The geopolitical situation is heating up in the Middle East, and, unsurprisingly, this coincided with one of the biggest crude oil rallies in years. This comes just days after another cool inflation report that implied price increases weren’t a problem.  But crude oil’s spike alters the situation. You see, nothing drives inflation more than rising prices in crude oil – and that goes well beyond what you pay at the pump to fill up your car. And now, my concern is that the Fed missed its window of opportunity to lower rates while inflation was tame.  Let me explain…  Politics and Portfolios Don’t Mix It’s kind of like oil and water. You can try to mix them, but eventually, they separate. It’s been several months since there’s been any hot inflation report, but the Fed has stayed put on the rate front since December because “tariffs cause inflation.” Tariffs are

Summer is just around the corner, and I’m getting ready for a big introduction! Before you get too excited, it’s nothing to do with trading. It’s just about family in this case. Most of my family still lives overseas in Europe, spread across Italy, France, and Switzerland. I even have some family in Canada, but over here in the United States, there is hardly anyone outside of my immediate family. So needless to say, I’m pretty excited about my daughter Aurelia’s debut to the family this summer…  I Talk About “Time” All the Time My son Gaetano, who was born first, already got to meet the family back in summer 2023. He was eleven months old at the time and certainly had no problem flattering the family over in Italy. When I say “Italy,” I don’t want you to think of Rome, Venice, or Florence. We are very far removed

We’re in the middle of the Great Tech Reset, and many market participants are still asleep at the wheel. To be completely upfront with you, I’m okay with it – and here’s why. There always has to be someone who thinks differently from you to take the other side of a trade. Without opposing viewpoints, markets don’t function properly. As I’ve gotten older, I’ve found that spending time and energy trying to convince others of something they don’t want to believe is a losing proposition. Instead, I’ve learned that trading against them is a much more valuable endeavor. Let’s take a look at how bulls are still running the tape…  It’s a Big World of Tech I cannot stress enough how bullish tech’s leadership is for the overall stock market. Not only does it account for ~30% of the S&P 500, but we also must recognize when tech tends to

I’ve been talking a lot about the “Great Tech Reset” in recent weeks, and after what I’ve seen over the past few days, I’m even more optimistic about this outlook. If you didn’t catch my presentation on this back on May 22, you can watch it here. But since I’m seeing these themes accelerate even more just a few weeks later, I want to give you a quick run-down on what will be the biggest market drivers over the next 6-12 months… The Great Chase is On To put it mildly, the big money managers on Wall Street completely fumbled the market’s pullback earlier this year. They’ve only now started to cover their shorts, which is only adding fuel to this rally. We’re seeing leadership come from the technology sector, which is normal out of a market bottom, but even more importantly, we’re seeing semiconductor stocks outperform notably. This plays

It was a weekend full of worrying headlines, from escalations on the geopolitical front to negative developments on trade negotiations. But at some point, we need to ask ourselves, “Who is this periodic media hysteria serving?” Because it’s not helping you or anyone, make decisions in your portfolio. It’s definitely an art form to be able to “hear” what’s going on versus actively listening to it. In the meantime, let’s take a look at the updated sector scoreboard… Take Some Time to Relax this Summer I’m not going to go as far as to say that “everything is awesome,” because we know it’s not. But what we do know is that markets do not move based on facts, reason, or common sense.  Emotions – primarily fear and greed – are what drive markets much more. My theme last month was to “Buy in May and Stay.” Well, I think we’re

No matter how good of a trader you are or become, drawdowns will always be an Achilles heel. After one of my best years trading in 2024, I came into 2025 flying high. To be clear, I don’t change how I trade whether I’m winning or whether I’m losing, but to say I got socked in the mouth in January and February would be an understatement. What’s even crazier is that this all happened before markets started to roll over in March and April. During the worst of this year’s volatility, I actually fared pretty well. But like any professional trader, I stayed true to my model. And now, with the worst of the volatility seemingly behind us, I’ve made up virtually all my losses. The best part? There’s still seven months to go this year.  Let me share some of the details of this year’s rollercoaster ride with you

You’re probably hearing a lot about bond vigilantes as of late, and for good reason. The federal government is broke, and with the latest budget bill, there are no signs that spending or deficits are coming down anytime soon. But there’s been some notable developments over the past week that leads me to believe the “bearish bonds” trade has become overcrowded. Most of you know I’m not a contrarian for the sake of being a contrarian. In fact, I love trends, it’s where I make my “easiest money” in markets. But the big money, that comes from observing cycles. Let’s discuss what could happen if bonds are carving out a low here.. The Fed is Going to Move – But When? One of the reasons why the Fed has been irresponsibly late in restarting the rate cuts is because they have been concerned about tariffs leading to inflation. Now, if

It’s the final week of May, and it’s a shortened holiday week. But don’t let that fool you – there’s no way you can afford to be tuned out with the slew of data, Fed minutes, and key earnings reports this week.  Markets are already on the move this Tuesday, and last week, we saw our first real bit of selling in over a month. Is this the turning point the bears have been waiting for? Or, do we finally have an opportunity to buy the dip? Let’s discuss… Buy in May, and Stay Bears ran the table last week, but bigger picture, bulls are still very much in control of this tape. The key for me this week is whether the pop in consumer staples was a one-off event or the start of a new trend. If the former, then we should see this morning’s rally continue into the

You’ve probably heard the saying, “A bull market climbs a wall of worry.” And after President Trump’s announcement today that 50% tariffs on the European Union could go into effect on June 1, there’s yet another new reason to be concerned. But is obsessing over every emerging headline really healthy? Successful trading requires a level-head to make decisions. Listen, I’m not saying you need to become a monk to become a trader, but in all of my years of trading, I don’t think I’ve ever met a successful “news based trader.” But are we really just going to pivot over from bond concerns to tariffs now? That seems rather silly to me, especially since evidence builds that bonds are trying to carve out a bottom. Here’s what I mean… The Real Tariff Threat – Growth, Not Inflation In recent weeks, we’ve seen both Home Depot and Walmart suggest that they

Stocks are off the recent highs to start the week, and as I surfed “FinTwit” over the weekend in between my charting sessions, I still saw a lot of negativity surrounding the state of markets. Are we overbought near-term? Sure. Does that mean that we’re automatically going lower? Absolutely not. I talk about time a lot because markets don’t have to always correct through price. They can correct through time instead. And as it turns out, when we see a sector leadership board like we do now, the odds favor the “correction-through-time” outlook.  The Market Giveth and the Market Taketh Away Can we just take a moment to appreciate this leaderboard? Bulls are completely running the table, yet so many people out there want you to believe that this market is about to fall apart. There is not a single sector on this leaderboard that is bearish. Tech is absolutely