Is Bannon a Mistake?

In the past 10 days since Trump was elected, there has been a mass scramble by investors and traders to determine what his policies will mean for the country as well as asset prices. I had an inkling that Trump’s presidency would not be what voters hoped for because he’s pursuing failed economic policies, but…

Russell 2000 RUT Hits New Highs

The Russell 2000 (RUT) continues to rally to unprecedented heights. This 13.5% rally is the largest rally since March 2009 which was the start of the bull market. The dollar index is also rallying again today. It reached 13.5 year highs. My leanings are against both rallies particularly the one in the Russell 2000. My…

Will Facebook & Twitter Edit The News?

The big question facing social media firms Twitter and Facebook and to a lesser extent Snapchat and YouTube is what type of company they want to be. They can either be a platform for expression or media companies. With Facebook, there are many reports of fake news stories generating high amounts of traffic. Some are…

Fed Rate Hike Imminent

In her testimony today, Janet Yellen stated a rate hike is “appropriate relatively soon” mentioning it could be dangerous to keep rates lower for much longer. While this language is stronger than previous statements, I have to ask when relatively soon is. If you compare relative to earlier this year, then of course a rate…

Disjointed Policy Could Lead To Unease

It’s arguable that Federal Reserve policy and fiscal policy has been disjointed for a while. In the past few years we have had the Fed take the place of fiscal policy. Even mainstream economists recognize that Congress should enact more pro-growth measures to pick up the slack from what the Fed is doing. Most economists…

Trump's Bank for Infrastructure?

It’s tough for me to follow the policy changes made by Trump within this period before he becomes President. I’ve gone back and forth on what Trump plans to do with infrastructure. It’s a pivotal part of understanding his economic policy perspective. It’s difficult enough trying to see where he will end up on infrastructure,…

Uncertainty Is Being Ignored

With the market rallying so fast, it is deciding that uncertainty is now bullish. In my years of investing, I’ve always thought uncertainty was a negative, but now the market just ignores risk and assumes everything will turn out well. That’s what I’m seeing when I see the Dow and the dollar rally 7 straight…

Trump’s Infrastructure Plan

Gauging the potential results of a Trump presidency is difficult because of the wild claims he’s made on the campaign trail. Politicians have often made claims which prove to be false, but Trump has claimed Ted Cruz’s father was involved in the JFK assassination. This is an example of how his rhetoric can get beyond…

The Big Lie

The Russell 2000 has rallied 8.6% since the election hitting all-time highs. This is a powerful move even if it is a knee jerk buying reaction to Trump winning the election. The Russell 2000 had been underperforming before Trump was elected. While the entire market has rallied, the Russell has outperformed since the election as…

No Fuel in the Tank

We’ve seen some inexplicable moves in equities in the post-Trump election trading. It took a couple of days for me to realize the likely scenario which will play out over the next 4 years. To make an analogy, Trump is being put in the middle of a bank heist where the government is the robber…