One stock is up this week. Everything else is bleeding. That is not safety.

Look at the tape this week. Meta down. Nvidia slipping. Google off. Financials finally rolling over after holding up for two weeks. S&P headed for its fifth straight losing week. And then there is one name. Sitting right at the top. Untouched. While everything else is getting taken out. You want to call that strength.

Two Superfly butterflies closed this morning. Both over 100%

  Yesterday I placed three Superfly trades live on camera. Tesla butterfly. Broadcom butterfly. Meta butterfly. All three structured around expected move edges. All three zero DTE, meaning options that expire the same day. This morning I closed two of them. Tesla closed at $1.35. We paid 65 cents yesterday. That is 108% in one

I woke up in the middle of the night and knew they had to do something.

I woke up in the middle of the night to use the bathroom, looked at the futures, and thought: they have to do something. I have been watching vol for thirty years. I built the expected move framework at thinkorswim from scratch.  When the S&P is melting away at 3 AM, you do not need

The market hasn’t moved in 11 weeks. That’s not good news.

Eleven consecutive weeks without touching the edge of the expected move. Let that sit for a second. The expected move is the range the options market prices in for any given week. It is a specific dollar number derived from implied volatility, the market’s own estimate of how far it expects to move. When the

I Was Right About the Market. I’m Still Losing Money.

Being right is not enough. I hear it constantly. A trader got the direction right, the market moved exactly where they said it would, and they still lost money. They are frustrated. Confused. And usually convinced they did something wrong. They did not do anything wrong. They just learned one of the most important lessons

The private credit crisis that’s about to crush tech (and nobody sees it coming)

Deutsche Bank hit new lows this morning. BlackRock locked out redemptions on their private credit funds. Morgan Stanley just did the same thing. And I’m sitting here thinking: does anybody understand what this means for tech? Let me connect some dots for you. Who do you think is financing all these AI data centers? “Here’s

The Day Hurricane Katrina Made Me Turn Off CNBC Forever

Fifteen years ago, Hurricane Katrina taught me everything I needed to know about markets and news. Haven’t watched financial television since. Not because I’m stubborn. Because that storm cost me money and showed me how the game really works. The “Smart” Hurricane Trade Back then, I was trading with Tom Sosnoff. We’re looking at weather