In last week’s Tale of the Tape, I pointed out how bulls captured a beachhead as technology emerged as the top-performing sector of the week. This was a small bright spot in an otherwise abysmal tape for the bulls, and an opportunity to start turning the market tide in the near-term. But last week didn’t have the follow through that bulls needed to see, so as we begin the final full trading week of April, here’s what I want to see in order to calm the bears down… You Can Run, But Can You Hide? The real estate sector (XLRE) was the surprise outperformer last week, as it did better than its peers. Energy (XLE) was a close second, but either way, those are still decidedly bearish money flows. As you can see, consumer staples (XLP) and utilities (XLU) are still running the table on the longer-term timeframes, and going

It’s all about the chips right now, and I’ll be upfront with you here: The Nvidia news this week about certain chip export restrictions is a bad sign. When I commented earlier this week about bulls capturing a beachhead, it was centered around technology, and specifically chips, outperforming their peers at a sector level. But what happens if there’s no follow-through from tech and chips? Here’s some food for thought over the long weekend… Mr. Market Says… The situation for the tech sector isn’t getting any better. Going back to the start of the fourth quarter in 2024, it’s the second-worst performer behind basic materials. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand that the indices are going to have a tough time sustaining a rally without the tech sector, which makes up around 30% of the S&P 500. So, what’s the worst-case scenario here? I don’t actually think it’s

Last week was one for the record books – on both sides of the market, no less. Between record volatility crushes and one of the biggest one-day rallies in history, both bulls and bears are left scratching their heads asking, “Was that it?” I’m going to be completely up-front here and say that we have not gotten the “all-clear” for stocks just yet. But in the near-term, the sector performance rankings are telling an interesting story. If it can continue, great, but if some of the older trends continue, there’s still more pain ahead.  Here’s what I mean… Getting On-Base Isn’t the Same as Scoring Over the past couple of months, I’ve commented on the need for technology to emerge as a leading sector in this market. Remember, tech makes up around 30% of the S&P 500, so without its participation to the upside, this market isn’t going anywhere anytime

While most people are focused on what’s happening with tariffs right now, I want to bring your attention to another related matter that’s just as important, if not more so.  We have to watch the largest and most important market out there – currencies. What do currencies, and specifically, the U.S. dollar have to do with tariffs? A lot more than most think. As we are now in the early stages of the 90-day tariff pause (save for China), I want to bring your attention to another time where trade and the dollar were at the center of global finance discussions.  Check this out…  Let’s Go Back in Time… to the Plaza Hotel! Unfortunately, the story I’m about to share when it comes to the Plaza Hotel doesn’t involve Home Alone 2, but if you ever saw that movie and recall, Donald Trump was featured for a brief moment when

Bear markets have a funny way of making us stop and think a little more deeply than usual.  Trading, after all, is like a staring contest with your own reflection—blink, and you lose. If you’ve been following me, you know I’ve been waving caution flags since late February when market risks started to spike.  Since then, I’ve approached the tape with a lot more care and restraint. Did that mean I avoided all the pain of this recent volatility?  Not entirely. But let me put it this way: it could’ve been a whole lot worse if I’d tried to fight the market.  And that’s the critical lesson here—this game isn’t about flexing your ego and trying to outsmart the market at every twist and turn. Sometimes, survival is the smartest move you can make. That brings me to a question worth asking: What’s this all for? Why do we do

By now, the market’s decline is dominating the news headlines. The world is paying attention and there is a sense of panic in the air. Does that mean we’ve bottomed out already? Absolutely not. But our discipline in staying on top of weekly sector performance allows us to easily measure the market’s appetite for risk going into a new week.  And based on what the market is saying here, it’s still high-time to stay defensive. Let’s take a look…  When the Market Talks, We Listen Just take a look at this ranking table here. There is absolutely no justification to be aggressively long this market right now.  This doesn’t mean that you go out and sell everything in your portfolio. In fact, I would encourage you to be on the lookout for the names holding up the best in this environment. The market is clearly discounting a slowdown in consumer

Stocks are roiling after the Trump Administration’s “Liberation Day,” but let’s be real here – stocks were already in a technical downtrend in the short-term, and the market’s internals have been weak for a couple of months now. Even with sentiment down in the dumpster, it doesn’t seem or feel like we’ve had true capitulation yet. This leads me to believe that there’s still more downside on the table. In terms of operating in this environment, it ultimately comes back to what type of trader you are and want to be. I talk a lot about time horizons, but let’s dive into what to do depending on your strategy…  Planning Versus Reacting Let’s start off with the long-term investors here. You better believe that there were people panic-selling yesterday’s open following the nasty gap lower. Periodically, I like to tease buy-and-hold investors for owning markets in downtrends, but the fact

It’s the last day of the first quarter, and it was a tough one for the U.S. market. Traders and investors alike were reminded that a financial world of opportunity exists beyond the United States’ borders. Fortunately, we were able to participate in that emerging move. But as we head into the second quarter and I sit here looking at the market’s internals, I can’t say I’m too excited about the market’s prospects in the near-term. Can this change quickly? Of course. But in the meantime, a fair dose of caution is a good idea. Here’s what I mean When Defensives Lead, Play Defense The energy sector has been running the table year-to-date. Interestingly, the price of crude oil hasn’t participated much in this rally with the energy sector. It is worth pointing out, however, that energy is a late-cycle outperformer. That very outperformance is a telltale sign that a

My parents moved to the United States from Italy a year before I was born. My father was in the cement business (surprise, surprise) and my mother worked as a secretary at Chrysler. I grew up in a small town in southeast Michigan littered with its fair share of skeleton factories. I realized at a young age that going the route many of the elders in my community had simply wasn’t an option for me. In other words, there were no options for a decent-paying job with minimal qualifications. So, I had to go the education route. Admittedly, at the beginning of my college experience, it wasn’t my primary choice. I built a solid reputation as a soccer player in my high school years, and ended up being an All-State player for two years in a row. This led me into college soccer, where I started off at a mid-major

The finish line is in sight for the first quarter, and it served as a humble reminder for many that volatility lurks around every corner in this market. Does that mean there weren’t any opportunities on the long-side of this market? Absolutely not. In fact, I think we have new themes that are really going to stick going forward. But as I sit here and take stock of what happened in this first quarter, it’s become clear to me that we’ve entered a new paradigm for markets. Those that fail to adapt to this new environment will be punished accordingly.  Here’s what I mean…  The Trend is Your Friend, Until the Trend Ends First and foremost, let me start off by saying that I am a trend trader. In other words, 9/10 of my trades are going to be in the direction of the underlying trend. And for years, the