Hey there, Gianni here.
Politicians love to tell you how important they are. Makes you wanna throw up, honestly.
I’ve traded through every government shutdown since 2013, and here’s what I’ve learned: these people create drama because they think the world revolves around them.
It doesn’t.
What actually happens to your money:
- 2013: Markets basically shrugged, up 1.5% during the 16-day tantrum
- 2018: Up 10%+ but that was recovery from the Fed freakout, not shutdown magic
- Historical reality: About half the time you make money, half the time you don’t
Look, I’m not gonna lie to you and say it’s “free money” – that’s the kind of BS politicians pull.
But here’s what drives me crazy: the FEAR they try to create.
The real numbers: Across 21 shutdowns since 1976, average return is about 0.3%. Nothing. But in the 12 months AFTER? 17% average gains.
You know why? Because the economy doesn’t need these people as much as they think it does.
What I actually do: When the VIX spikes 10-20% on shutdown headlines, I’m shopping.
Not because it’s guaranteed money, but because quality companies keep making money whether Congress shows up to work or not.
Tech names especially – Microsoft doesn’t care if some bureaucrat in DC takes a vacation.
The pattern that matters: Temporary noise, then back to business. GDP impact? Maybe 0.1% per week. Your portfolio impact? Depends on whether you panic or stay focused on what actually drives markets.
Bottom line: Don’t let politicians convince you they control your wealth. They don’t. Trade the price action, not their theater.
Stay Sharp,
Gianni Di Poce
