guarantee lower prices, but it does shift the short-term odds until buyers can reclaim those areas. On the flip side, if bulls can regain those levels, the roadmap becomes pretty straightforward. NQ would likely set its sights back on the big 30K test, while ES could make another run toward

Bounce or Something More?by Tony Rago We’re seeing a bounce overnight, which is exactly what you’d expect after the kind of one-day rout we saw last week. The question now is whether buyers can build on it once the cash session opens or if this is simply a relief rally before more volatility shows up. After a sharp move lower, it’s easy to assume the market will continue bouncing, but that’s where traders can get into trouble. The focus today is making price prove it. Let the market show real acceptance higher before assuming the worst is behind us. For me, today is all about patience. I plan to let the first 30 minutes play out and use that opening range to frame the day. Those early levels often tell you who has control and whether buyers are truly stepping back in with conviction. We’re kicking off a new week,

Another Dip, Another Testby Tony Rago Some new weekly lows printed overnight following the payroll numbers, and once again the market finds itself at an important decision point. The weakness certainly feels heavier than what we’ve seen recently, but that has been the story for weeks now — every meaningful dip has eventually found buyers. That’s why the focus remains on price, not opinions. It’s easy to look at a weak tape and assume a bigger pullback is coming, but the market has consistently rewarded traders who stayed objective and respected what price was actually doing rather than what they thought it should do. Today is all about whether buyers show up again. If they do, this could turn into another example of a market absorbing bad news and pushing higher. If they don’t, we may finally start seeing a deeper pullback gain traction. Either way, it’s Friday, and the

Buyers Face a Testby Tony Rago Overnight weakness is holding for now, and that puts the spotlight squarely on the bulls heading into the open. After such a strong run higher, it’s not unusual to see the market finally start testing buyers’ conviction. The key area today is yesterday’s lows — bulls need to defend those levels if they want to keep the broader uptrend intact and avoid opening the door to a deeper retracement. So far, ES has been leading the weakness while NQ continues doing most of the heavy lifting. That divergence is worth watching because when leadership starts to narrow, it can sometimes be an early clue that momentum is shifting beneath the surface. The big question is whether this is simply another routine pullback that gets bought, or the beginning of something larger. We’ve seen buyers step in repeatedly throughout this rally, but eventually every trend