Trade & Regulations Front And Center

With the first business day of Trump’s presidency, we are seeing two trends which will be countering each other. There still aren’t complete details on the new policies, but the trends are becoming clearer. The trends are decreasing regulations and increasing trade barriers. The trade barriers increasing is a negative on global growth. The U.S.…

Trump’s Automated America

Since Trump was inaugurated this week, I figured it would interesting to delve into the obstacles he will face in his next four years. This a longer-term approach to economics then I usually take. The reason it is worth it for readers to know about the challenges is because you can alternate your investing strategy…

Market Peak?

The market has settled into a tight range after spiking higher in November and December. It’s tough to say why the market would rally when it is already so expensive. It tends to want to hurt the most investors when they are all leaning in one direction. There were a lot of shorts betting against…

Twitter Headed Down; YouTube Headed Up

In this article, I will discuss two companies moving in the opposite direction. YouTube continues to dominate the online video landscape and Twitter continues to lose ground. Twitter is a disillusioned company which has a base of dedicated users, but no momentum towards accelerated user growth or profitability. YouTube’s profitability isn’t broken down by Alphabet,…

Shrinking Balance Sheet

The size of the Fed’s balance sheet is becoming more of a focus than its decision on interest rates. This is because of increased Fed statements on the topic which I will go over in this article. Goldman Sachs is forecasting no changes to the balance sheet until mid-2018. This would be after the new…

Bitcoin Doesn’t Fall After Further PBOC Action

There was a new report today that continues the narrative of the People’s Bank of China further intervening with bitcoin. However, the action didn’t lead to the price declines which previously occurred with past announcements. There was a burst of volatility after each part of the report came out, but the price of bitcoin recovered…

NY Fed Manufacturing Output Review

There’s been a bifurcation of the economic survey data from the so called hard data which measures real production and economic activity. My theory is optimism about the new administration is causing this difference. The consensus is this optimism means 2017 will see accelerated growth. In the consensus’s defense, optimism usually does mean growth will…

The Fed Likely Won’t Raise Rates In 2017

As I mentioned in my last article, the reflation trade has stalled and is now starting to reverse. The country was relieved the election was over so survey results were off the charts in terms of optimism. I showed you how some surveys showed firms not claiming they saw any boost in sales, but they…

Reversal Of The Trump Trade

Today the market is playing out as I projected. The leaders of the market, the financials and small caps, are selling off. The KBW bank index was down 3.43% and the Russell 2000 was down 1.44%. The initial hype that Trump would cut regulations to help these stocks became overheated. The market was expecting these…

How Were Retail Sales This Holiday Season?

As most expected, department store sales lost share to online sales this past holiday shopping season. Kohl’s and Macy’s saw 2.1% drops in comparable store sales in November and December. Amazon likely had a great Christmas. If you are only focused on retail stocks, then a summary of the season is it was a hit…