No matter how good of a trader you are or become, drawdowns will always be an Achilles heel. After one of my best years trading in 2024, I came into 2025 flying high. To be clear, I don’t change how I trade whether I’m winning or whether I’m losing, but to say I got socked in the mouth in January and February would be an understatement. What’s even crazier is that this all happened before markets started to roll over in March and April. During the worst of this year’s volatility, I actually fared pretty well. But like any professional trader, I stayed true to my model. And now, with the worst of the volatility seemingly behind us, I’ve made up virtually all my losses. The best part? There’s still seven months to go this year.  Let me share some of the details of this year’s rollercoaster ride with you

You’re probably hearing a lot about bond vigilantes as of late, and for good reason. The federal government is broke, and with the latest budget bill, there are no signs that spending or deficits are coming down anytime soon. But there’s been some notable developments over the past week that leads me to believe the “bearish bonds” trade has become overcrowded. Most of you know I’m not a contrarian for the sake of being a contrarian. In fact, I love trends, it’s where I make my “easiest money” in markets. But the big money, that comes from observing cycles. Let’s discuss what could happen if bonds are carving out a low here.. The Fed is Going to Move – But When? One of the reasons why the Fed has been irresponsibly late in restarting the rate cuts is because they have been concerned about tariffs leading to inflation. Now, if

It’s the final week of May, and it’s a shortened holiday week. But don’t let that fool you – there’s no way you can afford to be tuned out with the slew of data, Fed minutes, and key earnings reports this week.  Markets are already on the move this Tuesday, and last week, we saw our first real bit of selling in over a month. Is this the turning point the bears have been waiting for? Or, do we finally have an opportunity to buy the dip? Let’s discuss… Buy in May, and Stay Bears ran the table last week, but bigger picture, bulls are still very much in control of this tape. The key for me this week is whether the pop in consumer staples was a one-off event or the start of a new trend. If the former, then we should see this morning’s rally continue into the

You’ve probably heard the saying, “A bull market climbs a wall of worry.” And after President Trump’s announcement today that 50% tariffs on the European Union could go into effect on June 1, there’s yet another new reason to be concerned. But is obsessing over every emerging headline really healthy? Successful trading requires a level-head to make decisions. Listen, I’m not saying you need to become a monk to become a trader, but in all of my years of trading, I don’t think I’ve ever met a successful “news based trader.” But are we really just going to pivot over from bond concerns to tariffs now? That seems rather silly to me, especially since evidence builds that bonds are trying to carve out a bottom. Here’s what I mean… The Real Tariff Threat – Growth, Not Inflation In recent weeks, we’ve seen both Home Depot and Walmart suggest that they

Stocks are off the recent highs to start the week, and as I surfed “FinTwit” over the weekend in between my charting sessions, I still saw a lot of negativity surrounding the state of markets. Are we overbought near-term? Sure. Does that mean that we’re automatically going lower? Absolutely not. I talk about time a lot because markets don’t have to always correct through price. They can correct through time instead. And as it turns out, when we see a sector leadership board like we do now, the odds favor the “correction-through-time” outlook.  The Market Giveth and the Market Taketh Away Can we just take a moment to appreciate this leaderboard? Bulls are completely running the table, yet so many people out there want you to believe that this market is about to fall apart. There is not a single sector on this leaderboard that is bearish. Tech is absolutely

Stocks are less than 5% away from their all-time highs now, and the “Great Chase” is on. Institutions and large funds got caught up in the doom-and-gloom headlines, and have only now begun to realize what’s happening. But our Sector Bullseye analysis kept us on the right side of the tape. Analysis can be pretty simple if you know what to look for. Even with the market’s internals moving in the right direction, there is still a fair share of skeptics in this bull market. Am I here to try to convince them otherwise? Absolutely not. They’re part of what makes a market.  Tech’s Participation Is Broad and Deep When one sector makes up 30% of the S&P 500, it’s naturally going to have a much bigger impact on the index direction than its peers. I’ll just say it as bluntly as possible – tech hasn’t looked this good since

We’re heading into a new week with stocks ripping to the upside following positive developments on the trade front between the U.S. and China. Over the past few weeks, I’ve pointed out how the market’s internals have dramatically improved, and how we’re seeing leadership from the right sectors coming out of a potential bottom. This is why I can’t help but laugh when people pretend like, “Nobody ever saw anything coming.” For those willing to keep an open mind and embrace the nature of market psychology, following relative performance at a sector-based level can be extremely rewarding.  Let’s take a look at this week’s updates…  Mess With the Bulls, Get the Horns One of my favorite things about sector analysis is its simplicity. It doesn’t get easier than to understand that this market lives and dies by technology. It historically behaves as a leading sector, meaning it often bottoms and

Over the past few weeks, I’ve presented both the bullish and bearish cases for the stock market. We continue to see steps made in the right direction, although full confirmation of a bottom from a technical standpoint has yet to be achieved. This year’s volatility has managed to scare a fair share of market participants, and for good reasons. People like to talk about uncertainty being a problem for markets, but if you’ve been around long enough, you’ll know there’s always something to worry about. I’ll be back at you Monday to recap what’s happening with the sectors inside the stock market, but today, I want to pivot over to another sector that’s growing in importance. It’s signaling that the market’s appetite for risk is only improving in this environment.  As spring takes hold here in the Northern Hemisphere, are bears getting sleepy at the wrong time of year? Will

Stocks continued to squeeze last week, and by Friday’s close, bears were starting to question their position. We’re seeing a little bit of selling to start the new week, and any additional downturns from here will provide plenty of clarity towards the state of this market’s trend. But that’s just the surface level. We’re more focused on what’s going on internally, and over the past week, we’ve seen more noteworthy improvements. We haven’t gotten the “all clear” signal yet, but it’s coming ever closer. When it comes, you’ll want to be prepared. The Growth Rebound Continues There was quite a reshuffling of the sector leaderboard this past week. This tells us that the direction of money flows in markets is shifting, and it’s key that we keep up with these flows if we seek to stay aligned with the strongest trends. Technology (XLK) narrowly missed being the strongest sector on