Wall Street is celebrating a 16% year in the S&P 500.
Blake Young just proved that number is fiction.
After adjusting for the dollar’s 9.5% collapse against other currencies, your real return drops to 6%. And that’s the generous calculation.
Gold surged nearly 60% this year. If you use gold as your inflation benchmark, US equities actually lost purchasing power in 2025. Even cutting gold’s move in half as the inflation proxy, stocks underperformed by 14%.
Blake’s year-end analysis reveals stagflation signals hiding throughout the data:
- Gold outpaced copper 2-to-1 this year. That ratio suggests inflation is running at double the rate of real economic growth.
- Crude oil dropped 20% in foreign currency terms. Energy is the only reason we’re not seeing double-digit inflation prints.
- The S&P’s annual range hit 2,110 points. That’s nearly five times historical averages and signals a major trend change ahead.
- Bond prices keep drifting lower despite Fed cuts. Long-term yields refuse to follow the Fed’s lead.
Blake calls these expanding ranges “megaphone patterns.” They clear out buyers and sellers before defining entirely new trends.
His 2026 projections show limited upside from current levels. He expects a test of 7,077 on the S&P 500, followed by a pullback to at least 6,500. A correction down to 6,000 representing 10% to 15% downside remains on the table.
Gold faces similar exhaustion. Blake is watching for a push toward $5,000 per ounce, then looking to fade any move above 4,760.
