Some Questions For WSJ’s Oil “Axe”

WSJ’s Summer Said has (probably inadvertently) found herself in the position of the proverbial “axe” on oil prices.

According to her Twitter profile she’s “a Middle East Energy and OPEC Correspondent, The Wall Street Journal. Former Reuters Correspondent and actress.” To be clear, we have our connections there, but we’ve never spoken to her.

Now we can’t tell you for the life of us what she’s “acted” in (and maybe that’s our own cinematic  ignorance talking), but what we do know is that she has one helluva impact on global crude markets.

Ms. Said single handedly moves markets whenever she reports and despite the apparent optimism around the OPEC “deal”, she was out about 30 minutes ago with a story that casts doubt on the whole thing. Here are some excerpts from her latest:

“Shortly after OPEC reached a tentative deal Wednesday to cut production, a big challenge to finalizing the plan became evident. Iraq, a country that was hesitant to curb its output, said it doesn’t trust the oil-production numbers OPEC typically relies on.”

“The deal that members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries hammered out over six hours in an Algiers conference center boosted oil markets but provided only broad-brush strokes for a production cut. It says OPEC will limit output to between 32.5 million barrels a day and 33 million barrels a day, down from 33.2 million barrels a day in August.”

“The plan doesn’t say how much each individual country will have to cut. And it won’t be completed until November, giving plenty of time for it to falter.”

“In recent months, resurgent Iranian and Libyan output seemed likely to be OPEC’s biggest challenge in reaching a deal. But it was Iraq that almost blocked the agreement Wednesday by objecting to the oil-production data OPEC generally uses to determine how much each country can produce, say people familiar with the matter. Iraq says the information, which is compiled by independent analysts, under reports Iraq’s actual output. Relying on that data, Iraqi oil minister Jabbar al-Luaibi argued, could lead to Iraq getting a smaller share of the group’s production.”

Now let’s just call this what it most certainly is. In the wake of Saddam’s ouster (if that’s what you want to call it), Iraq became an Iranian puppet government - almost be design. General Qassem Soleimani, probably the closest thing the world has ever seen to a real-life James Bond, essentially controls the country; from the military, to the Shiite militias and the government.

The Quds force (which Soleimani controls) dictate the actions of the Shiite militias that back the Iraqi regulars. The US knows this. Soleimani has been described as a “ghost” - by some accounts, he the greatest spy in the world. He was rumored to have been killed earlier this year in Aleppo. No such “luck.”

Iran has apparently agreed to go along with the OPEC deal, but according to Ms. Said, Iraq is having reservations. Now if you know anything about Iraq, you know they have no say over anything. It’s a war zone. The only thing saving the Iraqi people from having their country taken by brutal ISIS extremists is Soleimani’s Shiite militias. Which, as you might be able to surmise from the screencap below are beyond fearless:

Now make not mistake, these same soldiers were responsible for the deaths of American soldiers in Iraq. But when it became apparent who the “real” threat was (Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, so-called “godfather” of ISIS), the situation on the ground changed.

There are numerous Wikileaks documents linking the Bush administration to cooperation with Soleimani. Just look them up.

This is made all the more complex by the Kurds who, in cahoots with the Erdogan government in Turkey (which is exceptionally ironic given Erdogan’s legendary hate for the Kurds) pump hundreds of thousand of bbls of oil per day to Ceyhan in Turkey, a port with ties to Erdogan’s son. This is no conspiracy theory. It’s fact.

And so, with Seema Said reporting that Iraq is recalcitrant. And with Iraq being a de facto colony of Iran, is Tehran simply using its influence in Baghdad to manipulate the “freeze/cut”?