If you’ve been around in this business long enough, I can almost guarantee that you’ve heard the saying, “The trend is your friend.” This is undoubtedly true, but I’ve taken the liberty to add a second-part to it, which goes like this, “The trend is your friend, until the trend ends.” Sounds great, right? It even rhymes nicely, but does it have any practical implications for you? Absolutely. You see, markets move like the seasons, and as it turns out, we are actually able to observe which season the market is in. After all, you wouldn’t want to be planting seeds in winter, or trying to harvest in early-spring, so why would you buy a stock in a downtrend unless you knew that the season was about to change? I’ve been fortunate enough to be pretty connected to the land for most of my life. I’ve grown all sorts of

It looks like we have a victor from the latest battle in the bond market, and this round goes to the bears. After last week’s stronger-than-expected payroll report, we saw interest rates spike, and bond prices were crushed lower. My cyclical factors were pointing to the dangers of this move, and while I still think there’s more immediate-term downside, we need to be alert for a temporary bottom to form in the next couple of weeks too. That said, I am looking for interest rates to eventually exceed their October 2023 highs, and in a way, the bond market is doing the Fed’s job for them. Some might take issue with that statement, but let me explain. The yield curve is still inverted… And, the 30-year Treasury is only yielding around 4.50%, while the 90-day Treasury Bill is still paying 5.50%. Once the Fed eventually pivots and cuts rates, they’ll

Well, that’s a wrap for Q1 2024! Markets did not disappoint in the slightest, as stocks across the board hit new all-time highs (save for the Russell 2000).But as we are in the precipice of a new quarter, there are some notable shifts taking place, not only within the stock market, but also within the bond market. Remember, bonds are a much bigger market than stocks. And many consider it to be where the majority of “smart money” plays.So, what does this mean for you and your portfolio? A lot, actually. You see, we’re caught between two key cycle scenarios in the bond market. One of them is long-term, the other, short-term.Let’s start with the long-term cycle and consider the possibility that the October 2023 bottom in bonds was it. If it was, then I’m looking at bonds rallying into summertime (at the very least). But if October 2023 wasn’t