Neel Kashkari Argues Against Pricking Financial Bubbles

The Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari is an outspoken thought leader on the Federal Open Market Committee. When he makes statements, it’s worth noting his points. I say he’s a thought leader, not because his points are correct, but because they can affect policy. I think his latest thesis was completely wrong. To summarize,…

Stocks Rebound Sharply After Last Week’s Selloff

The best analogy for last week’s decline in the stock market is a sun shower. The market was in a streak of record calmness, had one bad day, and is back to being calm just like how a sun shower comes and goes quickly. The chart below shows the changes in the VIX in the…

Bullard Calls For Only One More Rate Hike In 2017

The stock market rallied on Friday again as most of the Wednesday weakness has been reversed. It’s possible that the issuance of a special prosecutor to look into the Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election calmed the markets down. It’s also possible that the market was simply due for some volatility and finally got…

Most Fund Managers Seem to Think Stocks Are Expensive

Either the stock market’s action has become irrational or the financial press has made an error with describing the market’s action on Thursday. The headline is that a two-week-old video where James Comey said Trump didn’t obstruct the FBI’s investigations caused the rally. I’m not making a comment on the political implications of this, but…

Stock Market Has a Terrible Wednesday

On Wednesday, the stock market had its worst down day since September 2016. Many headlines claimed the stock market fell because of political controversies involving the firing of FBI director James Comey, but I’m skeptical of that conclusion because the market has ignored this story for days. In Monday’sarticle, I predicted that the VIX would…

Lending Standards Tightening

There was so much information given in the NY Fed’s household debt and credit report, I will add some more analysis of the report in this article. One of the most interesting findings of the report was that credit card loans which are considered seriously delinquent increased. The percentage of credit card loans considered to…

Household Debt Reaches A New Record

The NY Fed updated the household debt statistics reflecting Q1 numbers. The total household debt reached a new record high. Total debt rose $149 billion to $12.73 trillion which is $50 billion higher than the previous record high in Q3 2008. There’s two things to keep in mind when reviewing this headline metric. The first…

Stocks Barely Move In Weeks

The stock market action has almost been nonexistent in the past few weeks. There has been many important economic reports and political stories swirling, but the movement has become minuscule. The movement is so small, it’s probably the biggest story of the year. There’s quite a few shocking charts I will show in this article…

Industrial Production Beats Expectations

The estimate for Q1 GDP by the Atlanta Fed’s Nowcast increased from 3.6% to 4.1% as you can see in the chart below. One of the reasons for the increase was the solid industrial production report released on Tuesday. It caused the forecast for real final sales to private domestic purchasers growth to increase from…

Stocks Reach All-Time Highs As Volatility Stays Low

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rallied to all-time closing highs on Monday. The market was driven by materials, energy, and financials. Energy rallied because oil was up 2.1% to a two-week high. The energy ministers from Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed in a statement that the production cuts should extend another 9 months to March…