OPEX in Play — Let the Tape Breatheby Tony Rago Big OPEX on deck after a wild, wave-filled week, and that alone can change the character of the tape. When options expire, positioning pressure often eases, which can lead to more two-sided trade and wider rotations. So far, bulls have done a solid job containing

CPI Bounce — Can It Stick?by Tony Rago CPI delivered a pre-market bounce, giving bulls an early opportunity to press — but it’s conditional. On ES, buyers need to hold 6,800 and 6,812 on any pullback to keep this move constructive. Those levels matter because they define whether the CPI reaction is real demand or

Waiting on Leadershipby Tony Rago Choppy conditions continue as we work through the contract roll, and that’s kept things a bit noisy and less directional than usual. Right now, we’re stuck inside a range that’s already been well-defined, and there’s a real chance we simply continue to chop unless one side steps up with conviction.

Gaps Filled — Edge Still Up for Grabsby Tony Rago Roll gaps have now been filled on both ES and NQ, clearing out some of that unfinished business from the contract rollover. We’ve also got jobs data hitting this morning, which adds another variable as we head into the open. For now, price is still

New Week, Fresh Tapeby Tony Rago New week means new opportunity, and we officially roll into the H26 contracts today. There’s still respectable volume hanging out in Z25, so if that’s your comfort zone, you can work it for now — just be aware the transition itself can add a little noise. ES continues to

Tuesday afternoon, the bond auction hit the tape and the NQ ripped against my position. “I just took a full stop-loss on this trade.” No hesitation. No moving the stop. No hoping for a bounce. The market surged, my stop triggered, and I was out. I watched the trade I had been short move sharply

Holding the Line Into Fridayby Tony Rago Nice breakout above the weekly open sent ES up through 6,926, leaving that 6,933 tag unfinished — and the market rarely forgets unfinished business. We opened last night with a small gap down, putting the gap fill at 6,925, and bulls will want to defend a pullback into

Back to Balance — Range in Controlby Tony Rago Big overnight range and a full retrace of that FOMC spike puts us right back inside the same balance we’ve been trading for nearly two weeks. When a market retraces an entire catalyst move, it’s telling you the auction wasn’t ready to accept higher prices —

FED Day — Two Sessions in Oneby Tony Rago It’s FED Day with the FOMC rate decision at 2:00 p.m. and the press conference rolling in at 2:30, and that alone splits the session into two distinct tapes — pre-FED drift and post-FED volatility. Early action usually stays controlled as participants position lightly, and that’s

Carving the Range Before the Fedby Tony Rago We’re carving out a clean range as the market settles in ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC, and that usually means the first move isn’t always the real one. I’m expecting more range-bound action into the announcement, but the JOLTS release at 10 a.m. has enough weight to spark