Tariff Threats Yet Still Record Highs
Tariff Threats - Again Tariff Threats - I’m amazed at how the market isn’t reacting to the tariff threats President Trump is making since he has already implemented some small ones. At a campaign rally in West Virginia, President Trump repeated his threats to tax European cars. He said, "We're going to put a 25…
Consumer Sentiment Reports & Philly Fed Both Weak
Consumer Sentiment and Spending Consumer Sentiment - As online shopping gets close to the double digits as a percentage of overall retail sales, the fate of online shopping becomes the fate of the overall market. Since online shopping is growing faster than physical stores, its importance to growth is larger than its share. On a…
Yield Curve Flattens As Stocks Near Record High
Yield Curve Flattens Again Yield Curve - Even though the stock market is within 1% of its record high, the 10 year yield fell 4 basis points to 2.82% on Monday as it is following my prediction. Growth probably won’t get much higher than where it was in Q2 and inflation will decelerate after it…
Productivity Growth Accelerates While Unit Labor Cost Declines
Productivity Growth Improvement Productivity Growth - Another stat which has been in the doldrums in this expansion is productivity growth. Low productivity growth has been called an impediment to real wage growth. It has been so low this recovery, some complain productivity isn’t been measured correctly. By ‘eyeballing’ the economy, some skeptics claim it’s unlikely…
Momentum Stocks Look Weak; Nvidia & Tesla Crater
Momentum - Stocks End The Week On A Positive Note Momentum - This week continued the streak of avoiding a 1% daily move in the S&P 500. However, it was a relatively topsy turvy week for stocks as there were two pullbacks. The week ended up nicely since stocks were up on Friday. The S&P…
Wal-Mart Powers Equities Higher On Thursday
Wal-Mart Spikes On Great Earnings Wal-Mart is no longer a growth stock which can keep up with the returns from the FAANG names. However, it is always worth reviewing its earnings report. It's a great barometer for the health of the consumer since it is the biggest retailer in America. The great report confirms the…
Retail Sales Report- Great July
Retail Sales - Very Strong July Retail sales - the reports have mostly been good. I reviewed the strong Empire Fed reading in a previous article. Now let’s look at the great July retail sales report. The bad news is the June reading was revised lower and the good news is the July reading beat…
Emerging Markets Crater 2.93%
Emerging Markets - Stocks Fall Back On Wednesday Emerging markets - Wednesday reversed the gains from Tuesday as the S&P 500 was down 0.76%, the Nasdaq was down 1.23%, and the Russell 2000 was down 1.29%. The VIX was up 9.99% to 14.64. The good news is the CNN Fear and Greed index fell to…
Tail Risks Reviews: China Is Number 1
Tail Risks: Trade War Tail risks for August - the monthly Merrill Lynch fund manager survey is out. As you can see from the chart below, the August risks have changed from July. The risk of a trade war is about the same. This makes sense because there hasn’t been a resolution nor an escalation…
Dollar Rallies to Its Highest Point Since June 2017
Dollar Rallies - Stocks Rebound On Tuesday Dollar is set against the world stage. The word contagion was used constantly in the media on Monday. Anything is possible, but it was always extremely unlikely that a Turkish collapse would hurt the stability of the EU. And certainly not the stability of the dollar. It looks…
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