Gianni Di Poce is holding the most cash he has carried since February. He refuses to short this bounce.
He is waiting for a systematic reset. That reset changes his entire playbook.
Stocks rebounded hard today. Gianni does not believe it.
He sees risk off signals stacking up beneath the surface. The energy sector has led the market for two straight weeks.
The bond market keeps flashing stress. Credit spreads are widening. Junk bonds are struggling while corporate debt gets sold hard.
The dollar is ripping too. Dollar yen just broke to fresh multi decade highs while the euro tumbles.
Those are not the readings of a healthy tape.
The one level he wants
Gianni has a number in mind. He wants the S&P 500 down at 7,300 to 7,400.
At that level the math flips. Risk reward tilts heavily back toward the bulls.
He calls it the best buying opportunity for stocks since the March low.
Here is the contrarian part. Gianni expects software to lead the next rally.
Software has been the darkest corner of tech. AI keeps getting blamed for making it obsolete.
Gianni thinks those fears are overblown. Narrative follows price, not the reverse.
As software recovers, the story shifts to winners and losers. The companies that leverage AI become stronger. The ones AI makes redundant fall away.
In tonight’s video, Gianni walks through the exact names and setups he is stalking:
- Gianni likes Microsoft and Palantir for their risk reward back to the upside. Both are lagging software names he expects to lead the next leg.
- He closed Nvidia call options for a 33% gain right before the recent sell off. He is keen to re enter if chips go sideways and let Nvidia resume leadership.
- He is long Tesla into tomorrow’s earnings, sitting on technical support. The trend is messy with higher lows and lower highs since the March low, so he is not adding.
- He wants SpaceX but not yet. His downside targets sit between $80 and $100, and he reminds viewers that IPO really means it is probably overpriced.
The catalyst that sets the trap
Next week brings the trigger. Mega cap tech earnings keep rolling out.
The Fed also meets. Gianni sees an event catalyst for a low to form.
The market is waiting on guidance from Kevin Warsh. Gianni is not adding aggressively into this bounce because he expects a cleaner entry days from now.
The opportunity is coming to the patient. Gianni has his finger on the trigger and his cash ready.
