Santa Claus Rally for Auld Lang Syne
The Santa Claus rally has a long tradition dating back to 1969. This the period from the last week of December to the first two trading days of January. The bullish tradition has been long-standing, and the question remains about what 2020 will bring. Many are hoping for that tradition to continue for old times […]
Risky Stocks Go Parabolic
A Year For Retail Investors This was an interesting year because typically individual investors have very poor returns, but in 2020 their favorites trounced the index. Retail investors barely make money on average. The concept of even matching the market is foreign to them. Few usually beat the S&P 500 which is similar to the […]
New Record High In Wages and Salaries
Income & Consumption Fall The November PCE report came out a couple days early because of Christmas. It’s in line with the other data we’ve gotten which shows November wasn’t a great month for consumer spending. As you can see from the chart below, real personal incomes excluding benefits from the government are back below […]
Option Traders Find Bullish Stocking Stuffers to End 2020
Christmas Unusual Option Activity Report As Christmas fast approaches and 2021 is almost a reality, option traders are doing last minute shopping. These “stocking stuffers’ are plays that are looking for a positive move by New Year’s Eve. While it’s impossible to know which publicly traded companies are on Santa’s list, these large option trades […]
The Stock Mania Goes Vertical
Still A Bubble The past few days have been mixed for stocks, but there is still a ton of speculation in the market. The biggest example of this speculation is in Apple stock. Apple was up 2.9% which put it just 1.7% below its record high. It rose on the story that it will have […]
Consumers Don’t Like What They See?
Redbook Sales Growth Bumps Up Redbook spending growth in the week of December 19th rose from 2.5% to 6.5%. That’s actually a good reading. It had been in the low single digits for a while. If it can stay in the mid-single digits, it will be a positive sign. As for now, it’s just 1 week […]
UAL Fades as Fiscal Stimulus Trumped by COVID Concern
UAL Unusual Option Activity What will 2021 bring for the travel industry and especially the airline industry and especially United Airlines Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: UAL)? There are the transitory factors like COVID-19, but there is also the potential for more permanent changes in how people travel. For example, will business travel return to pre-COVID levels? […]
Best Breadth Ever? Mania Lives On
Slight Decline Monday Following the stimulus agreement and the worries about a new COVID-19 strain, the stock market opened down largely on Monday. Throughout the day, the market recovered. It only ended up down modestly, with small caps ending up. Small cap value was the biggest loser. You can say investors were scared about the […]
We Finally Got A Stimulus!
The Stimulus Is Finally Here Congress finally passed a stimulus. We have been waiting for one since October. Most didn’t think anything would pass initially, but also it seemed improbable that people on unemployment would be left out to dry. What really pushed Congress in the direction towards getting a deal done was the weak […]
Oil Stocks Find Option Bulls as Crude Finds Backwardation
Oil Stock Unusual Option Activity Report If you follow the oil market, there is so much to digest right now. Between stimulus, draconian COVID measures and the possibility that a more virulent version of COVID is muddying the waters. If you’ve read the blog, I’ve been pretty bullish on oil and energy stocks since early […]