Small Businesses Showing Weakness

Today the ADP report came out, with small businesses showing weakness. It wasn’t a great report when looking at the headline as the report showed 147,000 jobs created which was 18,000 below expectations. However, if you look deeper into the report, it looks even worse as small business job growth was the weakest category. Small…

It's a Trump Market

In a past article I mentioned how the chances of Trump’s election rising would cause the market to decline because his monetary policy statements have been critical of the current administration’s dovish policies, which I call a Trump Market. If the current policy was hawkish, the economy would crater. A Trump election could cause a…

Suspension of Logic

After every market correction like we are seeing right now, we get to see the same S&P 500 prices we saw in 2014, which is a total suspension of logic in many ways. It is up just 2% since November of 2014. If Trump wins the election, it will most likely go below that point.…

Is The Labor Market Strong?

The biggest question on my mind as an investor who focuses on macroeconomics...is the labor market strong? This Friday we will get the non-farm payrolls data which has shown to be weakening off the peak for many months now. However, it is still showing a positive number of jobs created allowing the unemployment rate to…

A Trump Fed?

The new announcement that the FBI is re-opening its investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails has moved the polls in Trump’s favor, creating a type of "Trump Fed", with many having him trailing in the low single digits nationally. This puts the possibility of Trump winning the election back onto the table if we assume they…

Trump Is Brexit

Trump IS Brexit. Allow me to explain. The presidential election was in the news today as the FBI re-opened its case investigating Hillary Clinton’s emails after new evidence was found in its research into Anthony Weiner’s separate case. This sent stocks falling mildly. I think we can extrapolate the effect it had on the market…

Soybean GDP Report

The Soybean GDP report came out this morning showing 2.9% growth. I must correct my mistake yesterday where I said the median estimate was 2.9% because the media is reporting the median estimate was 2.5%, so it beat expectations. Looking at the report, there is a lot of weakness behind the great headline number. It’s…

Q3 GDP Will Be Best Of Year

Today was the biggest day of the earnings season with giants Amazon and Alphabet reporting among a slew of others. However, tomorrow’s focus will also be on the Q3 GDP report which is likely to be the best of the year. While it will be the best of the year, baring a shocking report, it…

Tesla Smoke & Mirrors

Tesla is the ultimate representative of this current environment. It consistently loses money, misses expectations, and maintains its status as an exciting growth company. Businesses with strong fundamentals are few and far between. Today I saw a stat that said the FANG (Facebook, Google, Netflix, Amazon) stock performance makes up 90% of the S&P 500’s…

How Are Earnings?

Going into this earnings season earnings were expected to decline 2% year over year. Earnings expectations are a farce unfortunately. Analysts may have always been lowered expectations to foster earnings beats, but this practice has become painfully obvious recently because of the current environment where EPS growth has been negative while stocks have been rallying.…