The Block Trade on Intel That Called a 20% Move Six Weeks Early
A $700,000 call sweep hit Intel on March 25th. The stock was up 7 to 10 percent that day on AI and chip sector optimism. Most people looked at that move and thought they had missed the trade. I was looking at the options flow. Call volume ran at 55 to 64 percent of total […]
The Traders Who Made the Most Money This Week Were Already In.
The traders who made the most money this week did not buy when the news hit. They were already in. The Strait of Hormuz opened, the Dow ripped 900 points, and the people who captured that move were positioned before any of it happened. The question is how they knew. This is not a new […]
The Market Moved on Its Own Schedule. Were You Already Planted?
Yesterday afternoon, before the sirens went off, I got outside and planted. Fertilized the fruit trees. Got some seeds in the ground. My neighbor waited. This morning his basement floor was floating and his garden was a mud pit. Mine had exactly what it needed: seeds in the ground and enough water to germinate. Nature […]
The Rally in Microsoft and Amazon This Morning Is Not What You Think It Is.
You’re trading with the memory of a fly. Seven seconds. That is roughly how long the algorithmic systems driving this market hold a thought before they are on to the next one. And if you have been watching the rally in Microsoft and Amazon this morning, you are watching exactly that in motion. Here is […]
Institutions Bought These Before the Move. Here Is What They Are Buying Now.
When institutions move, they leave tracks. Most traders never see them. The BlockHunter console is built specifically to find them. Here is what that looks like in practice. On March 25th, the console flagged significant call option buying in semiconductors. Institutional blocks of calls, bought in size, at levels that told you exactly where the […]
Four reasons the rally happened, one signal that tells you where the money is going next
The market exploded overnight. My reaction was: what took so long. I have been waiting for this bounce. I needed it to take profits on my longs, reload some shorts, and position for what comes next. This morning gave me exactly that opportunity. Before you start celebrating, let me give you the full picture. Four […]
Here’s Why The Market Won’t Recover When The War Ends.
The NASDAQ was already in decline in February. There was no war then. I want to say that one more time because it is getting lost in all the Iran headlines. The NASDAQ started rolling over before the first shot was fired. Microsoft was putting pressure on the index before any geopolitical event kicked off. […]
You Have Been Reading FedWatch Wrong. Here Is What It Actually Says.
Nobody told you what FedWatch actually is. You have looked at it a hundred times. You see the percentages and you assume the CME has a team of economists working that out. That is not what is happening. Not even close. Those probabilities come directly from Fed Funds futures, a real traded contract where professional […]
TSLA 120%. AVGO 100%. Same morning. Here is how.
400,000 SPX contracts traded before the cash open this morning. You think the volatility is over? Look at that number and tell me with a straight face things have quieted down. They have not. Which is exactly why I waited. Yesterday, an hour before the close, I put on two Superfly trades. Tesla and Broadcom.
The biggest rallies in history happen in the middle of down markets.
In the middle of every serious down market, something happens that catches everyone off guard. A rip. Not a bounce. A rip. The kind of move where the S&P is up 140 points in a single session and every short in the market is scrambling to cover. The kind of day where people who have