Hey trader,
Why is it that some stocks with a high short float go parabolic while others remain stuck in the mud?
It all comes down to one concept: the supply of shares.
And once you understand how this works, you’ll be able to identify better candidates for incredible squeezes…
…just like Avis (CAR), which has gone from <$100 to over $700 in a matter of weeks.
But before we get ahead of ourselves, I want you to notice that I said “supply” rather than float (IE the number of shares available for trading).
There’s a reason for that.
Shares leave circulation in ways that never appear in any headline number: Dealer hedging, institutional put selling, and concentrated ownership all pull stock out of the tradeable pool without adjusting the official float figure.
Avis Budget Group is running more than 20% in a single session right now because of exactly this dynamic.
The stock has 30 million shares outstanding, trading 5 million a day. Yet, it’s going bananas.
Why? The supply of shares.
And today, I’m going to show you not only how this works, but one candidate that showed up on the Block Hunter Console that could be the next big mover.
How Supply Actually Gets Constrained
The float is calculated by taking shares outstanding and subtracting restricted shares. That gives you the tradeable pool.
But it does not account for shares that have left circulation through market mechanics.
Three things pull shares out of the pool without changing the official float.
The first is dealer hedging. When an institution sells a large put position, the market maker takes the other side and holds long puts with negative delta.
To stay neutral, the dealer buys stock. Those shares absorb into the hedge and are no longer available to borrow.
The second is institutional accumulation through options. A large holder who sells puts and carries them to expiration in the money forces the dealer to deliver shares, removing them from circulation in a single event.
The third is concentrated ownership. When a handful of institutions control most of the outstanding shares with no motivation to sell, the lendable pool shrinks far below what the float suggests.
When all three conditions overlap on a low-float stock with heavy short interest, the setup for an extreme move is in place.
What Avis Proved
Block Hunter captured a 10,000-contract position in Avis where someone sold puts at the $110 strike and calls at the $150 strike in a single print.
Two institutional holders controlled the majority of outstanding shares. Short interest was elevated against a small float.
When those $110 puts expired in the money on March 20th, the dealer had to deliver one million shares.
Avis closed at $99.90 that session and at $107 the next. The stock went parabolic from there.
The 20%-plus single-session moves that followed were the product of a supply crunch that had been building for months before price reflected it.
What Block Hunter Found Today
Groupon is showing the same pattern at an earlier stage.
Groupon carries approximately 53% short interest against a float of roughly 25 million shares. Pale Fire Capital holds approximately 47% of outstanding shares.
Intrepid Capital doubled its Groupon allocation across the second half of 2025.
Institutional holders of that concentration tend not to liquidate aggressively into the early stages of a move.
Daily volume is currently running around 6 million shares. Critical mass on a setup like this is when volume matches the full float in a single session, roughly 25 million shares for Groupon.
April 16th already produced a significant single-session move. The underlying conditions have not resolved.
Why the Options Market Cannot Keep Up
Groupon’s options carry a volatility smile. Implied volatility rises as you move out of the money in either direction, on both the put and call side.
Buying the lower call strike means paying a lower implied volatility, and selling the higher strike means collecting a higher one. The spread is discounted by the skew before the position ever moves.
At 151% implied volatility, a $2 wide call spread still costs 38 cents.
Standard models cannot price in the asymmetry a squeeze candidate actually carries. Options remain structurally cheap until volume confirms the move.
That pricing lag is the edge.
How to Structure the Trade
The $18/$20 call spread positions for the early stage of this move without requiring the full squeeze to materialize for the trade to produce a return.
- Buy the GRPN $18 call (one month expiration)
- Sell the GRPN $20 call (same expiration)
- Spread width: $2
- Cost: Approximately $0.38
- Max risk: $0.38
- Skew edge: Buying lower implied volatility, selling higher
- Direction: Bullish
- Catalyst: 53% short interest, approximately 25 million share float, concentrated institutional ownership, early option activity flagged in Block Hunter, positive volatility skew
If the stock clears $20, close the original spread and roll up to the next level. Each completed roll locks in gains from the prior leg and resets the position for the next stage of the move.
What the Console Is Tracking Now
Block Hunter is picking up early option activity in Groupon with roughly 59% of contract volume trading at or between the bid and ask.
That profile is consistent with activity just beginning to build open interest, not an established institutional block.
The squeeze bar indicator reflects the same setup that preceded the Avis move: compressed available supply, elevated short interest relative to average volume, and concentrated ownership limiting lendable shares.
Groupon has not yet traded its full float in a single session. The 38-cent entry positions you ahead of that confirmation.
See exactly how Block Hunter catches institutional positioning before the crowd catches on.
Brandon Chapman, CMT
Creator of Ghost Prints
