New Record High As Stocks End Mini Correction
Mini Correction Over A correction is a smaller version of a bear market. The mini correction was even smaller than that. It was a 3 day decline that totaled less than 1%. It’s now over as the S&P 500 rallied 0.75% on Monday. It was a great day for stocks. Even though the Dallas Fed’s […]
Consumer Will Prevent A Q4 Recession
No Recession In Q4: Strong Consumer If this is a recession, no one told consumers. A key takeaway from the November consumer sentiment report is the economy isn’t in a recession now. Consumer spending growth should be solid in November and December. Many think the best chance of negative GDP growth is in Q4 2019 […]
Santa Clause Rally & Tesla’s Cybertruck Flub
Stocks Recover On Friday After Solid PMI Sometimes we’ve seen the stock market ignore big economic data. It wouldn’t be surprising if the stock market ignored the Markit report because it usually follows the ISM report closer. However, on Friday stocks increased slightly as they should of after the encouraging Markit PMI. Flash reading, which […]
Markit PMI Increases: No Q4 Recession?
Solid October Existing Home Sales Many predicted strong results from the existing and new home sales reports this week. October existing home sales reading missed estimates, but increased from September. This was a good report. Sales increased from 5.36 million to 5.46 million which is a 1.9% increase which missed estimates by 20,000. Last month’s […]
Janet Yellen Fears A Recession?
S&P 500 In A 3 Day Losing Streak S&P 500 fell again on Thursday as the market finally makes sense again. After being very overbought, a sense of normalcy has returned. S&P 500 was down 0.16% on Thursday which means it is still within 1% of its record high. It’s still nice to see the […]
Yearly Leading Indicators Growth Barely Positive
Jobless Claims Stay Modestly Elevated Last week jobless claims rose. Claims were revised higher by 2,000 to 227,000. Estimates didn’t change anything. Furthermore, the number of claims in the latest report showed the increase stayed (no states were estimates in this report). There were 227,000 claims again which was 10,000 above the consensus. So there […]
Stocks Fall On Worries About Phase 1 Of the Trade Deal
Finally, A Small Decline The stock market finally had a significant down day. It wasn’t a huge down day, but the streak of days without back to back losses ended. S&P 500 was down 0.38%. Somehow VIX was down 8 basis points as it fell to 12.38. So its streak of being below 15 continued. […]
Fed Minutes Suggest No Change In Rates Soon
Another Good MBA Applications Report MBA Applications report from the week of November 15th was strong again. Composite index was down 2.2% weekly after it rose 9.6%. This weakness was because of the refinance index which was down 8% after rising 13%. It’s not surprising refinancing is down because rates are off their lows. Even really […]
Trade Deal on the Rocks? Again?
Volatility spikes on news that phase 1 of the trade deal may be postponed until January. Don explains the risks ahead if the trade deal were to be delayed. What sectors and stocks to watch and what types of trades could be opportunities…
Healthcare Sector Helped by Pete Buttigieg’s Rise In The Polls?
Another Flat Day For Stocks S&P 500 was flat again on Tuesday as it fell just 5 basis points. The market has been flat most days in the past few weeks with the occasional sharp rally. You’d think markets would have more to react to since the economy is very weak and expectations are for […]