What the hell happened this morning?
I’m sitting here a couple hours into 2026, and I just watched something I haven’t seen in years. The overnight futures were screaming – up huge, decent volume, everything pointing to a strong open.
Then retail walked in at 9:30 and said “nope.” Wiped out 10 handles like the overnight never existed.
This isn’t some holiday hangover. This is the new reality, and most of you are still playing by the old rules.
The Futures Don’t Mean Sh*t Anymore
For decades, if futures were up 30 handles overnight, you knew what the cash open would look like. That playbook just got torched.
Retail order flow now piles in right at the bell and completely overwrites whatever happened overnight. Nobody gives a damn what we did in the futures anymore.
Real price discovery happens when retail shows up with their call-buying agenda focused on three stocks: Nvidia, Tesla, Google. That’s it. If they’re feeling frisky about chips, we rally. If not, we’re going nowhere.
We’re Sitting on a Powder Keg
Here’s what’s really got my attention: we’ve been range-bound for six weeks, building up this massive snowball of risk.
Every day we stay in this 100-point box, we’re loading more ammunition. When this thing breaks – and it will break – it’s going to be violent as hell.
With retail driving everything, the catalyst could be anything. Some analyst changes their Nvidia price target, the whole market explodes.
How I’m Thinking About This
I’m not trying to predict direction anymore. I’m preparing for chaos.
Position sizing is everything now. When this volatility box finally blows, being right about direction won’t save you if you’re sized wrong.
I’ve seen this movie before. It always ends with half of you in tears.
Make sure you’re in the right half.
To your success,
Don Kaufman
