QS Finds Bullish Interest on Solid State Battery Outlook

In December I posted on the potential of solid-state batteries and one of the stocks I discussed was Quantumscape Corp (NYSE: QS). Quantumscape is a development stage company that is on the cusp of producing a solid-state battery for commercial use. If you’re not familiar with solid-state battery technology, how does a battery that can charge to 80% in 15 minutes sound?

While Fisker Inc (NYSE: FSR) had promised solid-state technology in their Ocean model, the issues with solid-state batteries are decades in the making. The issue with lithium dendrite crystals has been a major barrier for the realization of the promise of this technology. As QS reported in December, the company appears to have solved the problem in their trials. This is a huge development, which is a gamechanger for anything that has a battery.

QS Fundamentals

As a development stage company, there is no underlying business currently. The company reports on its progress but there are no revenues. There is only the promise of the technology and the solvency of the company.

There is clear potential for the technology and only the limitations of the company to deliver on their promise. The next stage in the development is the ability to produce multiple layers. The additional layers add increased capacity and the ability to have more applications.

 Regarding solvency, the company announced in its most recent quarterly report that they have $1 billion in cash on their balance sheet. The cash is expected to carry the company to the point of having a commercial product. They have plans to open a facility in San Jose that has the ability to produce 100,000 samples by 2023.

QS Option Activity

Over the past week, there has been a couple of large option trades that have happened on QS. I discussed in chat the activity that popped up ahead of the quarterly report from the company on February 12. There was another big day yesterday as well. Here are the details of the activity on those two days.

  • February 12, 2020
    • 11,299 19 MAR 21 $85 calls mostly BOT @ $2.70 to $5.30 against open interest of 1,085
  • February 17, 2020
    • 15,719 19 FEB 21 $62 calls mostly BOT @ $0.80 to $4.10 against open interest of 403

Being able to look back at this activity shows that there were bullish expectations going into the earnings. The open interest of the 19 MAR 21 $85 calls have largely remained and provides a bullish near-term picture of the stock price.

The activity on the ITM 19 FEB 21 $62 ended up being mostly day trading as the open interest gains were only just over 1,300.

QS Technicals

After a strong 2020 for QS, the start of 2021 got off to an auspicious start. After briefly touching over $132, the price came crashing down to nearly $40 before its recent rally.

On January 4, 2020, the price gapped lower and formed a tweezer bottom candle pattern. The formation is an indication of support for the price. The $47 support level held in the subsequent retest before the rally over the past week. The price fell from its intraday high on Today as the price tested the January 6 high near $74.50.

While the near-term price appears to be reaching a resistance level, the difficulty in trading the stock is balancing long-term potential with near-term extremes. As a result, someone considering QS has to decide whether they are a trader or an investor.

From a trading standpoint, a breakout above $74.50 would indicate a potential move to $100 and the option activity would certainly allude to that potential as well.

Conclusion

One of the difficult aspects to the current market climate is that companies that have “potential” are trading at exorbitant valuations. If QS can deliver on this transformative technology, the valuation may be cheap. Realizing the long-term potential may require the stock testing the lows before any new highs are achieved. Despite the recent rally, the stock looks to have additional upside.

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