The S&P 500 just hit all-time highs. The advance/decline line is a dead 50/50 split.
That tells you everything about how narrow this rally really is.
I went through every major sector ETF in tonight’s video. Materials are down on the week. Industrials are down. Healthcare is flat. Utilities sit at the lower edge of their expected move. Homebuilders got absolutely demolished today.
The S&P 500 is only up 2.4% on the year. These all-time highs are barely above where we started 2026.
So where is all the buying coming from? Tech. Exclusively tech.
Amazon went from down 12% year to date to up almost 10% in two weeks. A big chunk of that move ties back to Anthropic’s latest funding round at an $800 billion valuation. Microsoft is still down 13% on the year but suddenly the hottest name on the tape. Tesla rallied hard enough today to single-handedly move the index.
Broadcom flipped from down 16% to up 13% year to date. These are spectacular individual moves. They cannot sustain the broader market alone.
This is now the third consecutive week the S&P 500 has breached its expected move to the upside. Three weeks ago, we had gone 11 weeks with almost no breach at all. The character of this market has shifted.
I have bearish sector trades on right now and they are working. I also broke down a VIX hedge that gives you $10 of tail risk protection for 65 cents.
Here is what I covered in tonight’s video:
- The S&P 500 expected move this week was 117 points and we blew through it by Wednesday, the third straight weekly breach
- A VIX 25/35 call spread costs just 65 cents right now and provides $10 of downside protection over the next 33 days
- If a pullback materializes, I’m watching 5,936 on the SPX as the upper edge of the expected move into Thursday and Friday
- I traded a Tesla 0DTE spread in our live chat room this morning and banked over 100% in 35 minutes
Other sectors need to start participating this week or this rally loses its footing.
