S&P 500 On Pace To Increase Over 100% In 2019
S&P 500 - Massive 2019 Rally Continues 2019 has been a spectacular year for stocks as the S&P 500 is up 6.3%. If the stock market were to go up 6.3% every month it would be up 108% for the year. We know that’s almost impossible. The goal is to highlight how great this month has…
Stocks Ignore Trade War & Government Shutdown For Now
Stocks - Slight Rally Despite Trade Woes Many the stock market is overbought. The logic to buying stocks took a hit on Thursday, but they still rallied modestly. S&P 500 was up 0.14%, the Nasdaq was up 0.68%, and the Russell 2000 was up 0.7%. VIX’s 3.23% decline helped push the CNN fear and greed…
Jobless Claims Fall 13,000 Despite Government Shutdown
Jobless Claims Fall To 199,000 The jobless claims report is a leading indicator for the economy and helps us understand how the monthly BLS report will look. Lately it has been an extremely important metric that has been followed closely because it was strong during the stock market decline in December and remains strong now…
Dow Stocks - 3 Lead Market Higher
Dow Stocks - Market Rallies Slightly On Dow Earnings On Wednesday, three Dow firms reported earnings that sent their stocks up. That lifted the Dow by 0.7% and even helped the S&P 500 gain 0.22%. Nasdaq was up 8 basis points and the Russell 2000 was down 0.22%. The minor rally and the 6.15% decline…
Q1 2019 EPS Growth Expected To Be Just 3.55%
Q1 2019 - Earnings Estimates Start To Fall Off A Cliff The stock market is rallying way too much compared to how much earnings estimates are falling. As you can see from the table below, Q1 EPS growth estimates have fallen from 5.54% at the start of the year to just 3.55% as of January 23rd.…
Trade Meeting Between China & America Canceled
Trade Meeting - Weak Tuesday The stock market fell sharply on Tuesday. It was overbought, and the existing home sales report was shockingly bad. Also, the White House canceled the trade meeting with China. S&P 500 was down 1.42%, Nasdaq was down 1.91%, and Russell 2000 was down 1.69%. I don’t think the government shutdown…
Philly Fed - Non-Manufacturing Index Craters To Lowest Level Since October 2011
Philly Fed - What The ECRI Leading Index Means For Stocks Previously, we looked at how stocks act when the ECRI leading index is down 6% or more for the first time in 12 months. That analysis makes sense in this specific situation because the index recently fell over 6% year over year. ECRI also has a…
S&P 500 - Recent Gains In The 99th Percentile
S&P 500 - The Incredible Rally Continues The rally this year has been relentless and unbelievable. It has wiped out the shorts who were calling for a recession in 2019. The S&P 500 is now up 6.54% year to date as it has surpassed many year end forecasts within the first month. On Friday the S&P…
Netflix Reports Weak Guidance As It Ramps Content Spending
Netflix - Another Rally: The Froth Bubbles Further The stock market rallied again on Thursday. S&P 500 was up 0.76%, the Nasdaq increased 0.71%, and the Russell 2000 increased 0.86%. The stock market is very overbought. Stocks rallied on the report in the Wall Street Journal that America would lower tariffs on China to get…
Global Economic Political Policy - Highest Uncertainty In Over 20 Years
Global Economic Political Policy Uncertainty Explodes 2018 wasn’t a great year for the global economy as countries like Germany and China saw sharp growth deceleration. There is heightened political and economic uncertainty in 2019. As you can see from the chart below, global economic policy uncertainty is higher than it has been since at least…
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