Don’s Trading Desk is the free daily market note from Don Kaufman, TheoTrade co-founder and former thinkorswim Chief Derivatives Instructor. Every trading day Don shares his market read, trade ideas, and volatility notes: what he’s watching, what he’s trading, and what everyone else is missing.

The Market Signal Everyone Missed This Morning

  Here’s what I noticed this morning that everyone else missed. While traders were panicking about oil hitting $120 and overnight futures looking like death warmed over, I was watching something completely different.  Something that told me this wasn’t the apocalypse – it was compression about to snap. See, most people look at a morning

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Wall Street PhDs missed by 151,000 jobs (and your 401k paid for it)

You know what happened to me this morning? I’m sitting here, coffee in hand, waiting for the jobs number like every other trader on the planet.  And these geniuses – and I mean GENIUSES with PhDs from fancy schools – these guys are forecasting 59,000 new jobs. Fifty-nine thousand. They put that number out there

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Oil Broke Above $80 and I’m Still Not Impressed

Oil just broke above $80 per barrel for the first time since January 2025. Everyone’s acting like this validates the war premium. Like we’ve finally seen the market “wake up” to geopolitical risk. I’m sitting here thinking the exact opposite. Oil breaking above $80 during the most serious military conflict we’ve seen in decades? I’ve

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3 Trade Ideas That Go Against Today’s “Everything’s Fine” Rally

I just wrapped my the Big 3 segment on Schwab and had to share some contrarian thinking with viewers: Everyone’s buying this bounce. Here are three trade ideas going the other direction. When markets gap up after geopolitical chaos and everyone breathes a sigh of relief… when “defensive” plays start rolling over just as volatility

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Why Your Timing Sucks (And It’s Not Your Fault)

You know how you beat yourself up when your entries are garbage? When you buy the high, sell the low, and feel like you couldn’t time a traffic light correctly? I figured out the real problem. Your timing doesn’t suck because you’re bad at trading. Your timing sucks because you’re trying to trade in volatility.

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War headlines vs. $176 billion (guess which won)

You know what’s wild about this whole Iran situation?  Everyone’s freaking out about missiles and oil spikes, and I’m sitting here watching NVIDIA jump $5 and Microsoft rip $7 higher while people are still parsing war headlines. Let me put this in perspective for you. Microsoft up seven bucks? With 7.4 billion shares outstanding, that’s

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Why I’m NOT taking this 100% winner

This morning I closed three winners and refused to touch a fourth. By noon, I had a 247% gain, a 170% gain, and a 123% gain locked in, with another butterfly sitting at 100% that I won’t touch. This Friday wrapped up what I’m calling “The Week of the Fly.” Four out of five butterflies

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Nvidia Didn’t Save The World

  You know what’s funny?  Everyone was convinced Nvidia earnings would rescue the market yesterday. I’m watching the market right now and seeing Nvidia’s down 4% at $187. Four percent! After crushing estimates and guiding higher. That tells you everything you need to know about where we really are. The Rotation That’s Not Working They’re

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Stop Looking for the Next Sector Rotation. There Isn’t One.

For months, the market’s been playing musical chairs. Tech. Financials. Energy. Repeat. But I’m here to tell you something nobody else is saying: The chairs are disappearing. And the music’s about to stop. I spent this morning staring at the advance/decline line, and it’s telling a story that should scare the hell out of you.

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Don Kaufman Don Kaufman

TheoTrade co-founder, former CBOE market maker and thinkorswim Chief Derivatives Instructor.

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