Goldman Sachs & Bank Of America Soar On Great Earnings
Goldman Sachs - Financials Lead Market Higher The stock market became more overbought on Wednesday. S&P 500 increased 0.22%, Nasdaq increased 0.15%, and Russell 2000 increased 0.66%. Even with this rally, the VIX increased 2.37%. This increase in the VIX is probably meaningless. Even with the VIX’s increase, the CNN fear and greed index increased…
Negative Beige Book Signals Fed Will Be Dovish
Negative Beige Book Fed’s Beige Book was released on Wednesday. It’s no surprise that the Fed has become more cautious on the economy. To be clear, the Beige Book doesn’t affect my own analysis on the economy and shouldn’t affect yours either. We follow this report to understand Fed policy. Fed’s analysis is usually late…
Stock Market Is Frothy
Stock Market Speculation Is Back The stock market is seeing modest froth. This was unthinkable back in December when the stock market was at the trough of its 20% decline. Instead of a recession in the first half of 2019, traders have been greeted with a major rally. In my opinion, investors were pricing in…
PPI-FD Falls The Most Since August 2016
PPI-FD - Q4 Will Be Solid, While Q1 Growth Is Unpredictable It’s interesting to see the dichotomy between Q4 2018 GDP growth and Q1 2019 growth. Q4 2018 seems like an easy to predict quarter while Q1 2019 looks like a mess because of the government shutdown. As you can see from the table below, the estimates…
Global Recession - 92.11% Chance We’re In One
Global Recession - Stocks Fall Slightly The stock market fell slightly on Monday as the S&P 500 fell 0.34%, the Nasdaq fell 0.94%, and the Russell 2000 fell 1.01%. I consider this a healthy decline because it’s much softer than the violent action in December. The market was overbought heading into this 2 day decline.…
CFOs and Forecasters Differ On 2019 Recession
CFOs and Forecasters - Ignore Them & Most Of The Financial Press It’s interesting how forecasts for recessions work. Every time there is a volatile market or economic data weakens, the media asks a perma bear, who has been predicting doom for years, to do an interview. The bearish prognosticator states the bearish case with…
Longest Government Shutdown Ever To Hurt Q1 GDP Growth
Longest Government Shutdown - Winning Streak Ends, But Stocks Had A Good Week The S&P 500 was down 1 basis point on Friday, so it ended its 5 day winning streak. That's a great performance because the market rebounded from where it was earlier in the day and is overbought. Nasdaq fell 0.21% and the…
Government Shutdown Causes Q1 GDP Growth Estimates To Fall
Government Shutdown - 5 Day Winning Streak The stock market is on fire as the S&P 500 is on a 5 day winning streak. It was up 0.45% on Thursday. The 14 day RSI has gone from below 20 on December 24th to 52.08. It’s on its way to signaling the market is overbought. CNN fear and…
Jobless Claims Fall To 216,000: Signaling Strong Labor Market
Jobless Claims - Inflation Expectations In November, I started discussing how the Fed didn’t need to hike rates in December or in 2019 because inflation was cratering. Now is a great time to be a worker because inflation is falling and wage growth is rising. The labor market is filling up which means many people…
Fed Acknowledges Risk Factors In Minutes
Fed - Stocks Are Getting Overbought Before getting into the Fed, let's review the market. With the 0.41% rally in the S&P 500, the index reached a 4 day winning streak on Wednesday. More importantly, the S&P 500 is up 9.95% since the bottom on Christmas Eve. The stock market is now overbought in my…
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