How Were Retail Sales This Holiday Season?

As most expected, department store sales lost share to online sales this past holiday shopping season. Kohl’s and Macy’s saw 2.1% drops in comparable store sales in November and December. Amazon likely had a great Christmas. If you are only focused on retail stocks, then a summary of the season is it was a hit…

China Regulates Bitcoin

The price of bitcoin has stabilized in the low $800s. This isn’t to say that’s a permanent or even temporary bottom, because we saw the stabilization in the $900s vaporized within hours. However, I do have reason to believe the chance that the correction is over is higher than it was before because of progress…

The Case for Bearishness

Even when the equity market falls, it seems to rebound. In the morning, the S&P 500 was down as much as 0.78% before regaining more than half of those losses. Today was the first day the Nasdaq was down this year as technology stocks had been making up for lost ground in this Trump rally.…

Market Optimism Ending

While optimism exploded after the election, it has slowly started to revert to the mean. If you’re only focusing on equities, you wouldn’t be able to see the unwind because the S&P 500 is within less than 1% of its all-time closing high. The Dow is still making its attempts at reached the heralded 20,000…

Economic Policy Uncertainty

2017 should be a year with many economic policy uncertainties. This is because major political elections were won by populists such as Brexit and Trump in 2016. The result of this political momentum is sentiment which tends to be against free trade and globalization. The movement is fueled by the opinion the respective countries are…

China Crashes Bitcoin

Today bitcoin crashed again. The lows of the day were $752.11 which represents a 16.9% decline from the open. That represents a 33% fall from the closing high about a week ago. Bitcoin has now recovered to the $780s after the sharp decline in the morning. It had stabilized for a few days at around…

Vine Shut Down/ Facebook Mid-Roll Video Ads

The article will be broken up between the two top news stories in social media. The first is the news Vine is becoming a camera app. The second is the news Facebook is adding ads within videos. Vine Will Be a Camera App Twitter is finally shutting Vine down on January 17th. Vine will transition…

Stocks Are In The 96th Percentile

One way to look at how expensive the market is, is the Shiller PE. Shiller PE is a cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio. In other words, it is the average inflation adjusted earnings multiple from the past 10 years. I looked at the Shiller PE of the market on a monthly basis since 1881.…

Bitcoin Under Attack By Gold Bugs

As I predicted, there has been a new wave of bitcoin critics who are claiming bitcoin is like the tulip bubble in Holland in the 1600s. These critics who never liked or understood bitcoin have new ammo because the price fell quickly from about $1,100 to the mid-$800s in a couple days. Given that I…

Stocks Still A Bubble

The level of equity bullishness has been high since the election. From my perspective, it doesn’t matter how long it lasts; it’s still a bubble. Optimism is an emotion and tone of the market which can change. However, it doesn’t have to change after a specific length of time, so we could be waiting awhile.…