Are The Bulls Giving Up?

The stock market fell slightly on Tuesday as it prepares for the Fed to hike rates on Wednesday. In this article, I will discuss the latest changes to the macro environment, namely the decline in sentiment surveys and the increase in the producer price index which may soon reverse because of falling oil prices. Bull…

CBO Rates Ryancare

In this article, I will review the latest charts which show the speculative craze the stock market is in. Then, I will update you on the latest information on the GOP’s healthcare plan. On Tuesday, the NFIB will release its latest survey on business optimism; it has been the poster child for the positive survey…

9.8% Earnings Growth Expected In 2017

This week is going to be centered around the Fed’s decision on interest rates on Wednesday. This rate hike will be met with much less angst than the previous two as investors become accustomed to the Fed raising rates at a faster clip than 25 basis points per year. The decision on rates will be…

SEC Denies Bitcoin ETF: Bitcoin’s Price Crashes

In this article, I will discuss the latest developments in European monetary policy and review an interesting chart which shows historical real labor unit costs, but first I will react to the breaking news about bitcoin which was released Friday afternoon. Bitcoin ETF Denied The, much heralded by the media, Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF was denied…

Great Labor Report

In this article, I will review the latest jobs report. I will then explain what it means for the market and monetary policy. As you can see in the chart on the right, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the non-farm payrolls employment increased 235,000 which beat the upwardly revised expectations for 200,000 jobs created.…

The 10-Year Bond Hits Bill Gross’ 2.60% Target

We are in an interesting time for equity investing because productivity is stuck in a rut, yet stocks are levitating higher. Since productivity growth drives economic growth, there’s no way stocks can rally in the long-term without it. I think both will correct as productivity growth will likely revert to the mean, possibly due to…

Oil Falls & the GOP’s Timeline Extends Further

The bearish theses I have had for the past few weeks have been coming to fruition in the past few days. The reward for being correct has thus far been less than a 2% correction in the S&P 500. The tilt is clearly positive. Being precisely correct on two negative catalysts still hasn’t brought a…

Oil Falls Over 5%

The main reason why the stock market fell Wednesday was because of a 5.38% decline in WTI oil. My prediction for oil prices to fall because of a high amount levered long trades and high inventory levels finally began to come true. My thesis has been that oil prices falling to the high $30s would…

1.2% Q1 GDP Growth But Strong Private Sector Jobs Growth?

In this article, I will continue the discussion about the indicators which are telling separate stories. Many hard data economic reports have been weak; the corporate debt level would seem to indicate the cycle should have ended already. Even with slow GDP growth last year and a debt cycle which appears to be near its…

GOP Presents Its Healthcare Plan

The stock market is pricing in flawless results from the GOP in terms of fiscal policy. To analogize, it’s like when the market is expecting a company to beat earnings estimates and raise guidance. If the company meets expectations, the stock falls after hours because it’s priced for perfection. I have a few charts to…