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They sold you peace for the 524th time

The market does not need a real reason to rally. It just needs an excuse.

Monday it got one. Peace, allegedly, for what feels like the 524th time. We have been through this same peace process so many times I have lost count, and the market priced it in, ripped higher, and called it a day. How many times do we have to mention the same damn peace?

Here is the tell that it is nonsense. Look at what is actually green. Meta was one of the big movers. Now explain to me what Meta has to do with a ceasefire in Iran. They are not exactly on the front lines over there.

The story people tell themselves is that lower fuel prices help. So more folks are going to do stupid things on Facebook, post pictures of gasoline prices on Instagram, and that is worth a 4% pop? Come on.

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The reason behind the move and the move itself have almost nothing to do with each other. The market was just looking for a reason to rally, and peace was the one lying around.

So do not overthink it. Do not build a trade on the headline, because the headline is not why anything is moving.

Here is what you build a trade on instead. The logic. When I take a long shot, I know going in it might be a one-in-three chance, and that is fine. It is fine because I understand the math before I ever click the button. A one-in-three hitter who knows he is a one-in-three hitter is dangerous. The guy who thinks every swing should connect is the one who blows up.

Think about a batting average. If you are hitting .300, you are failing seven times out of ten, and you are also one of the best hitters in the league.

The trick is knowing your number and sizing for it, so that the misses are survivable and the hits actually count. Then you step up to the plate and do it again tomorrow.

That is the entire difference.

The amateur needs to be right and needs a story to explain why. The professional just needs the logic of the trade to make sense and the discipline to take the next at-bat after a strikeout.

The narrative will change a hundred more times this year. Peace, war, cuts, hikes, whatever sells that day. None of it is your edge. Your edge is the math, and the patience to keep swinging your way.

I break down how I separate the noise from the actual trade every morning, especially in a week with this much of it flying around.

See how I cut through it.

To your success,

Don Kaufman

	Today
08.30	OJ & Mac \| Overnight review \| FREE SESSION 08.30 09.20 Don Kaufman \| Early volatility 09.20 10.30
09.00
09.30
10.00
10.30	Jeff Bierman \| Market structure 10.30 11.30
11.00	Jeff Bierman \| Market structure 10.30 11.30
11.30	Brandon Chapman \| Ghost Hour 11.30 12.30
12.00	Brandon Chapman \| Ghost Hour 11.30 12.30
12.30	Gianni Di Poce \| Macro overview 12.30 13.15 Corey Rosenbloom \| Options tactics 13.15 14.00
13.00
13.30
14.00	Tony Rago \| Futures Trading 14.00 15.00
14.30	Tony Rago \| Futures Trading 14.00 15.00
15.00	Blake Young & Mac Holbrook \| Market wrap 15.00 16.00
15.30	Blake Young & Mac Holbrook \| Market wrap 15.00 16.00